Ahead of our penultimate MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks column for the regular season, we find ourselves seven games over .500, with profitable weeks in 10 of the last 12.
Though we’re on the wrong side of the juice on some of today’s plays, the most important thing is that they’re winning wagers, as any 2-1 day or better would turn a profit for the 11th time in 13 weeks.
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Sunday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | Season: 40-33 (-0.31 units, -0.4% ROI)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Starting Pitchers: Cristopher Sanchez vs. Jonah Tong
Not only does Philadelphia have question marks in its rotation with Jesus Luzardo dealing with a shoulder injury, but all of a sudden, Cristopher Sanchez has not pitched like the ace he was for much of the season.
The southpaw has pitched to a 6.87 ERA over his last three starts, with the Phillies losing two of those three (those two losses match their total from Sanchez's previous 13 starts).
On the other side, Jonah Tong has pitched two clean first innings this season, but Bryce Harper looms as a threatening bat. In his first 10 games against the Mets this season, Harper batted .447 with seven extra-base hits and 11 RBI. And Tong will have to deal with MLB home run leader Kyle Schwarber.
Pick: YRFI (+104)
Athletics vs. Cleveland Guardians
Starting Pitchers: Jack Perkins vs. Gavin Williams
At one point from July 9th to early September, Gavin Williams led the Majors in strikeout rate (minimum 40 innings) by a wide margin, as his 42.2% rate far exceeded Chris Sale's second-best rate (35.3%). He started relying much more on his four-seam fastball, a pitch he threw 21.9% of the time before July 9th and 35.1% after.
This wager seemingly comes down to Jack Perkins limiting Cleveland's bats. The righty has been a victim of Sutter Health Park, with an ERA more than two runs better and an opponents’ batting average 49 points better in road starts than at home.
Pick: NRFI (-125)
Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers: Sandy Alcantara vs. Walker Buehler
Miami's use of ace Sandy Alcantara, even when its playoff chances seemed bleak at best, was puzzling. The Marlins called upon Alcantara for his first career save just two days after he labored through a 101-pitch and five-inning start. Alcantara's league-leading 206 innings and 861 batters faced have caught up to him, with an 8.27 ERA through 16.1 innings in September.
Alcantara also faces a Padres lineup that entered the weekend averaging 5.7 runs per game amid an 11-2 stretch. That is why I'm backing the yes runs first inning (YRFI) side, despite Walker Buehler's respectable 3.60 first-inning ERA this season (which worsens to 5.10 and 8.46 in the second and third innings, respectively).
The Marlins’ offense entered yesterday having cashed the NRFI in 13 straight games, but all it takes is a Padres run early to cash this wager.
Pick: YRFI (-110)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.