Game 4 of the NBA Finals is tonight. The Knicks are slight home favorites, but the Spurs are looking to send this series back to San Antonio tied at two. Below, I discuss why I think this will be another game with a huge comeback and how the Knicks can keep the Spurs' offense in check. Then, I highlight a Victor Wembanyama prop most are likely overlooking. Here are the best NBA Finals picks for Game 4.
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Wednesday’s Best NBA Finals Picks & Predictions
(Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks
Largest Comeback 10+ Points (+245)
This is a fantastic price considering how the first three games have gone. Both teams led by at least 10 points in the first two games of this series, meaning this bet hit in Games 1 and 2. While it didn't hit in Game 3, it was pretty close, as the Knicks led by seven at halftime before the Spurs ultimately won.
The main reason I think this price is nearly +250 is that oddsmakers expect the Knicks to have a better first quarter than usual. They’ve spotted the Spurs at least eight points in each of the first three games, which is a big reason this comeback prop has hit with relative ease. If the Knicks come out with more focus early, then perhaps they could lead this game wire-to-wire.
But I'm banking on the Spurs playing this game with as much desperation as they did in Game 3. Even if they get punched in the mouth early, I expect them to continue cutting into the lead of the game and potentially even the lead in this series before heading back to San Antonio.
If the Knicks come out as sluggish as they have been, then it's all but guaranteed that the Spurs will lead by at least 10 points early on, and the Knicks will have to claw back like they've done all series.
Spurs Team Total Under 107.5 Points (-110)
The Spurs are coming off a 115-point performance in Game 3, but I still don't trust their offense in this game. Though the Spurs had only eight turnovers in Game 3, taking care of the ball has been a huge problem for San Antonio this series. The Spurs had 29 turnovers in the first two games, with 16 in Game 2.
Additionally, the Spurs' three-point shooting just hasn't been on point. They've yet to make more than 12 threes in a game, despite averaging 12.7 per game this postseason. That's the power of this Knicks' defense. They're holding opponents to just 30.8% from deep in the playoffs, which is by far the best of any team that qualified.
But the Knicks have been good from inside the arc as well. They're holding teams to just 101.3 points per game, and they've only allowed more than 110 points twice. They've held seven teams to fewer than 100 points this postseason. The only time they allowed more than 107 points in a home game this postseason was on Monday.
Victor Wembanyama 3-2-1 Race Winner (+250)
This final prop looks at who is most likely to be the first player in this game to make at least one three-pointer, one two-pointer and one free throw. While Karl-Anthony Towns may look enticing to some at +475 odds, he's failed to make a single three-pointer in two of his three games this series. Therefore, this comes down to Victor Wembanyama and Jalen Brunson.
Brunson is the current favorite, but I'm backing Wembanyama because of his ability to get to the free-throw line. Wembanyama is averaging 10 free throws per game in the NBA Finals, and he's attempted at least eight in all three games. Meanwhile, Brunson is averaging just 5.7 attempts. In his first two games, he shot just a total of nine free throws.
The three-point leg of this prop feels like an advantage for Brunson, but he's made just one more three than Wembanyama this series. Wembanyama has made two in all three games, and he's averaging 6.3 attempts from deep.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.