On Monday night, the 2-5 Browns and 4-3 Bengals will square off in an AFC North showdown in Cleveland. The Bengals have won back-to-back games but will be without star WR Ja'Marr Chase as he recovers from a hip injury. The Browns have lost 4 straight, and need to win this game to turn things around before Deshaun Watson returns from his suspension.
The Bengals come into the game as 3.5-point favorites, and the total on the game sits at 45.5 points. This should be a close matchup in a meaningful game for both teams. Below is a 4-leg parlay available on Draftkings that I'll be playing for the game.
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(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Leg 1: Bengals ML (-150)
Although Cincinnati will be going on the road in a hostile environment against a desperate team, I expect them to come away with a win Monday night. After starting 0-2, the Bengals have won 4 of their last 5 games and have outscored their opponents by 47 points over that stretch. Every team they've played in that stretch has a better record than the Browns.
The Browns are losers of four straight, dropping games to the Falcons, Chargers, Patriots and Ravens over the last four weeks. They've been plagued by an inability to stop the run – these four teams combined to run for 174.5 yards per game against Cleveland.
The Bengals haven't been able to get much going on the ground this season; their 87.5 team rush yards per game is a bottom-five mark in the NFL. They rank bottom-three in yards per carry. Even despite this, they're middle-of-the-pack in carries per game (24.7). I expect them to continue to focus on running the ball and find better success against Cleveland than they have all year. This, combined with the dynamic passing game they can roll out even without Ja'Marr Chase, should allow them to keep the Browns’ defense guessing.
Leg 2: Joe Mixon 90+ Rush Yards (+250)
As I mentioned, the Browns’ run defense is one of the worst in the NFL. On the season they've allowed opposing RBs to rush for 5.0 yards per carry and 115.3 yards per game, both bottom-five marks in the NFL. Joe Mixon will benefit from the Browns' run defense struggles on Monday night.
Mixon is one of the few true bell-cow RBs in the NFL right now. He’s carried the ball 121 times this season – tied for 4th most in the NFL. Even as the Bengals have struggled to establish the run, they continue to feed Mixon to keep defenses honest against the passing game. Mixon should get plenty of work against the Browns on Monday, especially if the Bengals get out to a lead early and run the ball to stay ahead.
Between the volume he'll see and the poor rush defense he's going against, I'm surprised to see such a good price on Mixon's alternate rushing overs. I feel good about getting aggressive with this leg to help our parlay odds.
Leg 3: Joe Mixon Anytime TD (-110)
Sticking with my thesis that Joe Mixon will have a big game on Monday, I expect him to get in the end zone against the Browns. Cleveland has allowed 12 TDs to RBs this year, the most in the NFL. They've allowed an opposing RB to score a TD in every game this season. In fact, over their last four games, they've allowed at least 2 TDs to opposing RBs in every game.
Mixon has 19 carries within the opponent's 10-yard line this season – the most in the NFL by a margin of 6 carries. When the Bengals get close to the opponent's end zone, they feed Mixon and rely on their ground game to score.
Mixon also has six red zone targets on the season – this is tied for second on the team behind Ja'Marr Chase. With Chase out, Mixon should see opportunity in the passing game as well.
If the rest of this parlay has legs, it seems unlikely that Mixon doesn't find his way to a TD on Monday night.
Leg 4: Amari Cooper Under 79.5 Receiving Yards (-320)
When the Browns are on offense, I expect them to keep the ball on the ground. This strategy works for them this season, as star RB Nick Chubb is having a monster year and Kareem Hunt has been an excellent complimentary piece. They've needed the ground game help – QB Jacoby Brissett has thrown for just 226 yards per game this season.
Passing yards will be especially hard to come by for Cleveland against the Bengals’ defense. Cincinnati has allowed 10.3 catches (3rd fewest in NFL) for 131.0 yards (5th fewest in NFL) this year. This doesn't bode well for Amari Cooper, who will line up across from Chidobe Awuzie on Monday night. Awuzie has allowed just 18 catches on 41 targets this season, good for just a 43.9% completion percentage.
Cooper hasn't had over 80 yards since Week 3, and I don't expect that trend to change against Awuzie and the Bengals on Monday.
Parlay Odds: +675
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