A pair of AFC East foes will go at it Sunday night in Buffalo for the third time in just over a month, as the Patriots visit the Bills for a primetime Wild Card showdown. Splitting the regular-season series, the Bills now get the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd on what should be a blisteringly cold Buffalo night.
Let’s take a closer look.
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- Opening Line: Bills -4.5, O/U 43.5
- Current Line: Bills -4.5, O/U 44
- Last meeting: December 26, 2021, Bills 33, Patriots 21
It was a record-setting game when the Patriots went to Buffalo just over a month ago, albeit for an odd reason. In the 14-10 win, the Patriots attempted just three passes (19 yards) and relied on a heavy dose of Damien Harris and a stout defensive effort to pull off the victory.
While they’ll likely be unable to pull off such a feat in this one, the weather conditions (single digits) point to what should be a rushing-heavy game from both teams.
For the home Bills, a consecutive AFC East title was clinched just a few weeks ago, as the task now turns to reach their second straight AFC Championship game appearance. They should be confident to take the first step in this one, having dismantled New England the day after Christmas (33-21), as Josh Allen threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns.
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- Over is 4-0 in Patriots L4 following a loss
- Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in L4 games
- Bills 6-1-1 in L8 vs. AFC East
While I lean the Bills in this one, I can’t bring myself to bet against the greatest playoff strategy coach in NFL history in Bill Belichick. Instead, I’m looking at the under on a total that, to my surprise, has actually moved up since opening at 43.5 across the board.
With two offenses with top 10 rushing attacks and conditions pointing toward them being the best course of action, I like for the clock to be active throughout this one and for the total to stay well below the posted 44.
Pick: Under 44
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