Baseball is back and we’ve got it on all Thursday! With two postponements, the slate has been slimmed down to 13 games, but there’s still a bevy of baseball watching to be done this Opening Day. Here are three of my favorite player props to target over at Sleeper for March 28th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Sleeper Picks Player Predictions
Sleeper Record: 4-2
The Twins send Pablo Lopez to the mound this Opening Day as they take on their division rivals, the Kansas City Royals. Lopez had his way against them throughout last season and there’s no reason to think that stops this season. Their roster owns a .266 xwOBA and 31.5 K% across 73 plate appearances against him. He struck out eight, seven and 12 batters in three starts vs. K.C. last season. This was also a line he went over in 26/32 (82%) starts last year while ranking in the top 93rd percentile in xFIP, K%, and CSW%.
Baseball is back and we’ve got it on all Thursday! With two postponements, the slate has been slimmed down to 13 games, but there’s still a bevy of baseball watching to be done this Opening Day. Here are three of my favorite player props to target over at Sleeper for March 28th.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Thursday’s Best MLB Sleeper Picks Player Predictions
Sleeper Record: 4-2
The Twins send Pablo Lopez to the mound this Opening Day as they take on their division rivals, the Kansas City Royals. Lopez had his way against them throughout last season and there’s no reason to think that stops this season. Their roster owns a .266 xwOBA and 31.5 K% across 73 plate appearances against him. He struck out eight, seven and 12 batters in three starts vs. K.C. last season. This was also a line he went over in 26/32 (82%) starts last year while ranking in the top 93rd percentile in xFIP, K%, and CSW%.
There’s a strong likelihood the Cubs southpaw doesn’t work deep into this game. Justin Steele’s out prop sits at 14.5, so it would be surprising to see him work six frames. That’s because he maxed out at 64 pitches and four innings this spring. This also isn’t an easy matchup for him to find many punchouts. The Rangers pummelled lefties last season and return a similar lineup. They were fifth in wRC+ (115) and 20th in K% (21.9%) when facing left-handed pitching. Steele faced the Rangers last April and only recorded three strikeouts across six innings.
Josiah Gray was sent over to the Nationals in a blockbuster trade which sent Trae Turner to the Dodgers a couple of years back. He has yet to do anything with his prospect shine, struggling with his control throughout his time in the big leagues. He ranked in the bottom-sixth percentile in BB% among all starters last season. Due to his poor command, he was also in the 18th percentile in xFIP, 32% in CSW% and 44% in K%. He stayed under this mark in 19/30 starts (63%) last season. Until he proves some changes, this is a line worth attacking.
Pitching at Great American Ball Park won’t do him any favors. The Reds’ home park rates as the third-best hitting park over the last three seasons. Of the projected lineup for Cincinnati, Elle De La Cruz, Will Benson, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Tyler Stephenson are the ones to worry about, with projected strikeout rates of 24% or higher for this season. Because it is Opening Day, Gray probably won’t go deeper than 85 pitches, though, so take the under.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:
Tyler Gentile is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tyler, follow him @808Paperboi
