We have 14 games on the docket this Wednesday, with a blend of afternoon and night baseball. The marquee matchup of the day comes between two NL East rivals, as the Phillies take on the Mets at Citi Field. That game will be broadcast on MLB Network. Let’s keep the winning ways going this Wednesday with some more player props via PrizePicks.
Wednesday's Best MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions
PrizePicks record: 24-15-2
What a breakout season for the Pirates’ 27-year-old righty it has been. His progression started to shine through towards the back half of last season, but Keller has taken it to another level through his first 11 starts in 2023. He’s coming off a bit of a clunker against Seattle, but still has a 3.06 xFIP, ranks in the top 81% in xERA/xwOBA, 93% in hard hit%, 87% in K%, and 81% in BB%. He also has a 30.9% CSW% which is 22nd best among all pitchers.
We have 14 games on the docket this Wednesday, with a blend of afternoon and night baseball. The marquee matchup of the day comes between two NL East rivals, as the Phillies take on the Mets at Citi Field. That game will be broadcast on MLB Network. Let’s keep the winning ways going this Wednesday with some more player props via PrizePicks.
Wednesday's Best MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions
PrizePicks record: 24-15-2
What a breakout season for the Pirates’ 27-year-old righty it has been. His progression started to shine through towards the back half of last season, but Keller has taken it to another level through his first 11 starts in 2023. He’s coming off a bit of a clunker against Seattle, but still has a 3.06 xFIP, ranks in the top 81% in xERA/xwOBA, 93% in hard hit%, 87% in K%, and 81% in BB%. He also has a 30.9% CSW% which is 22nd best among all pitchers.
Today he’ll be in the pitching-friendly confines of Oracle Park, and the Giants have been one of the more strikeout-prone teams against right-handed pitching this season. They have the third highest K% (25.3%) against righties, and that rate has steadily remained over the last 14 and 30 days. With that being said, Keller didn’t really need the matchup help considering he has been a strikeout machine all season. He has racked up eight or more punchouts in six consecutive starts and has gone over this line in nine of 11 overall. I see no reason why his K ways will stop today, so take the over here.
Zach Eflin Over 16.5 Outs
The Cubs might see the most Pit/PA (4.10), but Eflin throws the 2nd fewest (3.50) out of 117 starters. Six innings pitched is the going rate for any starter, so I’m siding with the Rays’ biggest free-agent contract (three years, 40 million) of all time, Zach Eflin. With his pitch count built up a bit more, he has cleared this in five straight starts and has gone seven innings in three of those five.
All of the advanced metrics support why he has been able to get through the order quickly. He ranks in the top 82% in xERA/xwOBA, 97% in BB%, 92% in chase rate, has a 31.8% CSW% (14th best), and owns a 3.29 xFIP. Chicago’s offensive production has dropped off considerably as of late, and they are 24th in wRC+ (88) over the last month against righties. The weather should also aid this prop as there are 11 MPH winds to be coming in from right field at Wrigley. Eflin should be able to find a quality start against this offense.
Shane Bieber Under 4.5 Strikeouts
This isn’t the Bieber we used to know. Back in his heyday of 2019-2o21, the Biebs routinely made batters look silly and had plenty of punchouts along the way. Nowadays, he rarely finds many. This season he is under this line in nine of his 11 starts and he ranks in the bottom 26% in xERA/xwOBA, 16% in K%, and 31% in whiff%. The only times he did manage to clear this was against the Tigers and Athletics.
Baltimore (35-20) has surprised a lot of people this year and has been one of the more strikeout-averse squads against righties. They are 22nd in K% (22%) and t12th in wRC+ (102) when facing RHP. 17 of the last 25 right-handed starters to face them have failed to record at least five strikeouts. Everything Bieber has shown us points to him joining the majority of those starters, so look for him to go under this mark once again.
Also make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
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Tyler Gentile is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tyler, follow him @808Paperboi.
