After being able to catch our breath from the first weekend of March Madness, we're back for the Sweet 16. It's been a more chalky tournament so far, but we've still been treated to some excellent matchups. Now, we're down to choose from four games today. We did quite well last time, so I hope you tailed. If you don't know, PrizePicks are essentially player props but available in more states with a simple "More/Less" option that allows you to compound players together for up to a 25X payout. It's a great way to get into the action, and I'm here to provide you with the best plays. Let's get to it.
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NCAAB Tournament Sweet 16 PrizePicks Predictions (Thursday)
Matas Vokietaitis Less Than 15.5 points
It feels like a bit of a risk here to go against big man Matas Vokietaitis and his seven-foot frame after dropping 23 and 17 points in the first two games, but Purdue matches up well against the Longhorn sophomore. Purdue has one of the best defensive free throw attempt rates against them, keeping opponents off the charity stripe at the seventh-best clip. They also limit second chance looks, ranking 30th in defensive rebound percentage. This is where Vokietaitis does a lot of his work. The big man ranks third in free throw rate in the entire country. He's attempted 275 free throws this year. The Texas big man won't get nearly as many second-chance looks, and Purdue's post-up defense ranks 34th per ShotQuality, so when Vokietaitis does get his looks, they'll still be contested. This also comes down to pace here, where the number of opportunities will be severely limited with the Boilermakers’ 324th-ranked pace of play.
Jaden Bradley More Than 15.5 points
Against Utah State, Bradley went just 6-16 from the field and 5-12 from inside the arc. He still managed 18 points. In a game that's totaled at 166.5 points, I'm shocked at how low this number sits. Despite Bradley averaging just over 13 points a game this year, I expect sparks to fly here against Arkansas. The Razorbacks are the 17th fastest-paced team in the league this year and rank 234th and 280th in transition defense and defense against rim attacks, respectively, per ShotQuality.
That's where Jaden Bradley does a lot of his damage. Over 25 percent of Bradley's attempts come on the rim attack, ranking in the 75th highest percentile. Against top-100 opponents, the attempt rates only increase. At the rim, Arkansas’ defense ranks 113th in D-I, and they haven't exactly seen an opponent like Arizona. This is a pace-up game where Bradley will get additional opportunities where he is best against an opponent who will struggle to stop him. Combine that with a couple of threes and some free throws, and this should be a smash spot for Jaden Bradley.
Kingston Flemings More Than 16.5 points
Coming into this game, I expected to be more in on the under, but with the style clash, we may be in line for an interesting battle. Illinois forces turnovers at the lowest rate in the league; they also rarely foul, but getting to the charity stripe is not Houston's MO. Per Haslametrics, Houston is expected to take 35 percent of their shots from mid-range, 12 percent above D-1 average.
This is where Kingston Fleming comes in. The star Houston guard and likely top 10 pick in the upcoming NBA draft shoots midrange attempts at a top-100 clip nationally. With Illinois' ability to keep Houston off the rim and not force turnovers, Houston will get shot attempt after shot attempt. No Houston player has a higher usage rate than Flemings, and with the slight pace up spot and the importance of the game, I imagine they'll lean more on their star guard tonight.
