There are plenty of opportunities to cash in early on Major League Baseball player props today, as five of the 11 games are played in the afternoon window. We get involved with one early play, as Max Scherzer makes his Texas Rangers debut. In the evening slate, we back the starting pitcher of MLB’s hottest team, and project a solid day for one of the NL’s best players.
Thursday’s Best MLB Player Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Max Scherzer Under earned runs allowed vs. White Sox (OFF)
Scherzer's ERA is on track to be over 4.00 for the first time since 2011, but his 3.66 xERA suggests positive regression is coming. Scherzer had two phenomenal home starts to finish his time with the New York Mets, allowing just one earned run over 14 innings while striking out 13 against the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers.
Now Scherzer faces a White Sox lineup that dealt one of its best power hitters in Jake Burger and one that ranks 27th in batting average, 23rd in BABIP, and has the AL's fourth-worst strikeout percentage (25.9%) in road games against right-handed pitchers since June 1. This is a three-star play, as Scherzer's 2.43 ERA against the White Sox is his second-lowest against any opponent he has faced 12+ times in his career (he has faced 19 teams that many times), and we expect his Rangers tenure to begin successfully.
Jameson Taillon to record a win vs. Reds (+100)
A few weeks ago, it would have been blasphemous to think the Chicago Cubs would add arguably the most talented hitter at the trade deadline, but they did just that with the addition of Jeimer Candelario. Candelario provides much-needed versatility at first and third base for the Cubs, two positions where they entered yesterday 29th and 18th in bWAR, respectively.
The Cubs used a hot stretch to prove to their front office they were worthy of "going for it," as their 11 wins since July 18 are the most in MLB. Righty Jameson Taillon is also experiencing a tremendous mid-season turnaround, leading the team to four consecutive wins in his last four starts (with a combined +26 run differential) after the team went 2-12 in his first 14 starts.
Bettors who wagered on Chicago's moneyline for the last 45 games would be +10 units with an 18% ROI, and we expect it to keep cashing for its backers today.
Freddie Freeman Over hits/runs/RBIs vs. Athletics (-190)
Oakland Athletics southpaw JP Sears has odd reverse splits, allowing a .300 OBA to left-handed hitters and a .206 OBA to righties. Freddie Freeman has no issues facing southpaws as a left-handed batter, leading the Los Angeles Dodgers with a .325 batting average in that split. His 1.052 OPS is second to Mookie Betts against lefties, but Freeman has 83 total bases against southpaws, while no other Dodger has more than 65.
This is a confident four-star play, as Freeman entered yesterday red-hot in his last 20 at-bats, slashing .450/.476/.500. He has just one extra-base hit (a double) in that span. Still, the power numbers will come for a player who makes contact as consistently as Freeman does, and he is as likely as any player to cash this Over with a multi-hit day if needed.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.