After the 162-game slog, there’s nothing better than playoff baseball. It is a signficantly different game, however, and that changes the way to best wager on props. As soon as anything goes awry, bullpens are warming, so be careful on the over spots for starting pitchers.
Here are the best PrizePicks plays worth considering for today, Wednesday, Oct. 4.
Wednesday’s Best MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions
This season: 74-60-9
After the 162-game slog, there’s nothing better than playoff baseball. It is a signficantly different game, however, and that changes the way to best wager on props. As soon as anything goes awry, bullpens are warming, so be careful on the over spots for starting pitchers.
Here are the best PrizePicks plays worth considering for today, Wednesday, Oct. 4.
Wednesday’s Best MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions
This season: 74-60-9
The Marlins are sending out another lefty to take on the Phillies on Wednesday. They tagged Jesus Luzardo for eight hits and three runs in just four innings yesterday. It wouldn't be all that shocking to see a similar stat line for Braxton Garrett today.
Philadelphia has hit him hard in the past, as their roster owns a .444 xwOBA and a 17.8% K% in 73 combined plate appearances. In a win-or-go-home scenario, the leash will undoubtedly be extremely short for Garrett, and his outs prop is listed at 13.5. He typically isn't one to have a large pitch count as it is, and on the season averaged just 81 pitches per start. He will probably get two turns through the order before the bullpen takes over. Garrett failed to exceed this number in six of his final nine starts.
Five innings out of Freddy Peralta pitching at home. That’s all we’re asking for here. Yes, this is also a must-win situation, so the leash will be short for Peralta, but he should be able to deliver. Arizona has been miserable against righties over the final month of the season. They had an 80 wRC+ (fifth worst) against right-handed pitching.
Peralta has gone at least five innings in 28 of his 30 starts on the season. Obviously, October baseball is a different breed of the game, but Freddy is among the elite starters in the game and should be able to work five innings at home. Among all starters, he ranked in the 94th percentile in xFIP, 85th in xERA, 96th in K% and 93rd in CSW% on the season. Also, only five Diamondback hitters have faced him before. Christian Walker, Pavan Smith, Ketel Marte, Tommy Pham and Evan Longoria have combined to go 2-22 with three walks and seven strikeouts against him.
I’m seeing this listed at -150 over at DraftKings Sportsbook, so there is definitely some value to be had at PrizePicks. Zac Gallen has had his way with the Milwaukee roster in the past. They own a pathetic .179 batting average, .270 xwOBA and 26.8% K% in 71 plate appearances against him. Even if they do hit Gallen, that bodes well for this play. The urgency to get him out of the game will be there early on if he runs into trouble.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
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Tyler Gentile is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tyler, follow him @808Paperboi.
