Welcome to another day of NBA prop betting. The NFL is done, and it's time to hunker down for the cold with the All-Star break approaching. As always, monitor any potential news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is to stay up-to-date with the latest news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value.
Today features a massive 14-game slate with the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and players settled with their new teams. I'm guessing a lot of these props will move a bunch throughout the day, so be early on what you love and quick off any changes. Either way, stay on top of the news to get your bets in before props shift to get solid closing line value. Anyways, let's get to the best bets of the day.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Wednesday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 2-1 | This Season: 53-42
James Harden Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds (-102 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
After being traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers, we quickly get an awesome matchup for James Harden to spread his wings and the ball. The Cavaliers are a whopping 18-point favorites against a Wizards squad dealing with injury concerns with Bilal Coulibaly and Kyshawn George questionable.
The total is set at 236 points because of Washington's second-lowest-ranked defense while maintaining the sixth-highest pace of play. Over the last 15 games, both those numbers rank in the bottom 10 and the top 10 in the league, respectively. Harden has played two games as a Cavalier, recording a 24% usage rate and averaging 34 minutes per game.
I have to imagine that as he settles in, those numbers will only increase. This is a line Harden has covered in both games against Washington this year. Obviously, he's in a much different setting with the best offensive unit in the league over their last 15 games with a top-10 pace of play. There will be ample opportunity in this game. I'm buying stock now as I don't expect this prop to stay as low for future games.
Matas Buzelis Under 24.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-125 at Hard Rock Bet)
With the B-team Bulls starting against the Boston Celtics, it's difficult to judge new usage rates and minutes projections. But the books overshot this one for Matas Buzelis tonight. The Bulls forward has averaged 28 minutes a night this season, and while that number has jumped to over 29 minutes recently, this combo prop line is too high.
The main reason is that there isn't a slower team in the league than the Boston Celtics. The total is 226, and that's with Boston as a 14-point favorite. The Celtics have also been a top-four defensive unit in their last 15 games while maintaining a top-10 spot all season. I expect the Bulls to struggle across the board, and that starts with Buzelis. Anfernee Simons is getting his feet wet, and Buzelis is not good enough to power his way to the over on this prop against Boston.
Nikola Jokic Over 24.5 Points (-115 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
For one of the safer wagers tonight, I'm betting on the best player in the league to score points. A shocking bet, I know. Nikola Jokic has struggled to cover this prop in four of his last five games, which is why I'm so in on a bounce-back performance. For a lot of players, I trust trends for small samples, but for Jokic, it's hard to doubt he will continue struggling.
This game sports a 236 total with Denver a near 14-point favorite. The Nuggets center has averaged 29 points a game this season, and he appears to be fully healthy again, with steady minutes over his last two weeks of play. The Grizzlies’ defense has struggled of late, sporting the 26th-ranked defense, while still offering a pace-up spot to the Nuggets.
There's a chance Denver gets out to an early lead and coasts, which could lead to Jokic not hitting his line, but it could also be the case that they’re leading because Jokic is putting up buckets. As long as he doesn't end up on the injury report, don't be afraid to bet some alts here.
Additional NBA Player Prop Bets
- Zion Williamson Over 31.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-110 at Hard Rock Bet)
- Sandro Mamukelashvili Under 22.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-122 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Donte DiVincenzo Over 18.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.