NCAA Tournament: Sleepers to Know (2026 March Madness)

The 2026 NCAA Tournament Field of 68 has been set, and it’s time to take a deep dive into the mix, looking for sleepers who will fit Cinderella’s slipper. With the advent of the NIL program, it seems like deep runs by lesser-known teams might be a thing of the past.

However, as recently as 2024, we saw NC State make it to the Final Four as a No. 11 seed. In 2016, Syracuse made it to the Final Four as a No. 10 seed. UCLA was a No. 11 seed when it went to the Final Four in 2021. Loyola-Chicago had its magical run as a No. 11 seed in 2018. George Mason (2006), VCU (2011) and LSU (1986) also made the Final Four from that seed.

Last season, we saw all four No. 1 seeds advance to the Final Four. In 2023, we had Florida Atlantic University make its first and only Final Four appearance as a No. 9 seed. Who might be the next sleeper to etch its name into history?

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NCAA Tournament Sleepers

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No. 11 High Point Panthers (West)

Reach Round of 32 (+400)
Reach Sweet 16 (+3000)
Reach Elite Eight (+22500)
Reach Final Four (+50000)
Reach National Championship (+50000)
Win National Championship (+100000)

The High Point Panthers kick off their NCAA Tournament adventure on Thursday at Moda Center in Portland, Oregon, so there won’t be a decisive edge in terms of home crowd. Both teams should have a sparse showing in the stands, although Wisconsin is a Big Ten team that has a much larger alumni base. Will they travel from Madtown to Portland, though, to see a No. 5 seed?

High Point can fill the basket up, posting 90.0 points per game (PPG) to rank third in the nation behind only Alabama (91.7 PPG) and Miami-Ohio (90.7 PPG). The Panthers hit 35.6% of their attempts from behind the arc, averaging 9.2 makes from distance per game. The Panthers had just a 75 NET Ranking out of the Big South Conference, racking up a 15-1 record inside their league.

High Point didn’t play in a Quad 1 game, and it was 0-2 in Quad 2 games, falling 91-74 to UAB and 92-75 to Winthrop. That might give you a little bit of pause when considering the Panthers for even a first-round upset over Wisconsin. However, it did have a nice, decisive 97-71 win over Furman at a neutral site, and the Paladins are another NCAA Tournament combatant. It also scored a 90-80 win over the University of Illinois Chicago, an NIT team.

We’ve seen plenty of No. 12 over No. 5 seed upsets over the years, and if the Panthers make it past the Badgers, it would set up a matchup between No. 4 Arkansas and No. 13 Hawaii, a game that could also potentially turn into an upset, as the Rainbow Warriors are playing with a lot of confidence. Of course, Arkansas just won the SEC Tournament, too, so there’s that. Anyway, for the chance to multiply your wager by four times, High Point is a good pick to reach the Round of 32. You could also consider High Point to make the Sweet 16.

Pick: High Point to Reach Round of 32 (+400)

No. 10 Missouri Tigers (West)

Reach Round of 32 (+110)
Reach Sweet 16 (+700)
Reach Elite Eight (+1900)
Reach Final Four (+10000)
Reach National Championship (+40000)
Win National Championship (+100000)

The basketball gods shined down favorably on the Missouri Tigers, and fans in South Florida have to be scratching their heads. Missouri is a No. 10 seed, which is perfectly fine, and they were placed into the West Region, but they play on Friday night at Enterprise Center in St. Louis, with a tip-off time of 10:10 p.m. ET.

The Tigers will have a huge crowd advantage in a No. 10 vs. No. 7 matchup, as Show-Me State fans from Columbia to Cape Girardeau cheer on the black and gold.

Missouri has certainly had its moment this season, posting a 5-7 record in Quad 1 games, including victories over Florida, Tennessee and Vanderbilt at home, as well as a road win at Kentucky. It scored a Quad 2 win over Auburn, too. Diving deeper, the Tigers beat the Play-In team, Howard, in a Quad 3 road game early in the season, too.

On the flip side, the Miami Hurricanes were 6-6 in Quad 1 games, so they’ll be no pushover. But, while Mizzou beat Florida, Miami lost by 14 points to the Gators, if we’re looking at common NCAA Tournament opponents. Miami was also bounced by double digits in games against NCAA Tournament teams BYU, Clemson and Virginia.

This is a dangerous spot for the Hurricanes in Round 1, and I fully expect Mizzou to feed off the crowd and grab the outright win. That’s plus-money just to get to the Round of 32, but the real fun starts in the second round, if No. 2 Purdue survives the up-tempo attack of No. 15 Queens. The Boilermakers have been known to falter against low seeds in March.

Purdue would, essentially, be playing a road game at Missouri in St. Louis. A trip to the Sweet 16 could help you 7X your wager. Dare we dream even further? Mizzou could face a beatable Gonzaga team or a team like BYU in the Sweet 16. The St. Louis advantage would be gone, but it’s very possible if things break right that this dangerous Tigers team could go all the way. It could also easily fall in the first round. They’re a No. 10 seed for a reason, as they’re anything but perfect, so tread lightly.

Picks: Missouri to Reach Round of 32 (+110) & Missouri to Reach Sweet 16 (+700)

No. 11 South Florida Bulls (East)

Reach Round of 32 (+195)
Reach Sweet 16 (+750)
Reach Elite Eight (+2500)
Reach Final Four (+12500)
Reach National Championship (+40000)
Win National Championship (+100000)

The South Florida Bulls enter the NCAA Tournament with 24 victories, while going 15-3 in the American Conference. It had a 45 NET Ranking, too, while posting a pair of Quad 1 wins at home over fellow NCAA Tournament team Utah State, as well as a win at Tulsa. It also lost by 12 on a neutral floor to VCU, a tournament team, and by 11 at Alabama in the non-conference portion of the schedule.

South Florida scored five Quad 2 wins in seven tries. It does have a little stink on it, though, as the Bulls somehow dropped three Quad 3 games in bad losses at UAB in overtime, home to Wichita State (also in overtime) and on the road against a subpar Temple team. Those three Quad 3 losses likely were the reason the American regular-season and Tournament champ was slotted as a No. 11 seed.

We saw the American champ go to the Final Four as recently as 2023 with Florida Atlantic University, so the Bulls are thinking big. They have Wes Enis, son of former Penn State football star and NFL player Curtis Enis. He averaged 16.8 PPG to lead the Bulls, while posting 3.6 rebounds per game and 2.5 assists per game this season. Izaiyah Nelson (15.7 PPG, 9.6 RPG) is a quiet storm. Joseph Pinion (14.2 PPG) and Josh Omojafo (11.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG) give this team a talented and deep scoring bunch.

Louisville, on the other hand, was without point guard Mikel Brown Jr. in the ACC Tournament after aggravating a back injury, and head coach Pat Kelsey was unable to give any update on whether Brown would be available to face South Florida. Without the super freshman, Louisville is ripe for the picking for the high-flying Bulls.

Looking ahead after that, Michigan State and head coach Tom Izzo are always dangerous this time of season, but I don’t trust the Spartans. Michigan State is erratic, and I don’t expect to see it go deep. I like South Florida as a surprise Sweet 16 team, although the parade stops against UConn in the Sweet 16.

Picks: South Florida to Reach Round of 32 (+195) & South Florida to Reach Sweet 16 (+750)

Joe Williams is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Joe, check out his archive and follow him @winwithjoe.