Arguably, the best sporting event of the year starts on Tuesday as the 2026 NCAA Men’s Tournament kicks off with two First Four games, followed by two more First Four March Madness contests on Wednesday.
Like always, the First Four pits two matchups of No. 11 seeds and two matchups of No. 16 seeds playing their way into the 64-team field. These First Four games often provide intense drama and serve as the perfect appetizer to the marathon of Round of 64 games we will consume on Thursday and Friday.
Here are our two best bets for the First Four games and leans for the others.
- NCAA Tournament Odds
- NCAA Tournament Pick’Em Contest
- NCAA Tournament March Madness Bracket Optimizer
- NCAA Tournament Betting Trends
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Best NCAA Tournament First Four Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
No. 16 UMBC Retrievers vs. No. 16 Howard Bison
UMBC is in the “Big Dance” for the first time since 2018, when it became the first No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1, and I expect it to have the chance to face a No. 1 seed again.
The Retrievers are red-hot, having won 12 consecutive games, including their first two America East Conference Tournament games by a combined 37 points. They are winning by an average of 16.8 points over those 12 games, playing to the equivalent of the 86th-best team in the country during the winning streak.
Ever since UMBC inserted 6-foot-10 Spaniard Jose Roberto Tanchyn into the starting lineup, the team has taken off, as it is 10.5 adjusted points per possession better with him on the floor. Teams are unwilling to attack the rim on UMBC as much with him patrolling the middle. The Retrievers allowed a 32.3% field-goal attempt rate at the rim through the first 21 games, but just 22.8% over the last 11 games (which ranks in the 98th percentile).
UMBC should have a huge advantage inside against Howard, as it ranks in the 94th percentile for two-point attempts in the paint, and in the 96th percentile for efficiency on such shots. Though KenPom projects a 71-70 Howard victory, I trust in UMBC’s trio of guards, who all average in the double figures.
Bet: UMBC -1.5 (+1021)
No. 16 Prairie View A&M Panthers vs. No. 16 Lehigh Mountain Hawks
Prairie View A&M is 19-12 to the under despite playing at the 23rd-fastest adjusted tempo in the country. The under has cashed in eight of their last nine games, largely because the first-half under is 7-0 in their last seven games.
Prairie View A&M has found great success during its seven-game winning streak, slowing the tempo after building a halftime lead. It should continue to rely on its NCAA Division 1-best effective field goal rate defense, which it has sported through the winning streak, per Bart Torvik.
Meanwhile, Lehigh has no issues playing at a slow tempo (205th), and its bottom-15 offensive rebounding rate is by design to slow down opponents’ fast breaks. The Mountain Hawks also do an outstanding job running teams off the three-point line, as their 35.3% three-point rate allowed was the best in the Patriot League.
Lehigh also forces you to beat it in isolation, allowing the lowest assist rate (48%) in its conference as well.
Bet: Under 143.5 Points (-110)
Additional Leans
- No. 11 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 11 NC State Wolfpack - Texas +1.5 (-130)
- No. 11 Miami (OH) Redhawks vs. No. 11 SMU Mustangs - Miami (OH) +7.5 (-108)
More NCAA Tournament Picks
#1 Duke vs. #16 Siena
#8 Ohio State vs. #9 TCU
#5 St. John’s vs. #12 Northern Iowa
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Cal Baptist
#6 Louisville vs. #11 South Florida
#3 Michigan State vs. #14 North Dakota State
#7 UCLA vs. #10 UCF
#2 UConn vs. #15 Furman
#1 Arizona vs. #16 LIU
#8 Villanova vs. #9 Utah State
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 High Point
#4 Arkansas vs. #13 Hawai’i
#11 Texas vs. North Carolina State
#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Kennesaw State
#7 Miami (FL) vs. #10 Missouri
#2 Purdue vs. #15 Queens
#16 UMBC vs. Howard
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Saint Louis
#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Hofstra
#11 Miami OH vs. SMU
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Wright State
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Santa Clara
#2 Iowa State vs. #15 Tennessee State
#16 Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh
#8 Clemson vs. #9 Iowa
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese
#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy
#6 North Carolina vs. #11 VCU
#3 Illinois vs. #14 Penn
#7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Texas A&M
#2 Houston vs. #15 Idaho
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.