Last week's results were equivalent to the proverbial kissing of your sister. I went 1-1, with one prop voided because Joshua Baez did not start. Wednesday's slate has some interesting matchups that I am looking to exploit. Here are my three favorite MLB player props for Wednesday, August 26th.
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Wednesday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets
Taylor Walls Under 0.5 Hits (+100 at theScore Bet) & Under 0.5 Total Bases (Fanatics Sportsbook)
For my first MLB player prop bets for Wednesday, I am betting against Taylor Walls of the Tampa Bay Rays to register any hits or total bases against Troy Melton and the Detroit Tigers.
Melton has been among the best pitchers in baseball at limiting base hits this season. Among 130 pitchers with at least 90 innings pitched, Melton has allowed the fifth-lowest batting average and second-lowest batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Left-handed hitters have a minuscule .203 BABIP versus Melton this season.
Melton's biggest issue when facing lefties is the home run ball. That should not factor into the equation with Walls. He has two homers in 378 plate appearances this season. Both came in one game in the bandbox known as Sutter Health Park in Sacramento.
Walls enters Wednesday's matchup with a .187 expected batting average this season. That is the fourth-lowest mark among 244 qualified hitters.
The shortstop is hitting .201 on the road this season. That includes a recent road trip where he went 7-for-22 in Colorado and Sacramento. If you remove those two series, Walls is hitting .183 away from Tropicana Field. He has yet to record a base hit in the first five games of Tampa's current road trip.
Even though he is only likely to face Melton twice, I am fine fading Walls in this matchup. Detroit's bullpen is in the middle of the pack in most metrics, but I don't think it will matter much against a hitter as limited as Walls.
Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110 at theScore Bet)
Next, I am taking Gabriel Moreno of the Arizona Diamondbacks to record at least two total bases against Matthew Boyd and the Chicago Cubs.
Moreno has had an excellent season for Arizona. He has the highest wRC+ among all qualified catchers with a 132 mark. Moreno is not the most prolific power hitter, but some indicators suggest Wednesday’s matchup is one he can take advantage of.
Lefty Boyd is on the hill for Chicago on Wednesday afternoon. Boyd has had a rough go of it lately. He has allowed five or more runs in three of his four August starts. Boyd has given up eight home runs in those starts, all to right-handed hitters. Righties have given Boyd a fair amount of trouble this season.
Overall, they have posted a .451 slugging rate and .196 ISO against the left-hander. Moreno's power stroke has been more prevalent when facing southpaws in Chase Field.
The Diamondbacks catcher has a .523 slugging rate and .205 ISO at home against left-handers this season. He has a 62.8% hard-hit rate and .643 expected slugging rate in that split. Moreno is also 3-for-4 lifetime against Boyd with a double and a home run.
Moreno has recorded at least two total bases in five of his last seven games in which Arizona faced a left-handed starting pitcher. He should get three cracks at Boyd, who has a long leash despite his recent struggles. Boyd has faced at least 25 batters in six straight starts. I expect Moreno to get the best of Boyd and register at least two total bases in this matchup.
Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 Total Bases (+170 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Gabriel Moreno is not the only catcher I am betting on doing damage at the plate on Wednesday. I am also taking Alejandro Kirk of the Toronto Blue Jays to go over on his total bases prop.
Kirk entered Tuesday's action with a career-high 12-game hitting streak. Unfortunately, that came to an end, primarily because Kirk entered the game as a pinch-hitter. But his streak when in the starting lineup remains intact, and I believe his recent success will continue against the Kansas City Royals and starter Randy Dobnak.
This is an extreme pitch-to-contact matchup on both sides. Dobnak has struck out just 14.8% of hitters this season, while Kirk has a low 11.4% strikeout rate. While Dobnak keeps the ball in the yard, he gives up a fair amount of base hits. Opponents have a .254 batting average against the veteran right-hander.
In addition to his recent hitting surge, Kirk also performs much better at home. He is slugging .460 at home, including a .482 slugging rate against right-handed pitching in Toronto. Kansas City's bullpen is one to target in case Dobnak holds Kirk at bay. Royals relievers have the highest expected ERA and have allowed the highest home run rate among all Major League bullpens.
Kirk's hits + runs + RBIs prop line is reasonably priced at -118 on DraftKings Sportsbook, and I have no issue going that route. However, we are getting so much extra bang for our buck with his total bases prop that I think the juice is worth the squeeze in this instance.
