MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (6/14)

Here are some of my favorite NRFI bets for Wednesday’s slate.

Wednesday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros

Pitching matchup: Josiah Gray vs. Framber Valdez

Josiah Gray may be the most improved player on the Washington Nationals in 2023.

Over the past two seasons, Gray had finished this season with an ERA over five. We are almost halfway into the 2023 season, and he is 4-5 with an ERA of 3.00 and 61 strikeouts. In his 12 starts this season, he has only given up more than three earned three times.

I am not saying he should be in consideration for a Cy Young award because his advanced metrics show some negative regression is looming, but he should be able to get us three quick-outs.

As for Framber Valdez, he is as good as it gets in this Astros rotation. Valdez is 6-5 with a 2.36 ERA. Over his past seven starts, he has only allowed three or more earned runs in two outings and has allowed four or more runs once in 2023.

Gray and Valdez have only allowed a run in the first inning in two of their 13 outings, giving them a combined NRFI record of 22-4.

Bet: NRFI -130

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Pitching matchup: Ranger Suarez vs. Merrill Kelly

The Phillies had an offensive outburst last night, beating Arizona 15-3. In general, I love the Diamondbacks today in a bounce-back spot.

When you think about who the Ace is for Arizona, you automatically think of Zac Gallen, which is fair because he has been for the past few years. But it could be argued that Merrill Kelly is the better pitcher this year.

Kelly is 8-2 with a 2.92 ERA. To his standard, he struggled in his last start against the Tigers, allowing three or more earned runs for the first time in over a month. Merrill Kelly’s ERA and xFIP are the fourth lowest on today’s slate, and one of the three pitchers with a lower xFIP is his counterpart, Ranger Suarez.

Suarez made his season debut on May 13th and struggled in his first three starts, allowing 12 earned runs. But he has had two straight starts allowing only one run. His FIP and xFIP of 3.27 and 3.58 show he is not as bad as his ERA states.

Bet: NRFI -120