MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (6/30)

Friday's slate of MLB games leaves a lot to be desired in terms of pitching matchups, which is reflected by the inflated totals across the board.

Only one game currently has a consensus total below eight, which is one of the games I've chosen to feature with the Rays and Mariners facing off in the nightcap. I do, however, like another game with two veterans in, James Paxton and Jose Berrios, who have had very solid 2023 campaigns and will pitch against teams they are both very familiar with. The Blue Jays and Rays both rank top five in NRFI success rates this season.

I believe both games line up nicely to cash our favorite NRFI bets for Friday, June 3.

2023 NRFI: 25-24 (-3.51 Units)

Friday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

(Odds courtesy of Bet365)

Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Pitching matchup: James Paxton vs. Jose Berrios

This game might feature the best pitching matchup of the evening, with James Paxton squaring off against Jose Berrios. That is pretty indicative of the caliber of pitchers that we'll be seeing on Friday night.

Paxton has had a very resurgent season for the Red Sox, posting the best numbers that we've seen from him since his 2017 season. Paxton's expected numbers are terrific, ranking 64th percentile in xSLG and ranking above the 70th percentile in both xBA and xWOBA. His K-rate is the second-highest of his career at almost 32%. His whiff% puts him in the 86th percentile, and his walk rate is the second-lowest of his career, ranking in the 74th percentile of all pitchers in 2023. Though the Blue Jays lineup can be pretty righty-heavy, they actually have better power numbers against RHP, and Paxton has had reverse splits this year, with much better numbers against righties than lefties.

Jose Berrios was a potential fade candidate coming into this season because his actual numbers have always seemed to outperform his expected numbers. Yet, he's once again turning in a very fine season with consistently good performances. He's been one of the top pitchers in baseball at avoiding hard contact, ranking in the 79th percentile in average exit velo and 85th percentile in hard hit%. His walk rate is well above league average, and he's generating chases on pitches outside the strike zone at the 71st percentile. The Blue Jays rank fourth overall in NRFI success rate this season at 55%, and Boston has notoriously gotten off to slow starts, ranking bottom 10 in baseball in runs scored for the first inning.

Bet: NRFI (+105)

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners

Pitching matchup: Shane McClanahan vs. Bryce Miller

Shane McClanahan will get the ball for Tampa in this one, and he's turning in yet another Cy Young quality season, improving on his numbers from previous years to post a ridiculously low 2.23 ERA in 2023. He has one of the best fastballs from a left-handed starting pitcher, which has led to his chase rate and whiff% both being in the top 15th percentile of all pitchers. His K rate is in the 71st percentile, and his xWOBA, xBA and xSLG are all comfortably well above league average. The Rays are tied for fourth with the Blue Jays in terms of NRFI success at 55%. I love McClanahan’s matchup against this Mariners offense that continues to struggle, ranking bottom 10 in BA, OBP, OPS, SLG and 2B.

The Mariners will be sending out their No. 2 prospect in the organization, RHP Bryce Miller, who has had a solid debut season in the Big Leagues. Miller's fastball currently ranks in the 99th percentile in spin rate and 74th percentile in velo, helping him to a chase rate that puts him in the top 30% of all pitchers. He has a really good command of the strike zone, only walking 5% of the batters he faces, which had led to a stellar WHIP of 0.97. Though the Rays’ offense has been pretty formidable, they have been slightly less productive against RHP, and this game will be played in an extremely pitcher-friendly ballpark. T-Mobile Park ranks dead last in baseball in overall offensive park factors since 2021, ranking bottom five in doubles and triples hit and tied for first overall in strikeout rate.

Bet: NRFI (-120)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: