Two trips to Indianapolis and the Final Four are on the line Saturday. The South Region's Iowa and Illinois matchup will get things started in a Big Ten bout in Houston. The night cap will feature the two top seeded teams in the West with Purdue and Arizona squaring off in San Jose. Let's look at both of these matchups for some NCAA Tournament player props and bets to play.
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Saturday’s Best NCAA Tournament Player Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bennett Stirtz Over 3.5 Assists (-160)
The Drake transfer has been crucial in Iowa's run to the Elite Eight. He's scored 16.3 PPG despite shooting just 21.4% from deep. However, it's the work he's done moving the ball all season that has me eyeing this prop. His 3.7 APG in the tournament puts him over this prop. That's a reason why it's priced the way it is, but this should be a number he hits easily.
In the regular season matchup with the Illini, Stirtz recorded six assists. This tracks with Illinois being a team that allows a high rate of assists due in part to the fact that they're one of the worst defenses in the country at turning their opponents over. On Thursday against Houston, they did a good job keeping Houston off the scoreboard. Of the 22 field goals they made, the Cougars assisted 17 of them.
Stirtz is top 300 in the nation in usage rate so you know he'll have the ball on almost every possession. The Iowa offense will run through him and like the last matchup with the Illini, he will get plenty of assist chances. I like him to go over this number. I would even take the o4.5 at a plus number that some books are offering.
Tomislav Ivisic Over 8.5 Points (-130)
With big names on the offensive end like Keaton Wagler, Andrej Stojakovic, and Kylan Boswell, Illinois is ranked as one of the best offensive teams in the country. In the tournament though, the big man Ivisic has been putting in work. Ivisic has averaged 11.7 PPG in the tournament so far and has done so on an impressive 59.1% shooting from the floor.
Ivisic's size makes him a tough matchup for the Hawkeye defense. They don't guard the paint well as they allow 54.2% on two-pointers, which ranks 282nd in the country. We've already seen big guys have some success scoring on the Iowa in this tournament as Clemson's RJ Godfrey went 6-of-9 from inside the arch for 15 points and Florida's Alex Condon tallied 21 on 8-of-13 shooting. Ivisic should have similar success.
One big advantage Ivisic has to get over this number is that he's capable of popping out and hitting a long range shot once and a while. He's posted a career-high 33.7% 3P% on 4.7 3PA per game. Iowa is going to want to grind this game down. Therefore, Ivisic will help to lead Illinois to their first Final Four in over two decades.
Jaden Bradley Over 16.5 Points + Assists (-122)
One of the key matchups in this game will be between the point guards Jaden Bradley and Braden Smith. Smith is the all-time assist leader in college basketball and has had a decorated career, but one reason he's had success and longevity is his inability to guard long athletic guards. Bradley is the type of the player that can have success against Smith offensively.
Bradley has performed well in the tournament so far. He's eclipsed this number for points and assists in each of the last two games. That's despite not recording a single assist against Utah State. Bradley has an assist rate which ranks 262nd in the nation and against a Purdue defense that allows assists on 57.2% of FGM, I like him to record a few in this one.
Overall, Bradley should have success much like the longer guards Nasir Mann of Queens and Tramon Mark of Texas. Arizona will have success against a Purdue defense that allows 52.4% eFG% on the season. Jaden Bradley will contribute with his scoring and playmaking ability making this one of the best prop bets of the night.
