The bracket is set. The field of 64 is confirmed, and we're ready for the best upcoming four days of sports. It's like Christmas. I'm here today to provide today’s best NCAA Tournament Round 1 PrizePicks predictions.
There is a lot to choose from, which means a lot of money to be made. If you don't know, PrizePicks are essentially player props but available in more states with a simple "More Than/Less Than" option that allows you to compound players together for up to a 25X payout. It's a great way to get into the action, and I'm here to provide you with the best plays. Let's get to it.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
The bracket is set. The field of 64 is confirmed, and we're ready for the best upcoming four days of sports. It's like Christmas. I'm here today to provide today’s best NCAA Tournament Round 1 PrizePicks predictions.
There is a lot to choose from, which means a lot of money to be made. If you don't know, PrizePicks are essentially player props but available in more states with a simple "More Than/Less Than" option that allows you to compound players together for up to a 25X payout. It's a great way to get into the action, and I'm here to provide you with the best plays. Let's get to it.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
NCAA Tournament Round 1 PrizePicks Predictions
Tyler Nickel More Than 12.5 Points
Starting with the zesty No. 12 McNeese versus No. 5 Vanderbilt matchup, I'm riding the perimeter sniper that is Tyler Nickel against these rowdy Cowboys. Everyone knows McNeese is going to force turnovers; that's their thing. Opponents cough up the ball on nearly a quarter of their possessions against the Cowboys, limiting shot volume, but Vanderbilt takes care of the ball at one of the best rates in the nation, a top-11 clip. The Commodores are battle-tested, and with Tyler Tanner at point, I trust them to handle the test where their shot rate won't be impacted too much, especially considering the total is already a healthy 150 points.
That gets us to play style. Haslametrics expects Vanderbilt to take 47% of their shots from deep today, 8% above the Division I average. McNeese funnels looks outside, ranking 15th in opponent three-point attempt rate. That's where Nickel comes into play. No Vanderbilt player (with significant minutes) shoots more threes than Nickel, where 75% of his looks come from. Not only will he get a lot of looks here, but he's a 40% shooter from beyond the arc and stayed right around that number at 39.7% away from home this season.
McNeese not only funnels looks outside, but they're good looks. Per Synergy Sports Technology, McNeese ranks in just the 16th percentile in defending the attack-and-kick. With this style, I expect a lot of assists to come from Tanner and Duke Miles as McNeese collapses on the guards and leaves Nickel wide open. If you want a friendlier option here, you can go with Nickel for more than 1.5 three-pointers made, but I'm comfortable playing his points prediction.
Henri Veesaar More Than 18.5 Points
The biggest story that's been hammered over your head, if you've consumed any March Madness preview content, is that Caleb Wilson is missing for North Carolina. And I'm gonna whisper this here, but I think his impact is being a bit overblown. Obviously, North Carolina's ceiling is significantly capped without a future lottery pick, but looking at his on/off splits, the Tar Heels’ offensive efficiency drops from 30th to just 36th.
The biggest beneficiary of Wilson’s absence is Henri Veesaar. The 7-foot-0 center commands usage down low with a top-10 effective field-goal rate, with the capacity to step out and drain it from deep. Veesaar is shooting 42% from deep on 88 attempts this year. Not bad. Without Wilson in the lineup, we've seen Veesaar's post-up rates go from 16% of his plays to 26% of his plays.
Veesaar ranks in the 98th percentile in post-up efficiency, and we've seen VCU struggle in frontcourt defense. The Rams' defense against the post-up ranks 279th, per ShotQuality, and I don't think they've seen anyone like Veesaar yet. VCU allows more looks inside, where the North Carolina big man thrives, and they're going to depend on him a lot more if the Tar Heels expect to win this game. VCU big man Lazar Djokovic will have his hands full here, as I expect Veesaar to coast over his points prediction.
Nolan Winter More Than 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
The return of Nolan Winter is massive for Wisconsin, and not enough people are talking about it. Winter posted that it's "go time" on his Instagram, and Greg Gard confirmed he's ready to play. With Winter on the court, the Badgers’ offense ranks sixth in adjusted efficiency this year, compared to 30th when he's out.
That's not nothing. Against High Point, the Badgers will be raining threes. Over half of their shots are expected to be from deep. That will lead to a lot of long boards and second-chance points where Winter's 7-foot-0 frame comes into play. High Point forces turnovers and is a dangerous defense, but they rank 238th in defensive rebounding rate and have been susceptible to opposing frontcourt pieces dominating the glass. High Point also has a high shot volume but not the best shooters, so Winter should be eating up rebounds defensively.
Winter is an effective passer and will be able to find perimeter cuts or outside looks after an offensive board. I understand his ankle may bother him, but I'd be surprised if he's limited at all, given the stakes of this game. You know we're going with all more than selections for the first day of the tournament.
Additional PrizePicks Predictions
- Xavier Edmonds More Than 21.5 Points + Rebounds
- Gavin Doty Less Than 15 Points
- Kur Teng More Than 9.5 Points
More NCAA Tournament Picks
#1 Duke vs. #16 Siena
#8 Ohio State vs. #9 TCU
#5 St. John’s vs. #12 Northern Iowa
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Cal Baptist
#6 Louisville vs. #11 South Florida
#3 Michigan State vs. #14 North Dakota State
#7 UCLA vs. #10 UCF
#2 UConn vs. #15 Furman
#1 Arizona vs. #16 LIU
#8 Villanova vs. #9 Utah State
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 High Point
#4 Arkansas vs. #13 Hawai’i
#11 Texas vs. North Carolina State
#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Kennesaw State
#7 Miami (FL) vs. #10 Missouri
#2 Purdue vs. #15 Queens
#16 UMBC vs. Howard
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Saint Louis
#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Hofstra
#11 Miami OH vs. SMU
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Wright State
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Santa Clara
#2 Iowa State vs. #15 Tennessee State
#16 Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh
#8 Clemson vs. #9 Iowa
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese
#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy
#6 North Carolina vs. #11 VCU
#3 Illinois vs. #14 Penn
#7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Texas A&M
#2 Houston vs. #15 Idaho
