We’ve got a full slate of MLB games today! All four games will be played, with three games giving us a possible elimination.
The Phillies need one more win against the Braves to advance to the NLCS. Meanwhile, the Astros are up 2-0 and could head to the ALCS with a win over the Mariners.
Next, the Padres could upset the Dodgers with another win and move on to the NLCS. The Yankees and Guardians will be the only game that won’t be an elimination game.
- MLB Playoffs Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday
- Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight's slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Top 3 MLB Divisional Series Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (10/15)
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
It would be quite the story if the Phillies could pull off the series upset at home to move on to the NLCS. Former manager Joe Girardi was fired in the middle of the season because the Phillies weren’t playing good baseball. Now they’re a game away from being a top-four team.
Both teams will send out their number four starter in Game 4. Charlie Morton will get the start for the Braves. He’s thrown a 4.38 xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s also struck out 26.1% of batters but has walked 10.1% of batters. You get the best of both worlds with Morton.
He’s inducing under 40% of grounders and giving up 25.6% of line drives when balls are put into play. The right-hander has also been dreadful against lefties, allowing a .446 wOBA and ISO of .394. Lefties like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper will have real power against Morton, Brandon Marsh, and Bryson Stott, who has consistently hit line drives against righties over the last 30 days.
On the other hand, Noah Syndergaard will get the start for the Phillies. He’s got a 5.09 xFIP over the last 30 days with low strikeouts. But he’s also induced 52.4% of ground balls in the previous month and has allowed just 7.1% of line drives. However, Syndergaard has allowed a .179 ISO to righties. He’ll have to take on Ronald Acuna, Dansby Swanson, and Marcell Ozuna, who has hit high power from the right side against righties over the last 30 days.
With two below-average starters on the mound, I’m taking the Over.
Bet: Over 8.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians scored a couple of runs in extra innings to pull past the Yankees in Game 2. The Guardians have almost scored the same amount of runs in extra innings as in the first nine innings in the postseason.
It’s a hard offense to trust. However, against righties, Cleveland still has a wOBA of .307. But they’ll take on Luis Severino, who has a 3.57 xFIP over the last 30 days. Severino has struck out over 30% of batters in the previous 30 days and has induced a high rate of ground balls while limiting line drives.
Severino’s sample size is at 56 batters over the last month. It’s enough to show how good he’s been coming into the postseason.
Meanwhile, Triston McKenzie will get the start for the Guardians. He’s been just as good, throwing a 2.78 xFIP over the last 30 days. Like Severino, McKenzie has struck out over 30% of batters, and he’s walked just 2.5%. The righty also induces a high amount of grounders and limits line drives.
Offensively, the Yankees have hit just as poorly as the Guardians. I’ve got the Under in tonight’s game in Cleveland.
Bet: Under 6.5 (+100 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
As long as Joe Musgrove’s spin rate is as high as last week, the Padres should be in good shape.
Musgrove has a 3.74 xFIP over the last 30 days and has struck out 28.6% of batters. He’s limited line drives to 17% but won’t always get a ton of grounders.
Musgrove has limited extra-base hits well over the last 30 days and will take on a Los Angeles lineup that has struggled to score runs lately. This is the perfect opportunity for the Padres to earn an NLCS bid.
Meanwhile, Tyler Anderson will get the call for the Dodgers. He’s a lefty with a 4.05 xFIP. His strikeouts are high, and his walks are low. Like Musgrove, he’s not a high-ground ball pitcher but has limited hard contact over the last 30 days.
The Padres have hit a .247 ISO and wOBA of .364 against lefties over the last 30 days. Like Musgrove, Anderson hasn’t allowed many extra-base hits, but the Padres have more potential to make those extra-base hits a reality tonight.
Back the Padres to earn an NLCS bid.
Bet: Padres (+105 at DraftKings )
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