NFL Betting: 10 Non-Quarterbacks Who Most Impact the Spread (2022)

It's no secret that QBs have the largest impact when it comes to point spreads in the NFL, but what about other positions and players? Many factors come into play when assessing a player's value toward the spread. Still, it boils down to a combination of performance on the field, importance to their team's scheme, and the drop-off in production at the replacement level. This article will break down the 10 non-QBs who mean the most to the point spread in the 2022 NFL season.

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10. Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN) | 0.5-1 points

Jefferson wasted no time bursting onto the scene in 2020, catching 88 balls for 1,400 yards (good for the third-highest mark of all time for a rookie). He significantly upped his production in 2021, recording the second-most receiving yards in the NFL (1,616) on 108 receptions (4^th highest in 2021). Jefferson earned his stats by commanding an insane 45% target share on balls thrown to Vikings WRs (29% target share in the entire offense), even with the presence of Adam Theilen and the emerging KJ Osborn.

The change in head coach from the defensive-oriented Mike Zimmer to the former Rams OC Kevin O'Connell has generated a ton of buzz about the potential of the 2022 Vikings offense, indicating that Jefferson has potentially not yet reached his ceiling. Other comparable receivers over the past half-decade (Tyreek Hill, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins) have tended to affect the spread around 0.5-1 points when they missed time, and Jefferson should be valued as having a similar impact.

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10. Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN) | 0.5-1 points

9. Davante Adams (WR – LV) | 0.5-1 points

Adams has been one of the most impactful non-QBs toward the spread over the past few seasons, but the uncertainty that comes with joining a new team pushes him a little farther down this list. Since 2018, Adams has ranked in the top 3 in targets per game and top 5 in yards per game. He should be an outstanding fit for his former college QB Derek Carr and the Raiders, who have desperately been missing a consistent outside receiving threat to pair with Renfrow.

The Raiders had one of the worst rushing attacks in the league in 2021 (bottom 5 in YPG), so it will be up to Adams and the passing attack to put up points and keep pace in the high-scoring AFC West. Adams will be worth slightly less to the spread in Las Vegas than he was in Green Bay, where his absence impacted the spread up to 1.5 points. His impact on the number should be between 0.5-1 point in 2022.

8. Trent Williams (OL – SF) | 0.5-1 points

Williams enters 2022 looking to build upon his best season as a pro. Though he has been selected to the last nine Pro Bowls, Williams received his only 1^st Team All-Pro selection in 2021. Williams is PFF's highest-graded offensive lineman, and he is absolutely essential to the outside zone running scheme employed by the run-heavy 49ers offense (most rushing attempts in the NFL in 2021). Not only is he arguably the most elite run-blocking lineman in today's game, but he also anchors the blind side of the 49ers’ pass protection.

Proficiency in offensive line play can be tough to quantify, but Williams' role and importance in the San Francisco offense is unmatched by any other lineman in the NFL. Williams missed Week 7 in 2021, where the 49ers dipped from favorites of -5 to -3.5, despite the return of Jimmy Garoppolo from injury. This line movement insinuates that Trent Williams is worth between 0.5-1 point to the spread in 2022.

7. Mark Andrews (TE – BAL) | 0.5-1 points

Coming in as the reigning #1 fantasy TE in 2021, there is no doubt that Mark Andrews is one of the most important players for his team in 2022. Andrews logged the most targets of any TE in the league last year (153), with eight games of at least double-digit targets. He was responsible for 26% of all targets to Baltimore's pass catchers and 89% of targets to their TEs. The Ravens are losing their most targeted WR from 2021 (Marquise Brown - 146 targets), leaving a massive void to be filled in the offense.

These vacated targets are likely to result in more opportunities for Andrews, as the Ravens’ WR core is mostly unproven, and their RBs were targeted at the second-lowest rate in the NFL in 2021 (14%). The most accurate equivalent to the value that Andrews possesses is Travis Kelce, who missed a game due to COVID protocols in 2021. Kelce's absence resulted in a drop in the spread of 0.5-1 points depending on the sportsbook, and Andrews should have a very similar value as the most important member of the Ravens passing attack in 2022.

6. TJ Watt (DE – PIT) | 1-1.5 points

Watt enters the 2022 season as the reigning DPOY, an award in which he has placed within the top 3 for the past three seasons. Watt has led the league in sacks and TFL for two consecutive years, tying Michael Strahan's all-time record of 22.5 sacks in 2021 despite missing 2 games and leaving 3 prematurely due to injury. The Steelers posted an 0-4-1 record in those games, highlighting his importance to the team's performance. Watt pressured opposing QBs at an incredible rate of 16%, forcing five fumbles and recovering three during the regular season (not to mention a TD against the Chiefs in the playoffs). He has recorded 13+ sacks in 4 consecutive seasons, a feat that has only been accomplished by Hall of Famer Reggie White.

TJ Watt missed the Steelers-Chargers Week 11 matchup in 2021, where the point spread ballooned from Chargers -3.5 to Chargers -6/6.5. Though Minkah Fitzpatrick also missed the game, it's reasonable to assume that the loss of the eventual DPOY in Watt accounted for a majority of the line movement. Watt should be worth between 1-1.5 points to the Steelers in 2022.

5. Travis Kelce (TE – KC) | 1-1.5 points

Perennially regarded as one of the most elite pass-catching TEs in the NFL, Kelce will only see his importance rise in 2022 with the loss of Tyreek Hill. Kelce was the second-most targeted TE in the league (134) in 2021, receiving 21% of the target share in the KC offense. It's logical to think that this number will significantly increase, as 25% of the offensive targets from 2021 are vacated with the loss of Hill. Kelce is virtually the only TE option in KC, earning 85% of the targets to all TEs in the offense.

The additions of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marques Valdez-Scantling, and the rookie Skyy Moore creates a massive unknown for the Chiefs’ passing attack, leaving Kelce as the only familiar receiving target for Patrick Mahomes in 2022. As previously mentioned, Kelce's absence due to COVID protocols caused the 2021 Chiefs-Steelers Week 16 spread to dip about 1 point from the opening line to the closing line, depending on the book. I give Kelce a bump in value compared to this number because his importance to the Chiefs offense increases in 2022, ultimately landing at 1-1.5 points of value to the spread. Additionally, FantasyPros projects Kelce to be the highest-scoring fantasy TE this year.

4. Derrick Henry (RB – TEN) | 1-1.5 points

It would be tough to argue that any player in the NFL means more to their offense than Derrick Henry does to the Titans. Before his injury in Week 8 of 2021, Henry averaged a league-high 27 carries and 117 yards per game, both of which outpaced Jonathan Taylor by a wide margin. In his previous two seasons in which he was fully healthy, Henry led all running backs in rushes per game (20+ RPG), yards per game (100+ YPG), and rushing touchdowns (16+ TDs). The departure of D'Onta Foreman leaves Dontrell Hilliard and rookie Hassan Haskins to spell Henry, both of whom have never come close to commanding a full workload at the position. The loss of AJ Brown only magnifies Henry's importance, leaving no doubt that the Titans will continue to lean on him heavily to drive their offense in 2022.

Depending on the sportsbook, the Titans-Rams spread in Week 9 of 2021 swung between 2-3 points after it was announced that Henry would miss the remainder of the season. Because questions linger regarding his return from injury and the Titans’ offense projects to take a step down, he should be valued slightly less than last year, being worth 1-1.5 points to the spread entering 2022.

3. Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR) | 1-1.5 points

Entering 2022 as the reigning OPOY, Kupp is coming off one of the most dominant seasons by a WR that we have ever seen. Kupp was targeted a league-high 191 times, recording 1,947 yards on 145 catches (both of which are the second-highest marks in NFL history). Stafford and Kupp established quite the rapport last year, as Kupp received 44% of the targets to all Rams WRs. Kupp's usage was amplified in the red zone, posting 27 receptions on 38 targets for 13 TDs, all of which were tops in the NFL.

Kupp is pivotal to the Rams’ offense no matter who is occupying the WR2 role (11.4 targets per game with Robert Woods, 11 targets per game with Odell Beckham, Jr.), so it's unlikely that his usage will diminish with the addition of Allen Robinson. When analyzing the market's reaction when Davante Adams missed time over the past few seasons, the spread fluctuated between 0.5 and 1.5 points. Kupp's performance from last season was at least on par with that of Adams from previous seasons, so he should be valued between 1-1.5 points to the spread in 2022.

2. Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) | 1.5-2 points

Coming off a breakout 2021 campaign, Taylor comes in as the most-valued RB in terms of the spread in 2022. Taylor is vitally important to the Colts’ offense, logging the third-most snaps of any RB and remaining on the field for no less than 68% of the team's snaps from Week 7 until the end of the season. He commanded a ridiculous 89 touches inside the RedZone (Austin Ekeler ranked second at 48), converting those opportunities into 14 touchdowns. Taylor is also a threat to take it to the house from anywhere on the field, scoring three touchdowns of 60+ yards in 2021.

The play-action passing game was the foundation for Matt Ryan's best years in Atlanta, which amplifies Taylor's importance to the Colts’ offense in 2022. Though Nyheim Hines is a capable pass-catching RB, he does not hold a candle to the talent and impact of Taylor. As a younger, more explosive RB with less injury history than Derrick Henry, Taylor is closer to the 2 points of value to the point spread that was evident after Henry's injury in 2021.

1. Aaron Donald (DT – LAR) | 1.5-2 points

Donald has been an absolute force since joining the NFL in 2014, winning the DROY in his inaugural season and being crowned the DPOY three times since then. Donald has never missed the Pro Bowl and has never finished outside of the top 5 in DPOY voting. He has 11 sacks or more in each of the previous 5 seasons (led the league with 20.5 in 2018) and has never recorded fewer than 8 sacks in a year. His 25 and 20 TFL in 2018 and 2019 were good for tops in the league, and he has forced 4+ fumbles in all but one of the previous 5 seasons. Donald has also been an ironman for the Rams, not having missed a game since 2017. He will almost certainly be in the running for DPOY in 2022, continuing to be one of the most dominant and impactful players in the NFL.

The most comparable player to Donald in terms of impacting the spread on the defensive side of the ball in recent memory would be JJ Watt. In 2016, Watt was coming off back-to-back DPOY-winning seasons before injuring his back and being forced to miss the final 13 games of the season. Lookahead lines for the following week's game were set around Houston -6, but the closing spread had dipped to around Houston -4 after it was apparent that Watt would be unable to go. This is the kind of company that Donald finds himself in, and he is the most impactful player towards the spread at 1.5-2 points of value entering 2022.

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