This Friday's MLB slate features some interesting matchups which are prime for MLB same game parlays. Two of the league's potential young aces make their season debuts in Tampa Bay and Seattle, respectively. With their workloads being unknown, I could not bring myself to bet on them this week. But there are still lots of matchups to take advantage of for our MLB Same Game Parlay bets.
Below are three of my favorite MLB same game parlays for Friday, May 10. Remember that FanDuel Sportsbook offers all customers a 30% boost on any qualifying SGP (+400 or above).
Friday's Best MLB Same Game Parlays
Here are our top MLB Same Game Parlay picks for Friday's games.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Baltimore Orioles
- Leg 1: Cole Irvin Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115)
- Leg 2: Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
- Leg 3: Brandon Pfaadt Under 1.5 Walks (-130)
The Baltimore Orioles head home after a 4-1 road trip to face the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have won four straight. Cole Irvin is on the bump for Baltimore and he is one of the hottest pitchers in the league. Not only has Irvin won his last three starts, but he has not allowed a single run in any of those outings. Yet, as well as Irvin has pitched, he is simply not a strikeout pitcher.
Irvin has only struck out 16.1 percent of all batters he has faced this season. Interestingly enough, that number has decreased to 15.5 percent during his three-game scoreless streak. Arizona has the second-lowest strikeout rate in MLB when facing left-handed pitching. They also have the league's highest batting average and second-highest slugging percentage. A big reason for that is Ketel Marte.
Marte is hitting .365 and slugging .731 versus lefties so far in 2024. That dominance is hardly new for Marte. For his career, he hits .306 and slugs .524 when batting from the right side. I believe Marte will continue to pound lefties and record at least two total bases on Friday.
For the final leg of my SGP, I like Arizona pitcher Brandon Pfaadt to keep the ball in the strike zone and allow fewer than 1.5 walks. He has done so in five of seven starts this year, surrendering just six total walks in 41 innings on the season.
Baltimore is a good hitting team, but they are hardly a patient bunch, especially under these conditions. When they face a right-handed pitcher at home, the Orioles are only walking at a 4.7-percent rate. The league average is 9.2 percent. I expect Pfaadt to continue to pound the strike zone and limit the free passes in this matchup.
Parlay Odds: +435 at DraftKings
Washington Nationals at Boston Red Sox
- Leg 1: Boston Five Inning Result (-170)
- Leg 2: Boston Money Line (-210)
- Leg 3: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
- Leg 4: Patrick Corbin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-102)
Boston hosts the Washington Nationals on Friday night. Tanner Houck brings his 1.99 ERA to face Patrick Corbin and his 6.45 mark. The advanced metrics suggest the difference may not be quite that far apart, but this appears to be a game with a decided pitching matchup in favor of the home team.
Because of that, I am double-dipping with the first two legs of this SGP. I am taking the Red Sox to have the lead after the fifth inning, as well as to win the game outright. Most sportsbooks do not offer this option, so this helps us get over the +400 threshold on FanDuel, which entitles us to a 30 percent boost.
Despite the left-on-left matchup between Rafael Devers and Corbin, I like Devers to have a big day at the plate. He profiles very well against Corbin's pitch mix. Corbin should attack Devers with a combination of a sinker, slider, and four-seam fastball. Devers historically destroys these offerings, especially four-seamers and sliders.
Since 2021, Devers has posted a +28 Run-Value on fastballs, a +16 Run-Value on sliders, and a +9 Run-Value on sinkers. He has an xSLG of .668 or better versus sliders in three of those four seasons, and an xSLG of .522 or better in all four years against fastballs.
Corbin has only struck out five or more hitters in two of seven starts thus far in 2024. The Red Sox do strike out more than any other team in baseball versus left-handers. I just do not know if Corbin has enough left in the tank to take advantage of it.
The veteran has struck out just 14.4 percent of hitters this year, including 13.4 percent on the road. I would probably lay off this number if it was 3.5, but 4.5 feels too high. I am taking the Under on Corbin's strikeout total as the final leg of this Same Game Parlay.
Parlay Odds: +437 at FanDuel (+568 after 30% boost)
Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies
- Leg 1: Texas -1.5 Run Line (-120)
- Leg 2: Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Total Bases (-142)
- Leg 3: Nathaniel Lowe Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
The Texas Rangers finish up their 10-game road trip with a three-game set in Colorado. Texas is heating up offensively on this trip. They have scored 54 runs in the seven games and have won five of seven. I expect them to continue slugging against Austin Gomber and the Rockies.
Former Rockie Jon Gray takes the mound for Texas, and he has been excellent this season. Gray enters play on Friday with a 2.50 ERA and a 2.53 FIP. Colorado ranks dead last among all 30 MLB teams this year in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers at home. This should be a game the Rangers win handily.
I was a bit surprised to see the pricing so soft on total base props for the Rangers' hitters in this game. To be fair, Austin Gomber has been decent this season. However, I do not see him keeping these hot hitters in check on Friday night. You can make this SGP work with any two Rangers hitters. So here is why I am going with Marcus Semien and Nathaniel Lowe.
Let's start with Semien. He is red hot, with 10 hits in his last three games. He has a .560 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers this year. He has also only walked twice in 52 plate appearances versus lefties, which is always a good trait to look for when seeking total base props.
Lowe is also swinging a hot bat, with 11 hits during a six-game hitting streak. He also has an excellent history against Gomber. In seven plate appearances, Lowe has four hits, including a double and a home run.
I considered substituting Lowe for Adolis Garcia, but Gomber has walked Garcia in half of their lifetime meetings. Gomber seems willing to let Lowe beat him instead of Garcia. This would also lower the payout of this SGP below +400, so that is the way I am going this route.
Parlay Odds: +430 at Caesars
