With a full 15-game slate on the MLB schedule today, there’s plenty of value on the betting board. Thanks to the Market-based EV page, I was able to find incredible value with just a few clicks on the page. Take a look for yourself and consider these three bets below.
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Saturday’s Best +EV MLB Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Freddie Freeman Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+178 at Kalshi)
- Fair Value: +138
- Market EV: +17%
Over the last month, Freddie Freeman has hit a .391 wOBA against righties. While there are many hitters in the MLB outperforming that number, Freeman has the highest wOBA in the Dodgers’ projected lineup against righties in the last month.
Additionally, Freeman has struck out below 20% of the time against righties in the last 30 days and has hit 43.9% of line drives with 48.8% of hard contact. He’s set to face a tough matchup in Brandon Pfaadt, but if anyone is going to have success, it’d be Freeman.
Ultimately, Freeman to add at least three hits + runs + RBI is +178 at Kalshi, but +138 is the fair market price. That’s an insane 17% positive expected value. Go get this bet while you can.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+150 at NoVig)
- Fair Value: +122
- Market EV: +12%
We’ll stay in the Dodgers-Diamondbacks game. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will get the start for the Dodgers. He’s a right-handed pitcher who has actually allowed a .268 ISO and a wOBA of .379 to his last 46 righties.
The Diamondbacks should have at least four righties in the lineup, too. Plus, Yamamoto has added just 18.9% strikeouts over the last month so balls will be put in play.
That said, Yamamoto has a line of Over 5.5 hits at +150 via NoVig. Yet, the fair value is set at +122. This is another outstanding positive expected value play to consider for tonight’s MLB slate.
Sandy Alcantara Over 20.5 Outs Recorded (+125 at NoVig)
- Fair Value: +106
- Market EV: +9%
There was talk about Sandy Alcantara getting traded at the deadline by the Marlins. But that never happened. He’s stuck in a Miami uniform for the rest of the season.
It’s a good thing for Miami fans. He’s held his last 133 batters to a .154 ISO and a wOBA of .264. He’s also been this consistent throughout the season.
Meanwhile, he’s facing an Angels lineup that has combined to hit a .114 ISO over the last month against righties. It’s also got six batters with a wOBA of .303 or below during that stretch. This is a game where Alcantara can pitch deep.
At NoVig, you can land his Over 20.5 outs at +125 when the fair value for this bet is currently +106 when looking at the rest of the market. This is a steal!
