I really do hate seeing the overall record drop below .500. Everything looked like it should've lined up for success yesterday, but, as happens in gambling, we were let down by a couple of unfortunate events. Kevin Gausman fell one strikeout shy of his prop as the Blue Jays were no-hit by the Tigers themselves, and James Paxton did us dirty with one extra hit than we could've afforded. Hopefully, Jose Ramirez's successful over-prop was able to salvage some cards across the board. Sunday presents the last opportunity for MLB PrizePicks props prior to the 2023 All-Star break. Let's hope we can end the first half with a bang.
Overall record: 17-18-2
Sunday’s Best PrizePicks Player Predictions
Here are our best PrizePicks plays for today.
Shane Bieber Under 1.5 Walks Allowed
As the Royals were the sole team to do us well on Saturday, I'd like to go right back to targeting them this afternoon. Shane Bieber has not been good by any means in 2023, but he is historically not a wild pitcher when he toes the mound. The 28-year-old is coming off a rare five-walk performance, which is simply not the norm for him. Prior to that lone July start, Bieber had not handed out more than two free passes across any of his five starts in June, and he has dished out just 33 total walks in 2023 across 18 total starts (1.83/game).
I really do hate seeing the overall record drop below .500. Everything looked like it should've lined up for success yesterday, but, as happens in gambling, we were let down by a couple of unfortunate events. Kevin Gausman fell one strikeout shy of his prop as the Blue Jays were no-hit by the Tigers themselves, and James Paxton did us dirty with one extra hit than we could've afforded. Hopefully, Jose Ramirez's successful over-prop was able to salvage some cards across the board. Sunday presents the last opportunity for MLB PrizePicks props prior to the 2023 All-Star break. Let's hope we can end the first half with a bang.
Overall record: 17-18-2
Sunday’s Best PrizePicks Player Predictions
Here are our best PrizePicks plays for today.
Shane Bieber Under 1.5 Walks Allowed
As the Royals were the sole team to do us well on Saturday, I'd like to go right back to targeting them this afternoon. Shane Bieber has not been good by any means in 2023, but he is historically not a wild pitcher when he toes the mound. The 28-year-old is coming off a rare five-walk performance, which is simply not the norm for him. Prior to that lone July start, Bieber had not handed out more than two free passes across any of his five starts in June, and he has dished out just 33 total walks in 2023 across 18 total starts (1.83/game).
On the Kansas City side, the Royals rank 28th in the MLB in walk rate at a 7.2-percent clip, and they have only walked as a team 237 times to this point. Meanwhile, they are the sixth-highest team in batting strikeouts and rank dead last in the MLB in OBP (.294). Shane Bieber pitched a two-hitter against this very team back on June 29th, and he only walked one batter across the effort. Similar numbers should be expected today as they will do battle once more.
Aaron Nola Over 34.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score
The Phillies will enter the all-star break looking to make up ground on the surprising second-place Marlins, and they will be looking to win the series against Miami behind the back of Aaron Nola on Sunday. Nola is coming off one of his best performances of the season against the Rays last week, in which he hurled 7 1/3 innings of one-run ball while striking out 12 in a win. Nola has also thrown north of 100 pitches in six of his last seven starts, lasting less than six innings on only one of those occasions.
Miami has been sneakily good through the first half of the campaign, but this pick is more pro-Nola than it is anti-Miami. That said, the Marlins' lineup still lacks insane firepower, and that is noted by their deflated team barrel percentage, which sits at a meager 6.5, and just above the Oakland Athletics.
On the flip side, Nola still sits in the top half of the MLB in HardHit%, xBA, and chase rate, categories in which Miami is good, not great. I just have the feeling that Nola is going to try to close out the first half with a win and a dominant performance on Sunday. If he is able even to put together a quality start and decent performance, he should be able to sail by his listed prop number.
Ryan O'Hearn Under 1.5 Total Bases
Most people probably forgot who Ryan O'Hearn was prior to a hot stretch that has seen him get bumped up in the Orioles' starting lineup for some time now. The 29-year-old has been slashing .348/.419/.538 in the month of July, impressive numbers for a career-long utility guy and journeyman.
Despite the recent success, O'Hearn has just three extra-base hits this month and just two multi-hit games over his past 16. The ask for one of those two things to occur on Sunday feels lower than usual, especially given the matchup.
Joe Ryan will be on the hill for the Twins on Sunday, and he is no slouch. The third-year pitcher holds an 8-5 record with a 3.42 ERA as we head into the break, and he holds a stellar 114:16 K:BB ratio as well. He figures to last long on Sunday as he has notched at least six innings pitched in 14 of his 17 2023 starts. He has never faced O'Hearn previously, which should work in his favor as well.
Check out our other best bets for Sunday:
