MLB takes center stage tonight, and the MLB Underdog pick ’em lobby is stuffed. Still, all of the most exciting selections are hitter props from two offenses in eruption spots. Fortunately, those props are correlated.
MLB takes center stage tonight, and the MLB Underdog pick ’em lobby is stuffed. Still, all of the most exciting selections are hitter props from two offenses in eruption spots. Fortunately, those props are correlated.
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
- Top Bettor Picks for MLB
- MLB PrizePicks Cheat Sheet
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet >>
Wednesday’s Best MLB Underdog Fantasy Player Predictions
Byron Buxton HIGHER 8.0 Fantasy Points
Byron Buxton has excelled in same-handed matchups. According to FanGraphs, in 783 plate appearances against righties since 2022, Buxton has hit 46 homers with a .312 OBP, .268 ISO and 126 wRC+. The fly in the ointment was his 29.1 K%.
Fortunately, Boston’s starting pitcher is ill-equipped to exploit Buxton’s strikeout issue. In two big-league starts, Richard Fitts has had a 9.5 K% and 4.5 SwStr% (11.0% is the league average). Buxton also has ideal hitting conditions. According to FantasyPros, Fenway Park has the second-highest park factor for runs (1.170), and right-handed batters have park factors of 1.133 for singles, 1.176 for doubles, 1.350 for triples and 1.166 for homers.
Matt Wallner HIGHER 1.5 Total Bases (Scorcher 1.07x)
Matt Wallner will enjoy the same cushy matchup. Additionally, left-handed batters have park factors of 1.111 for singles, 1.409 for doubles, 2.340 for triples and 0.887 for homers. Like Buxton, Wallner’s 33.5 K% versus righties in his career is a fly in the ointment in his hitting profile against them.
Wallner is otherwise a terror for righties. In 457 career plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Wallner has hit 29 doubles, one triple and 26 homers with a .276 batting average, .563 slugging and .287 ISO. He should muscle up in a matchup against a pitch-to-contact rookie.
Corbin Carroll HIGHER 8.0 Fantasy Points
Corbin Carroll has thrived against righties. In 1,001 career plate appearances against righties, Carroll has hit 38 homers with a .351 OBP, .237 ISO and 130 wRC+. He’s also an excellent base stealer, swiping 29 in 149 games this year and 85 in 336 games in his career.
Thankfully, Carroll is in superb form after a slow start to the season. In Carroll’s previous 26 games and 122 plate appearances, he’s hit seven homers and stolen eight bases, with 25 runs, 19 RBIs, a .369 OBP, .311 ISO and 158 wRC+.
The speedy do-it-all outfielder has a tasty matchup tonight. Colin Rea has allowed a .324 wOBA to 337 lefties this year. He’s also allowed 13 stolen bases in 29 appearances (25 starts) this year.
Joc Pederson HIGHER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (Scorcher 1.1x)
Joc Pederson is an accomplished platoon hitter, smashing against righties. In 1,135 plate appearances against right-handed pitching since 2022, he’s hit 56 homers with a .367 OBP, .235 ISO and 140 wRC+. Moreover, Pederson is having a career year for the Diamondbacks.
In 425 plate appearances this year, he’s hit 22 homers with 60 runs, 61 RBIs, a .279 batting average, .271 xBA, .520 slugging, .501 xSLG and .241 ISO. Nestled in the heart of Arizona’s lineup, Pederson should exceed 1.5 hits plus runs and RBIs. FantasyPros projects Pederson to have 2.22 hits plus runs and RBIs tonight.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.