The four-game series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies this week was very entertaining, especially from a scoring perspective, with Tuesday’s 11-9 Dodgers victory being especially historic. Los Angeles had entered that game losing 1,137 times in which it entered the ninth inning trailing by five or more runs. However, the Dodgers scored seven runs in the ninth inning, ending that losing streak, and widening their lead in the NL West as a result.
We had a profitable MLB Best Bets day on Wednesday, and are back to keep the momentum going heading into the weekend.
Let’s dive into my top MLB picks for Friday’s slate of baseball games.
MLB Picks & Predictions: Friday’s Best Bets
Here are our top three MLB picks and predictions for Friday’s slate of baseball games.
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Atlanta Braves (-120) @ New York Yankees (+102) | O/U 8.5 (+106/-130)
Former Boston Red Sox southpaw Chris Sale visits enemy territory for the first time as a National League pitcher looking to improve upon his 2-6 record and 3.96 ERA in 12 appearances at Yankee Stadium. Sale has held current Yankees hitters to a combined .238/.302/.516 slash line, and two of New York's best hitters, Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres, are a combined 5-for-40 against Sale with just two extra-base hits and 22 strikeouts.
Sale leads all Braves starters with a 0.94 WHIP, is tied for the most quality starts (eight), and is second in WAR (2.1). This is a three-star play, as the Yankees ranked 30th in BABIP (.186) against southpaws in June home games entering Thursday. New York does have the best BB/K ratio (0.9) of all 30 teams in that span, but Sale's 4.0% walk rate is on pace to be the best of his career, and he will not allow the Yankees many free bases. Meanwhile, Yankees southpaw Carlos Rodon has pitched to a 2.30 ERA and a .182 OBA at home this season, and we expect him to match zeros with Sale against a Braves team that has cashed the Under in 41 of their last 62 games (+20.10 units/29% ROI).
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-130)
Seattle Mariners (-164) @ Miami Marlins (+138) | O/U 7.5 (-105/-115)
George Kirby has won two of his last four starts, but he should be entering this matchup on a four-start winning streak, as he had two no-decisions in other starts (both Mariners wins) when he allowed just two earned runs over 13 innings while recording a 12:0 K:BB ratio. We are getting decent odds on the Mariners runline, as Kirby is just 1-4 in eight road starts, and eight of his nine home runs allowed have come in opposing ballparks. However, we do not expect him to struggle against a Miami Marlins offense that ranks 26th in OPS and 27th in wOBA against right-handed pitchers at home in June.
Miami did snap a six-series winless streak by taking two out of three games from the St. Louis Cardinals, but it has won just one series against a team currently over .500. We give the edge to Kirby and the Mariners, who we expect to lead the team to the 30th victory in the 47th game against teams with a losing record.
Miami does have the scheduling edge in this game having an off day yesterday while the Mariners were finishing their series with the Guardians, but the Marlins have covered the runline in just nine of 28 games since 2021 when they have had a rest advantage.
MLB Pick: Mariners -1.5 (+100)
Washington Nationals (-120) @ Colorado Rockies (+102) | O/U 11.5 (+112/-138)
Coors Field has played like the true hitter-friendly park over the last few weeks that it has been known for its whole existence, as the Colorado Rockies have averaged 6.4 runs over their last eight home games. This offensive surge has come despite third baseman Ryan McMahon driving in six runs through 17 June games and his OPS on pace to decline for the fourth consecutive month. However, all of McMahon’s RBIs this month have come within the last eight games, which means more positive regression is likely to come. McMahon leads all Rockies hitters with a .939 OPS (min. 33 games played) and 43 total bases against left-handed pitchers, and he entered yesterday averaging 1.4 hits per game over the last week.
The Rockies face Washington Nationals rookie southpaw DJ Herz, who is making his first career MLB road start, and who has recorded more than 13 outs once in three starts. Colorado’s team total odds are lowered since Herz struck out 13 batters in his last start, while recording 21 whiffs and a 38% CSW, but the Over was 23-16 in Colorado’s last 39 games entering Thursday (+7.40 units/20% ROI), and we expect its offense to be a big reason it has a good chance to cash tonight.
MLB Pick: Rockies Team Total Over 5.5 (+112)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.