We’ve already seen some crazy things happen from an MLB home run props perspective within the last week. Most notably, what Pete Crow-Armstrong did to completely turn the National League MVP Award race on its head was impressive. Crow-Armstrong at one point hit five home runs over a two-game span, becoming the second Cubs player this season to do so.
Instead of riding with Crow-Armstrong and backing his recent momentum, I’m backing a slugger on the other side to go deep today. Here are my top MLB home run props for Wednesday’s slate.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Mickey Gasper (+760)
When Willson Contreras landed on the injured list (IL) with a hamstring injury, that paved the way for Mickey Gasper to be re-inserted into the lineup and prove he wasn't a one-month wonder.
Gasper finished August with a 1.671 OPS, which at one point was rivaling Ted Williams (2.314 in Sept. 1957) and Barry Bonds (1.828 in April 2004) for the highest OPS in a calendar month since 1901.
Bryce Miller has allowed nearly the exact same number of home runs to left-handed batters (nine) as righties (eight). But the 12 doubles allowed to lefties, compared to one to right-handed batters, suggest further regression could come from a home run perspective.
Jackson Chourio (+449)
Jackson Chourio became the third-youngest player in MLB history to hit 20+ homers in three straight seasons. He is also just the 17th player all-time with three-plus seasons of 20 homers through their age 22 season, and eight of the previous 16 to do so are in the Hall of Fame.
Chourio joined Ryan Braun as the only Brewer with three consecutive 20+ home run seasons to begin a career. I'm backing him to go deep off of Cubs southpaw David Peterson, against whom he is 3-for-8 with a homer in his career. Peterson has also allowed a home run in back-to-back starts.
Gunnar Henderson (+403)
It would seem like malpractice not to include a red-hot slugger from a team that ranks in the top 10 in home runs playing in the most homer-friendly ballpark, if one were formulating a portfolio of home run wagers for today's 15-game slate.
Gunnar Henderson entered the week batting .308 with a .400 on-base percentage (OBP) and .600 slugging rate in his previous 18 games.
Henderson is a great bet to go yard off of former teammate Tomoyuki Sugano, whose 1.89 HR/9 rate was the second-worst among 70 pitchers who threw a minimum of 150 innings last year. The righty allowed 33 home runs overall and a .799 opponents’ OPS as a member of the Orioles last season, and 20 of his 27 home runs allowed this season have been to left-handed batters.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.