Last week’s 2-1 result made it 10 straight profitable weeks, with a 2-1 record or better for our MLB no-runs-first-inning (NRFI) picks. That has us at a comfortable 11 games over .500 for the season in that market, and we’re looking to build on our profits with another three-pack of plays.
Though we’re on the wrong side of the juice for one of these plays, the most important thing is that they’re winning wagers, as any 2-1 day or better would turn profits for an 11th straight week.
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Sunday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | Season: 39-28 (+4.10 units, +6.1% ROI)
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Mahle vs. Aaron Nola
Atlanta's acquisition of Tyler Mahle has paid immediate dividends. In five starts since the trade, Mahle is 2-1 with a 1.48 ERA over 30.1 innings, a 32:5 K:BB ratio and a 0.96 WHIP. He has also held opponents to a .216 batting average and .581 OPS in that span, after allowing a .265 average and .770 OPS in 18 starts with the Giants.
Mahle's success comes with a massive change in pitching philosophy. With Atlanta, he is throwing his splitter 38.5% of the time, compared to 25.1% with the Giants.
Aaron Nola has a great chance of matching zeros with Mahle, as he ended August with a 2.65 ERA and has pitched to a 2.50 ERA since July 28th, spanning seven starts.
The under is 7-0-1 in the last seven meetings in Philadelphia between these teams, and has a great chance of cashing again starting with a clean first inning.
Pick: NRFI (+100)
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers: Payton Tolle vs. Kyle Bradish
Before this series started, Baltimore was 2-8 at home versus Boston since the start of 2025. Its offense was a major reason for the poor play, scoring three runs or fewer in seven of the 10 games.
Some of those trends continued through the first two games, as Baltimore lost both, scoring five in the series opener and being shut out on Friday. It was Boston’s 15th shutout this season, the most among American League teams, and second-most in the Majors behind Philadelphia’s 16.
Based on all those trends, Payton Tolle has a great chance of blanking the Orioles in the first inning. And I’m encouraged by Kyle Bradish throwing a scoreless first frame, as he has held current Red Sox batters to a .200/.262/.393 slash line.
Pick: NRFI (-115)
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Gage Jump vs. Bryan Woo
I’m bucking trends with both starting pitchers with a Yes Runs First Inning (YRFI) wager in this matchup. Gage Jump has pitched to an ERA more than a full run better on the road than at home this season. Meanwhile, Bryan Woo’s home ERA is three runs better than his road ERA, and his opponents’ batting average at T-Mobile Park is a minuscule .173.
My biggest reason for taking a flier on the YRFI is the following post by Mariners writer Luke Arkins, which presents research that dispels the notion that Seattle is having a poor season simply because of its hitting woes…
Obviously, the season isn't over. But...
The 2026 #Mariners have the highest second-half ERA in franchise history. pic.twitter.com/qxqkemN5xY
— Luke Arkins (@luke_arkins) September 5, 2026
The YRFI has cashed in two straight Woo starts, and I expect a third this afternoon.
Pick: YRFI (+112)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.