Welcome to another day of basketball as we are deep into the NBA season with the All-Star break behind us. If you're just joining us for the first time, welcome. It's been a great year, and I hope we continue that trend as we look to the playoffs.
We have a five-game slate tonight, so we have plenty of options for player props. As always, monitor injury news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay sharp regarding NBA player props is by staying on top of the news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Thursday's Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 1-2 | Season: 106-82
Jaden McDaniels Under 18.5 Points + Assists (-120 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Los Angeles Lakers have quietly been excellent defensively, going 8-2 in their last 10 games with the third-most efficient defense and the best defense overall in the last 15 games. Surprisingly, even the frontcourt has been solid, limiting opposing power forwards to the sixth-fewest points and assists.
Los Angeles ranks 22nd in pace of play, which is still a pace up for Minnesota, but it's expected to be a slower-paced game. Jaden McDaniels is coming off an electric outing against Oklahoma City, which is why this prop line is so high, but he's only averaging 12 points a night with a pair of assists. Regressing to the mean is not expected, and even if he goes over that mark, he is still far from covering the line. This is a juiced line for sure, but I don't mind spending on the prop here and riding McDaniels' under.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 44.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-122 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
I don't feel like people are giving enough hype to this game and the 241-point total. Giannis Antetokounmpo has consistently been playing with a 35% usage rate since returning after the All-Star break and despite lower-scoring efforts, he's due for a bounce-back game.
In the last 15 games, the Nuggets have allowed the fourth-most combined points + assists + rebounds to opposing power forwards. Denver has played at the fifth-fastest pace in the NBA this year with the 19th-ranked defense over their recent 15 matches. Antetokounmpo has covered this line in 67% of games this season, so even with down efforts, there is clear value on the line here. His minutes are creeping back up and I project him back to his standard 34 minutes per game average with an extra possession rate. Again, it's a juiced line. I apologize for being so boring, but it is still a play I strongly back.
Franz Wagner Under 30 Points + Rebounds (-110 at BetMGM)
People have been sleeping on the Warriors, but they are 10-5 in the last 15 games with the fourth-best defense. The total is only 210 and Franz Wagner's usage has taken a bit of a hit since the All-Star break. Last time out against Golden State, Wagner didn't manage to get over this line.
The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet projects Wagner for closer to 27 on the combo prop, and I'd follow the Sheet to the grave. It's a great tool for all your betting needs. I highly recommend investing in it to increase your betting game. Golden State has allowed the third-fewest points to opposing small forwards and I trust they will similarly limit Wagner tonight.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.