MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Friday (6/21)

Friday's slate brings more lackluster options in terms of NRFI (No Run First Inning) plays, especially because there are still teams that have yet to announce a starting pitcher this evening. For example, Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay was a game I wanted to include but just could not due to the uncertainty for the Pirates’ starting pitcher; it will likely be a late add for me, but I need to see who's going first.

I have settled on two plays, both of which feature a team from the Windy City. Speaking of wind, it plays a key role in one of these plays as it doesn't look like the wind will be blowing out at Wrigley Field this afternoon. The other game features two pretty dreadful offenses and two underappreciated pitchers in a game that sets up well for an NRFI environment.

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Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks

2024 NRFI Record: 28-19 (+2.85 Units)

Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

Starting Pitchers: Shota Imanaga vs. Jose Quintana

Shota Imanaga continues to impress in his debut season in the MLB, currently boasting a 1.89 ERA and a WHIP of 0.99. His xERA sits in the 80th percentile and his xBA ranks well above league average, so those numbers are no fluke despite being absurdly low. His swing-and-miss stuff has been his calling card, as he generates chases on pitches outside of the zone in the 95th percentile while generating whiffs nearly 30% of the time (81st percentile) and strikeouts 25.8% of the time (72nd percentile).

His command has also been elite, sitting in the 97th percentile with a minuscule walk rate of 3.6%. He'll be up against a Mets offense that is pretty mediocre, at best, even after the recent Grimace-induced run that they've been on.

This play is admittedly more about the conditions, the matchup and Imanaga than it is about Mets veteran left-handed pitcher Jose Quintana because he hasn't been all that effective this season. He does have a ground ball rate that ranks in the top third of pitchers, which will help keep the ball on the ground. His walk rate and barrel rate both sit right around the league average. Also, for what it's worth, his opponent's xWOBA has been right around league average dating back through their previous 100 at-bats.

He'll face off against a bottom-half Cubs offense that ranks in the bottom 10 in both average and slugging. They also have nearly identical stats against right-handed pitchers and left-handed pitchers, so no significant split advantage is conferred here. The key to this play is the weather, as it appears crosswinds will be blowing from right to left at Wrigley Field this afternoon. I would not make this play if the wind were projected to be blowing out, but today's conditions should have Wrigley Field playing closer to its lower end of park projections.

Play: NRFI (-120 @ Bet365)

Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox

Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs. Erick Fedde

I knew Tigers right-handed pitcher Jack Flaherty was having a solid debut season, but I was blown away after digging in to see just how good he has been. His xERA of 2.67 is among the best in the majors, ranking in the 94th percentile and outperforming his already great 3.01 ERA. He has been a swing-and-miss artist, ranking in the 80th percentile in chase% and in the 95th percentile in both whiff% and K%. Batters aren't hitting him hard, either, with an average exit velocity that sits in the top third of pitchers and a hard-hit% and barrel% that both rank in the top quartile.

Add on the fact that his 3.7% walk rate also ranks in the 94th percentile and you have one of the most well-rounded and dominant while simultaneously unrecognized pitchers in MLB. This evening he gets the benefit of pitching to the worst offensive team in baseball, as the White Sox rank dead-last in average, on-base percentage slugging and OPS. They also hit righties worse than lefties, which gives Flaherty the added boost of a splits advantage in this matchup.

Veteran rightie Erick Fedde has been one of the few bright spots for the White Sox this season, currently rocking a 3.09 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. His ERA doesn't seem to be a fluke, either, as his xERA of 3.35 ranks above the 70th percentile. Though he won't blow you away with velo or stuff, he has still been incredibly effective at limiting hard contact. Fedde sits above the 70th percentile in both hard-hit% and average exit velo, and his 76th percentile ground ball% means the balls that do get hit hard are staying on the ground more often than not.

His walk rate sits in the top quartile, which is important for these NRFI plays. Though Detroit's offense isn't quite as bad as Chicago's, it is still unquestionably a bottom-10 unit, ranking 20th or worse in average, on-base percentage, home runs and OPS. Both pitchers also get the advantage of pitching at Comerica Park, which ranks 27th overall in home run frequency and 23rd in offensive ballpark factors since 2022.

Play: NRFI (-130 @ Bet365, BetMGM)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: