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NFL Betting Line Movement Analysis for Week 12 (2021)

by November 27, 2021
New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans Odds & Game Pick (2021)

While the majority of Week 11 games went as expected, there were once again a few massive NFL betting upsets on the card. The two most notable outright underdogs to win were the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans. Both teams were catching more than a touchdown ahead of their respective games. The Arizona Cardinals also gave numerous bettors fits as they defied closing line value yet again in an upset win on the road. That result was a rare occurrence in which analyzing NFL betting line moves would have been to the detriment of the player. Given that chaos and upsets have become a weekly occurrence, there will undoubtedly be more surprising results in Week 12.

The following article highlights some of the most significant and noteworthy NFL line moves and breaks down what might be behind each shift. As always, a table containing both the opening and current betting odds for each game on the Week 12 slate is included at the end of this column. 

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Significant NFL Week 12 Line Moves | Point Spreads

Titans at Patriots (NE from -2.5 to -7)
The Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots both saw drastic shifts in their standing as far as the NFL betting public is concerned last week. While the Pats bludgeoned the Atlanta Falcons in front of a national viewing audience on Thursday Night Football, the Titans saw their impressive winning streak snapped with a stunning home loss to the Houston Texans. It’s no secret that the Patriots grade out better than Tennessee in just about every noteworthy statistical category. With home field on their side, more healthy players and a boatload of momentum, New England has shot up to a full touchdown favorite ahead of this key AFC showdown. 

The Titans may have been able to overcome the loss of Derrick Henry initially. Being without your offensive identity against Bill Belichick’s nasty defense is a recipe for disaster. The Titans also may be without top wideout A.J. Brown, who has yet to practice after suffering a chest injury last week. 

Browns at Ravens (BAL from -5.5 to -3.5)
This week’s Sunday Night Football matchup carries massive implications in the AFC North picture. Both the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens managed to squeak out close wins in low-scoring games against inferior competition last week. The Ravens notably did so without the services of quarterback Lamar Jackson who was held out with an illness. On the other side, Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield is visibly playing through an injury on a weekly basis. 

It is somewhat surprising to see such a clear NFL betting line move in the Browns’ direction. While Cleveland’s offense is centered around the run game, the Ravens’ defense has been much better at stopping the run this season than the pass. Aside from the fact that divisional rivalries always tend to be competitive, this is one move that raises some eyebrows.

Seahawks at Washington (SEA from -3.5 to +1)
After letting bettors down in a big way last week, the Seattle Seahawks are now on the wrong end of the line move ahead of their Monday night battle with the Washington Football Team. The Seahawks’ offense has looked lifeless since Russell Wilson returned to the lineup. There are also growing speculations that the locker room chemistry between quarterback and team is falling apart. While Washington is far from a great outfit in their own right, back-to-back wins in their last two games have at least inspired some level of confidence. The same cannot be said for Seattle. The fact that this line opened north of the key number 3 initially and has moved all the way through a pick’em makes it very significant.

Significant NFL Week 12 Line Moves | Totals

Jets at Texans (46.5 down to 44.5)
The New York Jets look like a dead team walking coming into a very sad matchup against the Houston Texans. Although both teams have just two wins on the season, the Texans do enter with some momentum following their upset last week. Houston has largely been a completely different team with Tyrod Taylor under center this season. Given how bad the Jets’ defense has been, this NFL betting line move is probably more a play on the Texans’ defense slowing down New York than it is against the offense. Rookie QB Zach Wilson will be playing his first game back from injury on Sunday which could lend itself to some rust. Bottom line: two bad teams going head-to-head more often than not results in less scoring.

Rams at Packers (50.5 down to 47)
Despite the terrific quarterbacks leading the offenses for both the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers, the NFL betting total for this highly-anticipated NFC showdown has plummeted. An opening number of 50.5 has come all the way down to an even 47 ahead of Sunday afternoon’s contest. While it is expected to be cold at Lambeau Field, neither rain nor snow is in the current forecast for Sunday evening. Bettors can point to a couple of key aspects from each team as likely reasons behind this line move.

First and foremost, the Packers’ defense has been playing much better this season than in years prior. Green Bay enters Week 12 giving up just 19.5 points per game. Prior to last week’s loss at Minnesota, the Pack had held six consecutive opponents to 22 points or less. Even without top cover corner Jaire Alexander, Green Bay has been playing stellar defense.

On the Rams side, the loss of wideout Robert Woods is likely to cause some offensive turmoil. Given that the Rams make limited lineup adjustments offensively, integrating new receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and others into expanded roles could be challenging. After failing to crack 20 points in each of their last two games prior to the bye, it is clear that sharp bettors are bearish on L.A.’s offense moving forward until proven wrong.

Week 12 NFL Betting Line Moves Table

Refer to the table below for a side-by-side comparison of the opening and current Las Vegas consensus lines for all Week 12 NFL games including those discussed above.

Note: All current odds reflect lines at 10 a.m. EDT on Friday, November 26th. The three Thanksgiving Day games are not included.

Matchup Opening Lines Current Vegas Consensus
Titans
Patriots
46.5
-2.5
43.5
-7
Jets
Texans
46.5
-3
44.5
-2.5
Eagles
Giants
-3
46
-4
45.5
Buccaneers
Colts
-3
52
-3
52.5
Falcons
Jaguars
PICK
PICK
-2
46
Panthers
Dolphins
-1
43.5
-2
42
Steelers
Bengals
46.5
-4
45
-3.5
Chargers
Broncos
-2.5
48
-2.5
47.5
Vikings
49ers
48
-2.5
48.5
-3
Rams
Packers
50.5
-1.5
-1.5
47
Browns
Ravens
48
-5.5
47
-3.5
Seahawks
Washington
-3.5
48
46.5
-1

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.

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