Nebraska vs. Troy: NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview

The 2026 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first round 2026 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our NCAA Tournament predictions and preview for Nebraska vs. Troy.

2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview: Nebraska vs. Troy

Here are the odds for this opening-round matchup of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Let’s dive into our preview and predictions for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

Nebraska 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

The 2025-26 Cornhuskers are the best team Fred Hoiberg has ever put on the floor in Lincoln, arguably the best in school history. Nebraska started 20-0, entered the AP Top 10 for the first time since 1966, and is 26-6 with a top-10 KenPom defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 40.0% from the field.

Pryce Sandfort is as good a junior forward as there is from outside, averaging nearly 18 points per game with three 30-point performances, including a 32-point effort in a win over Illinois. Rienk Mast is the anchor of the frontcourt, capable of finding the open man while also defending the rim. Freshman forward Braden Frager has been solid off the bench, averaging over 11 points a game. Sam Hoiberg, the coach’s son, is the definition of scrappy, averaging over five boards a game despite his 6-0 frame. This whole team could be described as scrappy, with a pack-line defense that has the fifth-best two-point proximity distance against. Opponents get 39 percent of points from beyond the arc, seventh-most in the nation, but the Cornhuskers still hold opponents under 30% from deep.

The rebounding vulnerability is real. Michigan, Illinois and Purdue all physically dominated Nebraska on the glass this season, with Purdue securing a 54-37 rebounding edge at Mackey Arena and a 37-29 edge in the Big 10 quarterfinals. The Huskers rank outside the top 300 in offensive boards and free throw rate, leading to just a 70th-rated field goal attempt rate. Their lower shot volume among top-seeded teams is concerning for the tournament. Nebraska is also vulnerable to teams who can sling it from deep, because that's the type of shot they allow. Their 319th non-conference strength of schedule isn't the best to prepare them for tournament play, and they limp into March, ranking 34th since Feb. 1 with a 134th-ranked offense. It's also worth noting that Nebraska is 0-for-8 all time in the NCAA Tournament.

Still, Nebraska is good enough to win games in March. They'll be favored to break their tournament losing streak and will likely be favored to make it to the second weekend. Their ceiling is limited by their offense but their defense won't be easy to face for any opponent that draws the Cornhuskers.

Troy 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Scott Cross is back in the tournament for the second straight year with a team that may actually be more well-rounded than last year’s. Thomas Dowd is the Troy centerpiece and one of the more complete players in the field as a double-double machine who rebounds on both ends, hits threes, and defends well. Troy’s formula is straightforward: Crash the offensive glass, limit turnovers, and defend hard on the perimeter. The Trojans’ paper-tiger factor is favorable, ranking 37th in their three games against top-100 opponents this year. Troy beat San Diego State in double-OT, beat Akron by 10, and took USC to triple-OT, losing by one point.

Troy required more late-game heroics than any other team in the country just to get here, which raises real questions about the margin for error. The shot suppression is not good, and the overall defensive profile won’t scare a top-25 team. The path to an upset runs through Dowd playing 40 minutes, the offensive rebounding making a difference on a cold shooting night, and getting a little lucky. Troy’s shot volume, ability to play up to their opponent, and experience makes this an interesting upset candidate.

More NCAA Tournament Predictions & Previews

#1 Duke vs. #16 Siena
#8 Ohio State vs. #9 TCU
#5 St. John’s vs. #12 Northern Iowa
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Cal Baptist
#6 Louisville vs. #11 South Florida
#3 Michigan State vs. #14 North Dakota State
#7 UCLA vs. #10 UCF
#2 UConn vs. #15 Furman

#1 Arizona vs. #16 LIU
#8 Villanova vs. #9 Utah State
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 High Point
#4 Arkansas vs. #13 Hawai’i
#11 Texas vs. North Carolina State
#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Kennesaw State
#7 Miami (FL) vs. #10 Missouri
#2 Purdue vs. #15 Queens

#16 UMBC vs. Howard
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Saint Louis
#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Hofstra
#11 Miami OH vs. SMU
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Wright State
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Santa Clara
#2 Iowa State vs. #15 Tennessee State

#16 Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh
#8 Clemson vs. #9 Iowa
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese
#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy
#6 North Carolina vs. #11 VCU
#3 Illinois vs. #14 Penn
#7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Texas A&M
#2 Houston vs. #15 Idaho

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