It’s a busy night for MLB. As a result, there is a mix of exciting Underdog pick ’em choices for hitters and pitchers and appealing “higher” and “lower” selections.
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet >>
It’s a busy night for MLB. As a result, there is a mix of exciting Underdog pick ’em choices for hitters and pitchers and appealing “higher” and “lower” selections.
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet >>
Tuesday’s Best MLB Underdog Fantasy Player Predictions
Orlando Arcia HIGHER 0.5 Runs
Orlando Arcia is an ideal table setter against lefties and is temporarily Atlanta’s No. 2 hitter. According to FanGraphs, in 226 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Arcia has had a .354 OBP, .207 ISO and 125 wRC+.
He’s also having a superb year at the dish and has a good matchup tonight. In 84 plate appearances this season, Arcia has a .369 OBP, .156 ISO and 135 wRC+. Since last year, 131 righties have had a .351 OBP and .334 wOBA against Trevor Rogers. FantasyPros projects Arcia to score 0.63 runs tonight.
Travis d’Arnaud HIGHER 1.5 Total Bases (Scorcher x1.25)
Travis d’Arnaud’s total bases over is a “scorcher” prop, meaning it will multiply an Underdog pick ’em card by 1.25. Speaking of scorching, d’Arnaud is on fire. He’s had an extra-base hit in four of his previous five games, smashing one single, one double and five homers in 22 plate appearances in those contests. Furthermore, in 219 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, d’Arnaud has hit 14 doubles and 11 homers with a .308 batting average, .549 slugging and .241 ISO.
Griffin Canning LOWER 5.5 Strikeouts
Griffin Canning is struggling this season. In four starts spanning 19.0 innings, he has an 8.05 ERA, 5.36 xERA and 4.43 SIERA. The righty also has a career-low 18.2 K% and a career-worst 26.7 CSW%. Canning’s average fastball velocity in 2024 is down to 92.9 mph from 94.8 mph in 2023, and his pitch modeling is underwhelming.
He’s struck out fewer than 5.5 batters in three of four starts. The Orioles are also a nightmare matchup. This year, Baltimore is second in wRC+ (131) and has a tiny 19.9 K% against righties. They’re also tied for fourth in wRC+ (121) and have a 19.0 K% on the road. Thus, Canning is projected to strike out only 5.09 hitters tonight.
Logan Webb HIGHER 18.5 Pitching Outs
Logan Webb is a workhorse stud at home. In 125.2 innings at home since last year, he’s had a 2.15 ERA, 2.82 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, 3.3 BB% and 22.6 K%. Additionally, Webb has recorded over 18.5 outs in 13 of 18 starts at home since last season. Finally, he’s recorded over 18.5 outs at home in both home starts this year.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
