NCAA Tournament Upset Alert: Teams to Fade (Midwest Region)

The 2026 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region has two Round 1 games scheduled for Thursday, with six more games set for Friday. These are the teams in the Midwest Region that we’re fading as the Field of 64 gets whittled down to 32 teams.

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Midwest Region NCAA Tournament Teams To Fade

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit

Hofstra Pride (+580) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (-880)

On Friday, the Pride (24-10) meet the Crimson Tide (23-9) at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida at 3:15 p.m. ET on truTV.

No. 13 seed Hofstra caught a little bit of a break this week, as Alabama G Aden Holloway was arrested for possession of marijuana earlier this week, and he will not play in Tampa. He is the team’s second-leading scorer with 16.8 points per game (PPG), while averaging 3.8 assists (APG) and 2.8 rebounds (RPG) per game. That’s a giant loss for the Crimson Tide, but they still have the dynamic Labaron Philon (21.7 PPG, 4.7 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1.1 SPG), as well as the erratic G Latrell Wrightsell (12.8 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.0 APG).

It will be interesting to see how coach Nate Oats handles the absence of Holloway. The sportsbooks handled the news with Alabama dropping from an open of 14.5-point favorites to 11.5-point favorites at the time of publishing. Still, Hofstra catching double digits remains a decent value.

Alabama lost outright as a similar 11.5-point favorite against Ole Miss, 80-79, in its only SEC Tournament game, and the Crimson Tide is just 3-5 ATS across the past eight games, and 5-7 ATS in the previous 12 outings, and that was with Holloway. The Tide is just 3-5 ATS in the past eight games as a double-digit favorite, too. In addition, as a favorite in games against teams in the current NCAA Tournament field, Alabama was just 2-9 ATS in 11 games this season.

Hofstra went 2-1 ATS in three games in the CAA Tournament, including a 75-69 win over Monmouth in the final as a 4.5-point favorite. As an underdog, it is 3-2 SU in their past five tries, including wins over power conference teams Pitt and Syracuse. The Pride was 6-2 ATS in eight games as an underdog, too, including 2-0 ATS in two tries against teams in the current NCAA Tournament field.

Pick: Hofstra +11.5 (-105)

Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (+420) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (-580)

Well, well, well. Look who has itself that elusive first Quad 1 (Q1) win. Miami (Ohio) went 31-0 in the regular season, but it was on pins and needles heading into Selection Sunday after wetting the bed in the first round of the Mid-American Conference (MAC) Tournament against a bad UMass team. The Redhawks heard their name called, eventually, but they were forced to play in the First Four on Wednesday night.

Miami was playing at UD Arena in Dayton, just an hour from campus, and it faced another SMU team with plenty of warts, and one missing its best players. Two-time ACC All-Defensive Team honoree B.J. Edwards missed the game due to an ankle injury, and just like that, his college career is over.

Miami was bombs away from behind the arc, rolling up an 89-79 win over SMU in front of a raucous crowd that felt like it was in Oxford, not Dayton. Eian Elmer posted 23 points, and he hit 6-of-9 from behind the arc, while Brant Byers was good for 19 points with four triples. In all, Miami attempted 41 3-pointer attempts, hitting 39 percent.

Will Miami be able to operate with impunity from the perimeter against the SEC’s Volunteers? It’s unlikely. The Vols managed to limit teams to just 30.8 percent from downtown, ranking 35th in the nation. However, if Miami is able to get its sea legs against Tennessee, the Vols don’t have the shooting to keep up. It was so-so offensively with 80.3 PPG, but it was terrible on threes, hitting just 33.8 percent, ranking 194th in the nation. And, if it is a close game, which we certainly hope, the Vols are hitting just 69.4 percent (281st), one of the worst marks among NCAA Tournament teams.

The Volunteers have dropped four of the past six games, and they’re just 2-4 ATS in that span, too. Tennessee is 7-7 ATS in 14 games as a double-digit favorite this season, and it was just 3-3 ATS in six neutral-site games.

Miami will lose the home-crowd advantage of Dayton, but don’t be surprised to see a lot of red in Tampa. There is a huge Midwest presence on the Gulf Coast of Florida. And, if Miami starts to build momentum, everybody loves an underdog, and the Redhawks could feed off of that energy. This is a team that, ultimately, has lost just once this season. Tennessee won’t send Miami off easily.

Pick: Miami (Ohio) +11.5 (-110)

More NCAA Tournament Picks

#1 Duke vs. #16 Siena
#8 Ohio State vs. #9 TCU
#5 St. John’s vs. #12 Northern Iowa
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Cal Baptist
#6 Louisville vs. #11 South Florida
#3 Michigan State vs. #14 North Dakota State
#7 UCLA vs. #10 UCF
#2 UConn vs. #15 Furman

#1 Arizona vs. #16 LIU
#8 Villanova vs. #9 Utah State
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 High Point
#4 Arkansas vs. #13 Hawai’i
#11 Texas vs. North Carolina State
#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Kennesaw State
#7 Miami (FL) vs. #10 Missouri
#2 Purdue vs. #15 Queens

#16 UMBC vs. Howard
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Saint Louis
#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Hofstra
#11 Miami OH vs. SMU
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Wright State
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Santa Clara
#2 Iowa State vs. #15 Tennessee State

#16 Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh
#8 Clemson vs. #9 Iowa
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese
#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy
#6 North Carolina vs. #11 VCU
#3 Illinois vs. #14 Penn
#7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Texas A&M
#2 Houston vs. #15 Idaho

Joe Williams is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Joe, check out his archive and follow him @winwithjoe.