Yesterday, Jackson Merrill came through with a home run to cash in a +350 ticket. Let’s see if we can add another winner with tonight’s MLB home run props. Check out my three favorite options below.
Find the best price on every home run prop >>
Monday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Abimelec Ortiz (+480)
The Colorado Rockies are going to pitch Ryan Feltner tonight. The right-hander has been abysmal against lefties over the last month, allowing a .233 ISO and a wOBA of .91 to his last 76 lefties.
Furthermore, Feltner has allowed more walks than strikeouts against lefties and has given up over 33% of fly balls in the last 30 days to lefties.
That checks out for Abimelec Ortiz of the Nationals. Ortiz, a lefty, has hit a .320 ISO and a wOBA of .355 against his last 54 righties. Additionally, Ortiz has hit 45% of fly balls and 77.5% of hard contact. He leads the Nationals’ projected lineup in barrel rate against righties, too.
Let’s ride with Ortiz at +480.
Kody Clemens (+440)
Kody Clemens has a lefty-on-lefty matchup against Jeffrey Springs tonight. Clemens has a .207 ISO and a wOBA of .362 against his last 30 lefties, despite being a left-handed batter. He’s also hit nearly 40% of hard contact with a barrel rate nearing 9% against lefties.
On the other hand, Jeffrey Springs has given up a .615 ISO and a wOBA of .667 to his last 19 lefties. He’s allowed a .271 ISO and a wOBA of .372 to 148 lefties this season. It’s been a consistent struggle for him against lefties as a left-handed pitcher.
Springs continues to fall behind lefties and has a 2.7% swinging strike rate against lefties. Clemens can absolutely connect on one.
Rafael Flores (+470)
The Pirates have some really good young talent in the lineup. That includes Rafael Flores, who has hit a .261 ISO and a wOBA of .384 against his last 27 lefties. Flores has a high strikeout rate against lefties, but he’s still hit over 33% of fly balls with a 16.7% barrel rate over the last 30 days against lefties.
Ultimately, Flores will face Robbie Ray of the Padres, who has allowed a .208 ISO and a wOBA of .340 to his last 89 righties. Those righties have only struck out 21.3% of the time. He’s also allowed almost 28% of fly balls and has a super-high walk rate.
If Flores can get ahead in the count against Ray, he’s got a whole lot of potential to hit a home run tonight.
