A stat correction with Blake Snell’s earned runs turned a 2-1 day into a 1-2 result. Let’s find our way back into the winning circle for today’s slate of games. Here are three of my favorite player props for Friday, September 6.
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A stat correction with Blake Snell’s earned runs turned a 2-1 day into a 1-2 result. Let’s find our way back into the winning circle for today’s slate of games. Here are three of my favorite player props for Friday, September 6.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
MLB Sleeper Picks Player Predictions
Sleeper Record: 194-112 (63.4%)
One of the best pitchers in the game, facing a vulnerable young squad? Yes, please. Wheeler takes on the Marlins, who are throwing out a borderline AAA lineup following the trade deadline. They have surprisingly held their own, but they also haven’t faced the sort of starter Wheeler is very often over the past month. He’s the Phillies’ workhorse, and they could use some innings tonight, after getting just five from Ranger Suarez yesterday.
There couldn’t be a better strikeout matchup for the Nationals’ young southpaw today. Herz takes on the Pirates, who have the worst K% (33.4%) and are 27th in wRC+ (68) over the past 30 days against left-handed pitching. Each of the past eight lefties to face them has gone over this mark. Six of those eight have finished with eight strikeouts. The Nationals’ young lefty probably won’t work past five innings, but he has the strikeout stuff to get to six despite that. He ranks in the top 94th percentile in K%, 90th in swinging strike rate, and 84th in CSW% among starters this season.
Sometimes these higher juiced props still have value to them. Matthews had a 2.7% BB% across 205 innings in the minors and has stayed under this in 20 of 22 starts altogether this year. That includes both the minor leagues and his four starts in the Majors. He faces the Royals, who aren’t known for walking very much, thanks to their high swing rate. Over the past 30 days, they have been 23rd in BB% (7.2%) when facing righties.
Tyler is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from him, follow @808Paperboi
