From an MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks perspective, we are over .500 on the season. Down slightly more than three units is a result of the heavy juice on some lines, which oddsmakers tend to take advantage of with these kinds of wagers being wrapped up so early.
I’m back to dive into some games on today’s slate for our top MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks. I’ve looked for what value I could find, but the most important thing is that they’re winning wagers, as any 2-1 day would turn a profit.
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Sunday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | Season: 22-21 (-3.04 units, -7.1% ROI)
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Starting Pitchers: Matthew Boyd vs. Andrew Abbott
The Cubs entered the weekend having been shut out for the ninth time this season (they were shut out 10 times last season overall). That brought their road losing streak against the Reds to five games, while they averaged 1.4 runs per game, batting .179, and had a .519 OPS overall over that span.
Andrew Abbott should add to Chicago’s struggles, given that he has allowed a .189/.283/.320 slash line in 106 combined at-bats to current Cubs batters.
Thus, this NRFI seemingly comes down to Matthew Boyd’s ability to shut down the Reds early. While he has pitched to a 4.50 first-inning ERA this year, I expect positive regression based on his .207 OBA in the first frame.
Pick: NRFI (-106)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers: Zack Wheeler vs. Tarik Skubal
Detroit entered the weekend amid a six-game winning streak. While an offense that averaged 5.8 runs per game over that span was a big reason for the team’s success, so too was a pitching staff that pitched to a 1.17 ERA, .164 OBA, and a .488 opponents’ OPS.
Tarik Skubal has allowed a .281 OBA to left-handed batters this season, which is a scary proposition when facing Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper early. But I believe in his 1.64 ERA and .154 OBA over his last two starts, and it is easy to have confidence in Zack Wheeler following his tying a career-high 14 strikeouts his last time out.
After his last start, Wheeler ranked sixth in ERA, sixth in xERA, sixth in strikeout rate, third in opponents’ average, and sixth in opponents’ OPS among pitchers who threw a minimum of 80 innings. I expect him to match zeros early with the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner.
Pick: NRFI (-150)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting Pitchers: Zac Gallen vs. Emmet Sheehan
Zac Gallen has allowed at least four earned runs in seven of his last eight starts, and 11 of 19 overall, adding to the worst season of his career.
Two of those poor outings came in his only two starts against the Dodgers. The Diamondbacks lost those two starts by a combined 15-2 after Gallen pitched to an 8.00 ERA, 2.000 WHIP, and walked more batters (four) than he struck out (three).
Gallen has made multiple starts against the Dodgers every year since 2019, and has not had a winning record versus them in any individual year (his 2-7 record versus Los Angeles is his worst against any opponent he has made four or more starts against). There should be plenty of traffic on the basepaths early with Shohei Ohtani (.400 OBP), Andy Pages (.333 batting average), and Freddie Freeman (.771 OPS) all having success head-to-head against the Diamondbacks righty.
On the other side, Emmet Sheehan has issued two-plus walks in three straight starts and allowed multiple home runs in four of 11 outings.
Pick: YRFI (-140)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.