We’re headed to Game 2 of the World Series after the Milwaukee Brewers earned a 3-2 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays last night. Let’s add some market-based EV MLB picks for tonight’s World Series matchup.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Saturday’s Best +EV MLB Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Logan Henderson Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (+115 at Hard Rock)
- Fair Value: +107
- Market EV: +4%
The Brewers will ride with Logan Henderson tonight. The right-hander has earned just 14.5% of strikeouts over the last month, while allowing nearly 13% of walks. He’s given up a .205 BABIP, but has also allowed 31.8% of line drives while inducing only 34.1% of ground balls.
In fact, this season, he allowed a .174 ISO to 263 lefties and allowed 52.4% of hard contact with a high amount of fly balls and line drives. Additionally, he only averaged 82.05 pitches per game. In the last month, he’s averaged just 74.33 pitches per game.
You can add Henderson Under 14.5 Outs Recorded at +115 odds via Hard Rock when the fair value is actually +107. This is a solid play on the board!
Jonny DeLuca Under 0.5 Total Bases (+123 at Underdog)
- Fair Value: +112
- Market EV: +5%
Jonny DeLuca has been solid against righties over the last month. However, he’s set to face Henderson, who has been much better against righties throughout the season. In the last month, Henderson has allowed a .000 ISO and a wOBA of .250 against his last 28 righties. He also allowed just a .121 ISO and a .244 wOBA against 150 righties this season.
I wouldn’t count on Jonny DeLuca finding success offensively against Henderson. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee bullpen has been terrific all postseason, so it won’t be any easier when Henderson comes out.
At +123 via Underdog, DeLuca Under 0.5 Total Bases is the play. This play has a 5% EV. That’s good stuff!
Drew Rasmussen Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120 at NoVig)
- Fair Value: +116
- Market EV: +2%
Drew Rasmussen has been elite for the Rays this season. It was surprising he didn’t get the ball for Game 1 of the series. Now the Rays find themselves down 1-0 in the series. They’ll need Rasmussen to be at his best.
That said, he’ll face a Brewers team that really only has three batters with high strikeout rates against righties. As a team, the Brewers struck out only 20.9% of the time against righties in the last month.
Rasmussen might have a solid game, but it likely won’t come from high strikeouts. Not against the Brewers.
At +120 via NoVig, there’s a little positive EV there. Consider grabbing it!
