Okay, what did I learn from last week’s picks?
- Pitcher Over/Under Outs, related to bullpen usage works pretty well. In fact, most books don’t allow this to be parlayed in a SGP. A sign sharps are on this bet. Holding on to this.
- Tossing in guys based on lineup position to get hits/RBIs is not super effective. Who would have thought.
I’m not worried, betting is like that game Mastermind, hammer down what’s working and shuffle the rest around until it falls back into place. The plan to think like a manager with these pitching props? Let’s keep that going. Real merit behind that. But that’s just one leg of an SGP. So, how can we fill these SGPs? Let’s brainstorm:
- Advanced analytics chasing matchups? I can tell you from experience, this is a hard road to go down. Plus this is beaten to death by everyone else. Pass.
- Blind Trends? Do I care about what happened the last ten times a Diamondbacks pitcher coming off a loss faces a team on a winning streak on a Tuesday day game? Super pass. Super super pass.
- Team Stats? Team stats are more promising than blind trends, but results can be skewed with top-loaded lineups. Although it is helpful to see the aggressiveness of a team, I feel like it’s overall too broad to use effectively. Pass.
- Motivation? Is someone wearing the golden sombrero today (4 strikeouts in one game) who does not usually strike out? Is a pitcher coming off two bad starts in a row? Love it, this is promising. Let’s run with it.
Motivation Picks
Making picks on motivation is presumptuous of me, so I’ll walk a fine line and list situations where, I can guess, players probably feel the need to lock in.
- Golden Sombrero
- A bad stretch of starts for a pitcher *emphasis, above average walks*
- Power hitters in a cold stretch
- Facing a sweep with an off day the next day
I feel pretty good about those four. I am not entirely sure how to quantify them, but gotta start somewhere:
Golden Sombrero (Players that struck out four times on April 23rd)
- Tyrone Taylor (CF – NYM)
- Anthony Volpe (SS – NYY)
- Jon Berti (3B – CHC)
I absolutely refuse to bet on any of these players. So I’ll change the rules to:
Silver Sombrero? (Players that struck out three times on April 23rd)
- Kyle Schwarber (OF – PHI)
- Anthony Santander (DH – TOR)
- Byron Buxton (OF – MIN)
- Mike Trout (OF – LAA)
- Jackson Chourios (OF – MIL)
Starting Pitchers with an ERA > 6 starting on April 24th
- Chris Paddack | ERA – 7.27 ERA
- Chase Dollander | ERA – 7.36 ERA
- Cade Povich | ERA – 6.38 ERA
Not really an inspiring list of players I want to target.
Players with BABIP under .200 but > 8 XBH on season
- Mike Trout – .121
- Eugenio Suarez – .149
- Jazz Chisholm – .154
- Kyle Manzardo – .191
Facing a sweep with a day off the next day
None, as there is a full slate on Friday, but these teams are facing a sweep on Thursday:
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Los Angeles Angels
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Thursday’s Best MLB Same Game Parlay Picks
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Angels
- Leg 1: Mike Trout Over 0.5 Hits (-185)
- Leg 2: Tyler Anderson Under 16.5 Outs (-115)
- Leg 3: Angels Moneyline (-142)
What’s standing out is Mike Trout, let’s grab him Over .5 Hits (-185) against a Pirates pitcher with a 2.00 WHIP in 2025.
Now checking out FantasyPros bullpen advisor, the Angels’ bullpen has four players who have not pitched in three days, with their entire bullpen throwing a total of 124 pitches in 4 days. The bullpen has been reset, I foresee a short leash for Tyler Anderson. Plus, he’s facing seven righties tomorrow. Books seem to be on to this already, but still give me the Under of 16.5 outs recorded (-115). Easy enough so far.
Speaking of Motivation, the Angels are trying to avoid a sweep at home and have a fully rested bullpen. In the vein of motivation, let’s ride the Angels’ moneyline. They’ll fight hard to avoid getting swept, potentially emptying their bullpen in what I foresee as a low-scoring game.
Parlay Odds: +420
I feel great about it. Until next week!
