The ALCS is headed to Game 4 tonight after yesterday’s game was rained out. That said, Nick Martinez will still be on the mound for the Rays. However, the Guardians made a change and will now start Shawn Armstrong as the opener tonight. Here are some market-based EV MLB picks for tonight’s pivotal Game 4 matchup in the ALCS.
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Saturday’s Best +EV MLB Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Shawn Armstrong Under 0.5 Strikeouts (+145 at Fliff)
- Fair Value: -133
- Market EV: +40%
Shawn Armstrong will get the start tonight. Ultimately, it’s likely he’ll pitch just one inning and come out of the game by the second inning. He’s struck out 24% of his last 25 batters faced, but only added 22.7% of strikeouts this season.
Additionally, he’s set to face a Rays lineup that has struck out nearly 24% of the time. That said, Yandy Diaz bats first and has struck out only 16.7% of the time. Jonathan Aranda has hit a .212 ISO, and Junior Caminero would be third in the lineup.
At +145, for one inning, you can’t go wrong with Armstrong Under 0.5 Strikeouts. That’s a steal. Grab it while you can.
Nick Martinez Over 2.5 Strikeouts (+150 at Prophet X)
- Fair Value: +132
- Market EV: +8%
Unlike Armstrong, Nick Martinez will be the Rays’ legitimate starter. He’ll be expected to go deeper. That said, he’s only added 19.6% of strikeouts over the last month and will face a Guardians team that has struck out only 17.7% of the time against righties in the last 30 days.
Still, the Guardians have multiple players who have struck out at least 22.6% of the time. Martinez’s strikeout rate has increased over the last month from 15.2% in the season to 19.6% over the last month.
Asking for three strikeouts from Martinez is realistic. At +150, I’ll take my chances knowing the fair value is stuck at +132. This is an 8% play!
Taylor Walls Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+125 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +108
- Market EV: +8%
Over the last month, Taylor Walls has hit a .100 ISO and a wOBA of .177 with 31.8% of strikeouts. He’ll likely bat ninth for the Rays tonight. He’s also hit 46.2% of ground balls, only 15.4% of line drives, and a 30.8% hard-contact rate.
Against righties, he’s got a .154 BABIP. Over the last month, he’s added just a 3.7% barrel percentage against both sides of the plate. That includes only 22.2% of fly balls against his last 42 batters.
I’ll take Walls to go Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs in tonight’s game. He might not even get more than three plate appearances.
