MLB Underdog Player Prop Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (5/1)

Today’s Underdog pick ’em choices are focused on the games starting at 7:10 p.m. ET or later. The lobby isn’t overflowing on tonight’s medium-sized slate. Fortunately, the following four choices were eye-catching. Here are our top MLB Underdog Picks for today’s slate of games.

Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet >>

Wednesday’s Best MLB Underdog Picks

Jose Butto HIGHER 15.5 Pitching Outs

Jose Butto is outproducing his ERA estimators. Yet, he’s done so on a few occasions in the upper minors, so it’s not necessarily a fluke. According to FanGraphs, Butto has a 2.86 ERA, 4.06 SIERA and 1.09 WHIP in four starts spanning 22.0 innings this season.

In addition, he’s recorded over 15.5 outs in three of four starts this season, all of which were at home. Since last season, Butto has recorded over 15.5 outs in four consecutive home starts. Butto’s matchup is unimposing tonight. This season, the Cubs are 21st in wRC+ (94) against righties and 25th in wRC+ (83) on the road.

Tomas Nido LOWER 0.5 Total Bases

Tomas Nido is a glove-first catcher. Even with the platoon advantage, he’s a dreadful hitter. In 195 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, he has had a .223 batting average and 63 wRC+. Nido has recorded only four hits and a .235 batting average in 18 plate appearances this season.

Furthermore, Nido has had over three plate appearances only once in seven starts this season. He’s buried at the bottom of New York’s lineup and a candidate to be lifted for a pinch-hitter. The light-hitting catcher’s opportunities will likely be limited, and Shota Imanaga has held 77 righties to a .189 batting average.

Nick Senzel HIGHER 1.5 Total Bases (Scorcher 1.1x)

Nick Senzel’s hitting profile this year is all about slugging. In 47 plate appearances, he’s hit one double and five homers with a .214 batting average, .595 slugging and .381 ISO. Senzel isn’t messing around with singles. He’s also not walking often, tallying just a 6.4 BB%.

The 28-year-old big-league veteran also has a track record of success against southpaws. In 283 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Senzel has hit 11 doubles and 12 homers with a .296 batting average, .477 slugging and .181 ISO. He’s had over 1.5 total bases in five of 10 starts, and Senzel’s matchup is favorable. The 600 righties who’ve faced Andrew Heaney since last season have hit 28 doubles, one triple and 26 homers with a .240 batting average and .439 slugging.

Triston McKenzie HIGHER 2.0 Walks

Triston McKenzie’s control has been dreadful this year. In five starts spanning 22.0 innings this season, McKenzie has walked 17 batters with a 16.7 BB%. The righty’s plate discipline numbers are as expected. McKenzie has a 54.9 F-Strike%, 40.7 Zone%, 24.0 O-Swing% and 41.7 Swing% versus league averages of 61.6%, 42.3%, 31.1% and 46.9%, respectively. As a result, McKenzie has walked at least two batters in all five starts this year, walking more than two in three turns.

The Astros can coax more than two free passes out of McKenzie. Houston has an 8.3 BB% against righties this season and a 10.0 BB% at home.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.