MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions: Thursday (7/6)

Another ho-hum 2-1 day in the pitcher prop department took place yesterday bringing the overall record to 44-26-3 over at PrizePicks. Once again the focus will be on pitcher props for this limited Thursday slate of games. Here are the best PrizePicks plays for Thursday, July, 6th.

Thursday's Best MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions

This season: 44-26-3

Julio Urias Under 16.5 Pitching Outs

I wrote this up last night on Twitter, and I still like the fade of Urias at 16.5 outs. He shouldn’t make it past 5 innings. Here’s a link to the analysis.

Thursday's Best MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions

This season: 44-26-3

Julio Urias Under 16.5 Pitching Outs

I wrote this up last night on Twitter, and I still like the fade of Urias at 16.5 outs. He shouldn’t make it past 5 innings. Here’s a link to the analysis.

Eury Perez Over 29.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score

Prior to his blowup last start against the Braves, the Marlins’ standout prospect had been on a tear over his last 6 starts: 33 innings, 38 strikeouts, and just 1 earned run allowed. That all correlated to 6 consecutive 30+ point fantasy outputs. I’m willing to give Eury a pass for his outing against Atlanta, who is red-hot against right-handed pitching with a 153 wRC+ over the last month.

Today Perez faces a Cardinals squad that has been seeing the ball as of late, but not to the same level as Atlanta, with a 117 wRC+ across the last 30 days. They have never faced the phenom, and he ranks in the top 99% in fastball spin rate, 95% in fastball velocity, 87% in whiff%, 79% in K%, and 69% in xERA/xwOBA. He should get by relatively unscathed en route to a quality start with around 6 strikeouts tonight.

Luis Severino Under 17 Outs

Severino simply ain’t it right now. He is routinely getting smacked around and ranks in the bottom 3% in xERA/xwOBA with a 26% CSW% which is among the league’s worst rates. He has failed to go 6 innings in 6 of his 8 starts this year and is coming off a horrendous outing against the Cardinals, where he allowed 9 hits, 7 earned runs, and 3 walks across just 4 innings pitched. Baltimore hasn’t been particularly imposing lately at the dish, but Severino’s struggles outweigh everything right now. If you’re not as sold on the outs, over 1.5 walks for Sevy seems like a solid alternative too. He has allowed 2+ walks in 6/8 outings this year as well.

Check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Tyler Gentile is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tyler, follow him @808Paperboi.