Another solid 2-1 day took place on yesterday’s big slate. If the Diamondbacks didn’t send Gallen back out there in the 7th inning with 90 pitches, we would’ve been looking at another 3-0 sweep. It’s slim pickings today with only 5 games on today’s slate, but I’ll still find three options for this limited Thursday.
Thursday's Best MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions
This season: 53-29-3
Dylan Cease Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Nobody strikes out less than the Guardians against right-handed pitching, and they have rarely struck out when they have faced Cease in the past. Their roster has a minuscule 15.4% K% in 117 plate appearances against him. Dating back to last season, Cease has six starts against Cleveland and has failed to go over this line in five of the six, averaging just 4.2 K’s per outing. 18 of the last 25 right-handed starters to face them have failed to strike out more than 5 batters. Taking an under on a Cease K-prop is rarely ever a fun time. In this kind of a matchup, though, it is doable.
Another solid 2-1 day took place on yesterday’s big slate. If the Diamondbacks didn’t send Gallen back out there in the 7th inning with 90 pitches, we would’ve been looking at another 3-0 sweep. It’s slim pickings today with only 5 games on today’s slate, but I’ll still find three options for this limited Thursday.
Thursday's Best MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions
This season: 53-29-3
Dylan Cease Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Nobody strikes out less than the Guardians against right-handed pitching, and they have rarely struck out when they have faced Cease in the past. Their roster has a minuscule 15.4% K% in 117 plate appearances against him. Dating back to last season, Cease has six starts against Cleveland and has failed to go over this line in five of the six, averaging just 4.2 K’s per outing. 18 of the last 25 right-handed starters to face them have failed to strike out more than 5 batters. Taking an under on a Cease K-prop is rarely ever a fun time. In this kind of a matchup, though, it is doable.
It’s definitely a bit counterintuitive fading one starter against a low K% team and then taking the over on another in a similar matchup, but that’s what I’m about to propose here. Yes, the Nationals have the 2nd lowest K% (18.8%) when facing righties on the year, but this line is simply too low for Senga-san. He has recorded 6+ strikeouts in 14 of his 18 starts this season, averaging 6.9 per appearance. The 30-year-old Japanese rookie ranks in the top 89% in K% and 79% in whiff% for a reason, and most of it is due to his filthy Ghost-Fork. Senga struck out 7 National batters back in late April and should be able to get to at least 6 tonight as long as the weather cooperates.
Justin Steele Over 30.5 Fantasy Score
Steele faced the Cardinals just five days ago and shut them down with relative ease. He allowed just 2 earned runs across 6.1 innings while striking out 9 batters en route to a phenomenal 50-point PrizePicks fantasy score. There's a narrative out there that starters struggle to face the same team on a consecutive start, but that really doesn't hold all that much weight to it.
Steele has held this St. Louis roster in check in just about every outing he has had against them. They have a .291 xwOBA and 25% K% in 92 plate appearances against him. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity, 81st percentile in xERA/xwOBA, 92nd percentile in BB%, and 85th percentile in chase rate. Excluding 2 starts surrounding an injury, Steele has gone over this mark in 10 of 16 starts averaging a little over 35 fantasy points per outing. Given his history against the Red Birds, I think he gets over this mark again.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:
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Tyler Gentile is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tyler, follow him @808Paperboi.
