Yesterday’s picks didn’t go quite as planned, but as Bill Belichick famously said, “We’re onto Cincinnati.” As usual, Thursday’s slate is limited, but we’re not short of analysis here. Let’s get back on the winning track today.
Thursday's Best MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions
PrizePicks record: 22-14-2
The Tigers strikeout rate over the last two weeks is lower than usual, but that’s more of a result of the righties they’ve faced. We just saw Zack Greinke, who hardly ever strikes out anyone, manage to find five punch outs against them yesterday in five innings though. The day before, some guy named Mike Mayers struck out eight Detroit batters. So, I think it’s safe to say you can ignore them being 29th in K% over the last 14 days. Over the duration of the season, they have the 10th highest K% (23.5%) and 3rd worst wRC+ (83) against right-handed pitching.
Yesterday’s picks didn’t go quite as planned, but as Bill Belichick famously said, “We’re onto Cincinnati.” As usual, Thursday’s slate is limited, but we’re not short of analysis here. Let’s get back on the winning track today.
Thursday's Best MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions
PrizePicks record: 22-14-2
The Tigers strikeout rate over the last two weeks is lower than usual, but that’s more of a result of the righties they’ve faced. We just saw Zack Greinke, who hardly ever strikes out anyone, manage to find five punch outs against them yesterday in five innings though. The day before, some guy named Mike Mayers struck out eight Detroit batters. So, I think it’s safe to say you can ignore them being 29th in K% over the last 14 days. Over the duration of the season, they have the 10th highest K% (23.5%) and 3rd worst wRC+ (83) against right-handed pitching.
Lucas Giolito has dominated this roster for a while now. Detroit has a collective 182 PAs vs. him and an unimpressive 28% K% to go along with it. Last year he cleared this in four of five starts against them. Gio has cleared this in seven of his 10 starts this year, thanks largely in part to that changeup of his that has the 6th highest SwStr% out of all changeups. The Tigers are 25th in wCH rating (-3.6) and 29th in wFB (-25.3). Look for Lucas to play both pitches off each other as he usually does en route to at least 6 Ks today.
Logan Gilbert Over 39.5 Fantasy Score
It’s a steep line to clear, but Logan Gilbert is up for the challenge in this fantastic matchup. Sitting at 10-41, The Oakland A’s have been an absolute joke this year with the worst record in MLB. Their recent performance at the dish is right on par with that record. Over the last two weeks, they have the worst wRC+ (40!) and highest K% (29.7%) against right-handed pitching. Six of the eight righties to face them over this span have gone over this mark. The two that missed only failed to do so because they couldn’t get through six innings pitched.
Gilbert should be able to get to a quality start and rack up plenty of strikeouts along the way too. He owns a 2.94 xFIP and ranks in the top 88% in chase rate, 87% in K%, 87% in BB%, and 80% in xERA/xwOBA. Oakland’s roster has just a .291 xwOBA in 78 PAs against him as well, so look for Gilbert to join the rest of the recent righty 40-point crew.
Alek Manoah Under 17 Outs
The Blue Jays’ beefy young starter is not who we thought he was coming into the year. It doesn’t matter what metric you look at, it’s significantly down compared to the last two years for Manoah. He has a 5.88 xFIP, ranks in the bottom 7% in xERA/xwOBA, 10% in BB%, 15% in K%, and has failed to eclipse this line in eight of his 10 starts.
Drawing a date with the Rays won’t help him off the struggle bus either. They have the best wRC+ (133) against righties this year and obliterated him earlier this year. Manoah pitched just four and two-thirds while allowing seven earned runs, nine hits, and four walks. Pitching at the Trop is never easy, and I’m expecting more of the same from Manoah today.
Also make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:
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Tyler Gentile is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tyler, follow him @808Paperboi.
