MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (9/9)

We have an abbreviated MLB slate on Monday, with just nine games. Further complicating matters for No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bettors is that the Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox have yet to name starting pitchers for Monday's games. That is a bummer because Chicago is a popular target for NRFI bets.

There are still some games that fit the criteria, so here are a couple of my favorite NRFI plays for Monday, September 9.

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Monday's Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks

(All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified)

Miami Marlins (+210) at Pittsburgh Pirates (-258) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)

Starting Pitchers: Valente Bellozo vs. Paul Skenes

It feels like any game Paul Skenes pitches is an NRFI candidate. But I am just as interested in the rookie hurler on the other side of this bet, if not more so.

Let's start with Skenes since he will throw out the game's first pitch. Skenes is 14-5 to the NRFI in his rookie season. A loss is a loss, but Skenes has yet to allow multiple runs in the first inning in any of his 19 starts.

Miami scored in the first inning in each of their last two games. However, they were held scoreless in 10 straight before that. I expect Skenes to hold up his end of the bargain and keep the Marlins off the scoreboard in the first inning on Monday.

Valente Bellozo has been a bit of a mixed bag through nine starts for Miami. He has allowed five or more runs three times, and completely shut out the opponent four times. He is an impressive 7-2 to the NRFI, including a perfect 5-0 on the road.

Like the Marlins, the Pirates broke a first-inning scoreless drought over the weekend. Pittsburgh had not scored in eight straight first innings before scoring on Saturday and Sunday. However, both games were against left-handed starting pitchers. Since August 1, Pittsburgh has a .577 OPS and a 28.3% strikeout rate in the first inning when facing right-handed pitching.

Bellozo should get the job done and keep this game scoreless through one inning.

Pick: NRFI (-125 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Los Angeles Angels (+158) at Minnesota Twins (-188) | O/U 8.5 (-104/-118)

Starting Pitchers: Reid Detmers vs. David Festa

My other NRFI bet for Monday features two pitchers with outstanding first-inning results in limited action.

David Festa will take the mound for Minnesota against the Los Angeles Angels. Festa is 9-1 to the NRFI since being called up to the Majors in June. I expect him to build on that record in a favorable matchup.

The Angels have hit .186 with a 28% strikeout rate as a team when facing a right-handed pitcher in the first inning over the past 30 days. Festa's 29.1% strikeout rate should play well against this group and lead to a scoreless inning.

There have been 169 pitchers who have made at least 10 starts this season. Reid Detmers is one of two among that group who have yet to allow a first-inning run in 2024. To be fair, Detmers' overall ERA of 6.14 through his first 12 starts got him demoted to the Minor Leagues for three months. But hey, it does not always have to be pretty.

The good news is that Detmers looked great in his return last week. Detmers held a potent Dodgers lineup to two runs in six innings while racking up 10 strikeouts. For as bad as Los Angeles has been offensively in the first inning against righties, Minnesota has been even worse in the first inning versus lefties, albeit in a small sample size.

In 38 plate appearances since August 1st when facing a left-hander in the first inning, Twins hitters have a collective OPS of .401. That has led to a wRC+ of eight in that split. Minnesota has not been able to find a combination that works at the top of the lineup since losing Manuel Margot, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton to the injured list (IL).

Detmers had no issue with the right-handers the Dodgers put in front of him in his last start. Dodger righties combined to go 1-for-14 with eight strikeouts in that game. I expect Detmers to keep his perfect NRFI record intact in this matchup in Minnesota.

Pick: NRFI (-113 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: