The wait is almost over; the college football season is almost here.
It is almost time to see which of college football’s elite teams (and not-so-elite) will be the teams to beat and bet on this year. To that end, let's go over some college football win totals and discuss how to bet on them. Now, the elite teams are the ones that get most of the national attention, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are advisable bets.
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College Football Win Totals Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
After a careful study of the odds, totals, schedules and rosters, here are my top win total bets.
UMass Regular Season Wins
UMass has been terrible; they were 0-12 last season. But thanks to the transfer portal and an easy schedule, they could win a few games this season. They play two FCS teams: Stonehill (4-8 last season) and Sacred Heart (8-4). If they still struggle against FBS teams but can beat the FCS ones, that’s how we can cash the under 2.5 wins.
But can they win two more games? Sacramento State is new to the FBS level; factor in the usual transition struggles, and that becomes a winnable game. UMass also plays three teams that were 4-8 last season (Eastern Michigan, Ball State, Bowling Green). Beat the FCS teams (including Sacramento State) along with one of them, and the over 3.5 wins bet is attainable.
Texas A&M Regular Season Wins
- Over 8.5 Wins (+100)
This may be the best value play in college football. We are talking about a team that went 11-1 in the regular season last year. Yes, they lost key personnel to the draft and graduation, but they reloaded well and should be as good on defense and possibly better on offense. Now, last season's schedule was much easier.
This year, Texas A&M will have to face Alabama and Oklahoma along with Texas, LSU, Tennessee, and Missouri - all ranked teams to start the season. Worst-case scenario - they go 3-3, with losses to the Tide, Sooners and Longhorns, and have no room for error otherwise. But LSU and Tennessee will not be pushovers.
If you have faith in Mike Elko, as I do, the over 8.5 wins at +100 is a great value play.
Notre Dame Regular Season Wins
- Over 11.5 Wins (+160)
I'm including the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on this list just in case they are as good as the media has been making them out to be.
To be fair, they were 10-2 last season with two losses right out of the gate in games they could have just as easily won. The catch, of course, is that the offense no longer has one of the best running back tandems in college football history. The defense will keep them in most games, and they have some promising backs that could step up. The offensive line should make things a little easier.
The rematch against Miami is the biggest concern, followed by BYU and SMU (whom they should easily beat). They'll likely win the other nine by double digits, leaving Miami as the lone question mark, but it is a winnable game.
