We are back to a full Friday slate in MLB and there are plenty of intriguing matchups on the docket. I have my eye on a few games for which I have put together some Same Game Parlays (SGP).
It just so happens that the best prices for all three are currently found on Caesars. However, FanDuel does offer a 30% boost on all qualifying (+400 or better) parlays on Fridays. Feel free to adjust any of these as you see fit if you want to take advantage of that promo. Here are my three favorite SGPs for Friday's MLB slate.
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Friday's Best MLB Same Game Parlay Bets
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
San Diego Padres @ Boston Red Sox
- Leg 1: Total Runs Over 6.5 (-429)
- Leg 2: Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-184)
- Leg 3: Randy Vasquez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-194)
- Leg 4: Connor Wong Over 0.5 Singles (-115)
For our first SGP for Friday, we head to Beantown, where the Boston Red Sox host the San Diego Padres. This feels like a matchup that favors the home team, especially in the starting pitching department.
Nick Pivetta will be on the bump for Boston. Pivetta has a 3.95 expected ERA and 3.56 xFIP this season. On the other side is Randy Vasquez. Vasquez carries a 5.10 ERA and 6.81 xERA into this contest. His 4.58 xFIP is slightly better but does little to inspire much confidence against a tough Red Sox offense.
During June, both the Padres and Red Sox rank in the top five in MLB in terms of wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers. While I give Pivetta the edge on the mound, both teams should be able to push runs across the plate.
The total for this game is 9.5, so I reduced that number quite a bit, and am taking the Over on 6.5. You can raise that total if there is another way you prefer to play this SGP.
I am also grabbing the Red Sox on the moneyline and I like Vasquez to go under his 4.5-strikeout line. Vasquez has had three or fewer punchouts in seven of his 10 starts this season, so I don't even mind going under 3.5 if the situation calls for it.
Finally, I like Connor Wong to get a single in this game. These bets can often be tricky, but Wong has some pretty pronounced splits versus right-handed pitchers.
Wong is hitting .318 against righties this year and doing so with a minuscule 2.8% walk rate. Of his 42 base hits versus right-handers, 33 have been singles. Caesars has Wong at -234 to record a hit, but -115 to record a single. Given the data, I will take my chances on him hitting a single.
Parlay Odds: +400
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
- Leg 1: Steven Kwan Over 1.5 Total Bases (-127)
- Leg 2: Bobby Witt Over 1.5 Total Bases (-133)
- Leg 3: Triston McKenzie Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Consider this your periodic reminder to always shop for the best price available. As I am writing this, Caesars has this SGP priced at +475. FanDuel has it at +323. That means for every dollar wagered on this SGP, you get an extra $1.52 in potential return at Caesars compared to FanDuel. That is a massive discrepancy.
Now, for the SGP itself. We'll start with Steven Kwan, who has been an absolute wagon. In addition to hitting .373 this season, Kwan has shown legitimate pop, especially against right-handed pitchers. Kwan enters Friday's game with a .580 slugging percentage against righties this season. He has also had great success in limited action versus Friday's starter for Kansas City, Alec Marsh.
Kwan is 3-for-4 with a double and a triple against Marsh and profiles well against his arsenal. Marsh primarily attacks left-handed hitters with a four-seam fastball, curveball and changeup. He has thrown these three pitches 80% of the time when a lefty is at the plate, while occasionally sprinkling in a slider and sinker.
Kwan is hitting .408 versus four-seamers this year, with a .316 average on curveballs and a .318 mark versus changeups. For good measure, he is hitting .426 against sinkers and .294 versus sliders. He is slugging .574 or better against four-seamers, sinkers and sliders.
His expected stats are a bit less robust in the slugging department, but he does have an expected batting average of .342 or higher versus four-seamers, sinkers and changeups. This is a favorable matchup for Kwan no matter how you slice it, and I like him to continue his success against Marsh in this game.
For the next two legs, we need not look much further than the matchup between these two clubs back on June 4. In that game, starting pitcher Triston McKenzie struck out seven Royals, but not before serving up two home runs to Bobby Witt Jr.
McKenzie has not been sharp lately, to say the least. He has allowed 21 earned runs in just 32.2 innings over his last six starts. However, this strikeout number is such a low bar to clear for the Guardians right-hander.
McKenzie has struck out at least four hitters in five of those six and 11 of his last 12 starts and at least five hitters in 10 of those 12. Despite his recent struggles, I expect McKenzie to record at least four strikeouts in this game.
Not only does Witt have success against McKenzie, but he has been a monster at home this year. Witt is slugging .655 at Kauffman Stadium and carries a 22-home game-hitting streak into Friday night. He has recorded at least two total bases in 16 of those 22 games.
Parlay Odds: +475
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves
- Leg 1: Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-178)
- Leg 2: Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 Total Bases (-129)
- Leg 3: Charlie Morton Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+108)
Martin Perez will make his first start in over a month on Friday following a stint on the injured list (IL) due to a groin injury. Ironically, Perez suffered the injury against the Braves, lasting just three innings in an 8-1 loss.
The veteran left-hander enters Friday's matchup with a 5.70 expected ERA. He is near the bottom of the league in nearly all advanced metrics. While Atlanta is not quite as deadly against southpaws as they were a year ago, they still have a 114 wRC+ versus lefties in June. I expect them to get to Perez early and often, which should lead to a Braves victory.
A big part of Atlanta's offensive prowess versus lefties is Ozzie Albies. The Braves second baseman is hitting .326 and slugging .512 when facing a left-handed pitcher this year. As good as those numbers are, they are a shade lower than his career marks. And Albies has owned Perez in their head-to-head meetings.
Albies is 5-for-6 with a double and two home runs against Perez in their careers. Considering Albies has only walked in 3.8% of his career plate appearances versus lefties, I love adding his total bases to this SGP.
Finally, I am betting on Charlie Morton to record at least six strikeouts against his former club. Morton has been up and down this year, hitting this prop in eight of his 14 starts. But I like the chances of him going over his strikeout total on Friday.
Morton has had success versus Pirates hitters in the past, including a 24.1% strikeout rate. Pittsburgh has struck out in 25.1% of their plate appearances versus right-handed pitchers this month, including 25.6% on the road.
Despite Morton's inconsistency, manager Brian Snitker usually trusts the veteran to pitch deep into games. Morton has faced at least 23 hitters in 12 of his last 13 starts. If that trend continues, I believe Morton will be able to strike out at least six hitters in this game.
If you trust Atlanta's offense more than Morton, you can take them on the run line and reduce Morton's strikeout total to 4.5. This would reduce the payout slightly but would still remain over the +400 threshold.
Parlay Odds: +440
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
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