While most MLB Mondays feature a reduced slate filled with less-than-desirable starting pitching options, this Monday features multiple good options for our MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks.
I've settled on two plays this evening, both with pretty substantial juice, but I've got no problem laying it in either game due to the caliber of starting pitchers. If you'd rather not lay the juice, I don't mind reducing your risk by parlaying today’s picks, which I normally would not recommend in such a volatile betting market.
We've got four great starting pitchers in two pitcher-friendly ballparks, and I think both games will be very low-scoring with scoreless first innings.
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of BetRivers)
Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers: Ranger Suarez vs. Sandy Alcantara
Former Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara gets the start for the Marlins tonight, in the midst of a really nice bounce-back season after a couple of injury-plagued and underwhelming campaigns.
Alcantara’s 3.46 ERA is the lowest it has been in three seasons, and it is backed up by an xERA of 3.67, which ranks among the top third of all pitchers. His fastball has been as dominant as ever, grading out at the very top of the game in the 98th percentile in terms of run value and playing a large factor in his 96th percentile overall pitching run value.
While he's never really been a huge strikeout pitcher, Alcantara has done a really nice job managing hard contact this season with a 72nd percentile hard-hit rate and an 83rd percentile barrel rate. He's in pretty good form right now as well, with scoreless appearances in three of his last five outings and only having surrendered more than three earned runs in two outings since the beginning of June.
The Red Sox will counter with Ranger Suarez, who is having another really solid year as one of the more underrated veteran pitchers in the game. While Suarez doesn't throw as hard as Alacantara, his fastball has been just as effective, grading out in the 94th percentile in run value.
Suarez also has an 80th percentile breaking ball in run value, and he grades out above the 90th percentile in overall pitching run value. His ability to generate soft contact is incredible, grading out in the 87th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.
Suarez generates swings and misses at a higher rate than Alcantara, with chase and strikeout rates that each grade out above the 60th percentile.
While neither team is slouching offensively, each leaves a little bit to be desired in terms of power. Both teams are tied at 24th in the Majors in home runs, which is critical, as these plays can obviously be determined by one swing of the bat.
LoanDepot Park isn't the most hitter-friendly environment, ranking just below average in overall offensive ballpark factors and sitting way down at 26th overall in home run factor over the previous two seasons. Put all that together, and I see this one being a low-scoring affair, with both starters making it through the first inning unscathed.
Pick: NRFI (-140)
Philadelphia Phillies @ Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Zack Wheeler vs. Logan Gilbert
Logan Gilbert is set to start for Seattle tonight. He is having yet another strong season with a 3.35 ERA and WHIP of just 1.01. Gilbert is yet another pitcher who features an overpowering fastball, which grades out in the 83rd percentile in run value. He pairs that with a breaking ball that grades out even better with a 95th percentile run value, for an overall pitching run value among the best in the game in the 94th percentile.
While not quite as high as in previous seasons, Gilbert's calling card has been his ability to miss bats. He ranks among the top third of all pitchers in chase rate, among the top quartile of pitchers in strikeout rate and above the 80th percentile in whiff rate. He also isn't one to give a free pass, with a minuscule walk rate at the 85th percentile.
Zack Wheeler will get the ball for the Phillies, who would be right there in the National League Cy Young conversation if it weren't for his slightly delayed start to the season and the historical strikeout numbers of Jacob Misiorowski.
Even at 36, Wheeler has some of the best stuff in the game, with a fastball run value and offspeed run value that each grade out above the 90th percentile for an overall pitching run value in the 96th percentile. His xERA of 2.78 outperforms his actual ERA of 2.92, suggesting he's been unlucky, if anything, and his xBA is incredible at just 0.204.
Wheeler’s xBA is so low because he does not get hit hard, evident by his top quartile barrel rate and hard-hit rate, and an average exit velocity that falls just shy of the 90th percentile. His ability to miss bats is also as good as ever, with a whiff rate, chase rate and strikeout rate that all grade out in the 87th percentile or better.
The Mariners’ offense is among the worst in baseball, ranking in the bottom five in batting average, slugging rate and on-base percentage (OBP), and they have the worst OPS in the entire league. And despite the thumpers at the top of the Phillies’ lineup and their perception as a whole, it can be argued that they have a bottom-half offense in baseball.
Overall, Philadelphia ranks outside the top 10 in home runs and slugging rate, outside the top half in batting average and OPS and in the bottom 10 in OBP. Again, we get the benefit of a pitcher-friendly park. T-Mobile Park ranks in the bottom half of baseball in home run factor and is dead last in overall offensive ballpark factors over the previous two seasons.
This figures to be a very low-scoring contest, and I've got no issue laying the juice for it to be scoreless after the first inning.
Pick: NRFI (-150)
