NFL Betting Primer: Cowboys vs. Giants Picks (Sunday Night Football))

You know the jingle. I’VE BEEN WAITING ALL DAY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

But seriously, football is back in full action, and there’s truly no better time to be alive.

And we end the Week 1 Sunday slate on a high note with NFC East rivals going head-to-head.

New York is looking to upset the road-favored Dallas Cowboys in John Harbaugh’s Big Blue debut. But Dak Prescott and the ‘Boys OWN the Giants.

The Cowboys have won each of their last nine games against the Giants when playing their full allotment of starters; they lost last year after benching guys in Week 18 (6-4 ATS across that span).

Big D’s defense was HORRIBLE last season, but they have made significant upgrades to that side of the ball.

And then there’s WR Malik Nabers. Will he play? Apparently, only he knows the answer. Nightmare fuel for Fantasy football managers.

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NFL Week 1 Sunday Night Football Betting Primer

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Dallas -3, Under 48.5

Trends

The Cowboys have won 10 straight as favorites in the division (besides last year's Week 18 matchup).
Dallas has covered the spread in each of their last 7 road openers in the NFC East
Dak Prescott is 10-6 ATS as a road favorite within the division (BetMGM).
Dak Prescott is 14-3 SU versus the Giants.
Nine of the Giants’ last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
Eleven of the Cowboys’ last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line
The Giants have won three of their last seven home games outright as underdogs (5-4 ATS at home this season).
Since 2022, the Giants are 15-13-1 as home underdogs. Big Blue at home: 18-15-1 ATS since 2022.
Each of the Giants’ last 12 home openers have gone UNDER the total points line.

Injuries

Giants

WR Malik Nabers (NYG) - knee; full participation all week. Nabers has publicly hedged on his own status (“I can’t put my career at risk”), but the Giants have not given him a game-status designation.

Overall

This game stood out to me like a sore thumb when I first went through the Week 1 betting lines back in May. I felt strongly that Dallas was not favored by NEARLY enough points.

Their roster is vastly superior to the Giants on both sides of the ball.

The Giants had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL last season, and that was with DT Dexter Lawrence. We shall see how veterans DJ Reader and Shelby Harris stack up in stopping the run along with linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and rookie first-rounder Avrell Reese.

In Javonte Williams’ lone action versus New York in 2025, he totaled 18 carries for 97 yards and 1 TD. The loss of Tyler Smith at guard is tough, but Dallas has some depth on the interior offensive line. Give me those anytime TD bets (and the first-half ones as well for a better number).

Meanwhile, Nabers – the Giants’ best player and No. 1 WR – might not even be 100% mentally or physically to play.

Keep this in mind…

This Week 18 line was Dallas -5.5 when the Cowboys’ defense was much worse, and we didn't even know if Prescott was playing at 100%.

Jaxson Dart takes over as the full-time starter after an eye-opening rookie stretch - he led all rookies in total touchdowns (24) last season and specifically lit Dallas up in their second meeting (again, backups playing).

As a rookie, the dual-threat QB finished 3rd in fantasy points per dropback (0.60). Tied with Drake Maye. 20.7 PPG (40.5 rushing yards per game).

But Matt Nagy entering as the 2026 Giants’ new OC does not enthrall me with confidence – nor does a potential four-man RBBC featuring Cam Skattebo, Najee Harris (both coming off season-ending injuries), Tyrone Tracy, and Devin Singletary.

Not to mention, the Giants offensive staff also features retread coaches like Greg Roman and Brian Callahan. Woof.

Dart is on record this offseason saying, "It sounds like we're not going to be throwing the ball a lot. We're going to keep giving it to Cam Skattebo until they can stop it."

Obviously, what scares me most about the optics of this matchup is that the Giants are the only home divisional underdog on the Week 1 slate. Luckily, Prescott has bucked this trend as an in-division road favorite.

And I am very encouraged by the improvements across the Dallas defense.

They fired DC Matt Eberflus after one season on the job following a historically bad defensive year, and replaced him with Christian Parker - by most accounts, a scheme and approach that’s the opposite of what Eberflus ran. That defense is also still working through life without Micah Parsons, who was dealt to Green Bay in the 2025 blockbuster that brought back two first-round picks and DT Kenny Clark.

Dee Winters, Otito Ogbonnia, Rashan Gary, Malachi Lawrence, Von Miller, Donovan Ezeiruaku, Quinnen Williams, Jalen Thompson, Cobie Durant and rookie DB Caleb Downs give the defense a major glow-up compared to last year’s group that bled points all season.

Dallas led the NFL in pressure rate last season but finished just second-worst in interceptions and below average in total sacks. Positive regression is coming for their 2026 sack totals.

The Giants have so many question marks on offense that should be a cause for some hesitation against a revamped Dallas defense. A lot of new moving pieces that might take some time to gel. And the weakest part of Dallas’ defense is their cornerbacks, but New York doesn’t necessarily possess the WR bodies to take full advantage of the matchup.

Meanwhile, there should be no hesitation about the well-oiled Cowboys offense, which is essentially just running it back from 2025.

All in all, I still like Dallas ATS and the total going under 48.5 points. That total reads to me like the Dallas defense is still trash, and that New York didn’t invest resources into their defense this offseason. They have talent specifically in their front 7 and pass rush.

As for the player props.

Jake Ferguson - Under 3.5 Receptions. Across the 9 games last year with a fully healthy Cowboys WR trio, Ferguson averaged under 3.5 catches a game. Same cast is back for Week 1 - expect the same script.

The Giants also ranked 8th-stingiest against TEs (under 5 catches per game) in 2025. The Giants’ new DC, Dennard Wilson, coached the Titans from 2024-2025, when his units ranked from league average to above average in catches allowed to opposing tight ends.

Nobody knows how healthy Nabers is or how much he’ll play (if at all on Sunday night). Therefore, we should attack the OVERs on some of his Giants teammates.

Keep in mind New York only has 4 WRs on the active roster: Nabers, Darnell Mooney, Odell Beckham Jr., and rookie Malachi Fields. Mooney should be the starter in the slot, and is familiar with Nagy’s offense from their time spent in Chicago. 1.5 receptions seems like a very low bar to pass. Went over in 8/9 games with the Falcons last season, when he was mostly playing hurt.

A limited Nabers could mean a boosted role for tight end Isaiah Likely. In 9 games without Mark Andrews in Baltimore, Likely averaged over 50 receiving yards per game. The Mooney and Likely props are BOTH 5-star bets on the prop bet cheat sheet this week.

Ryan Flournoy had a great offseason by all reports and just signed a new extension after solidifying himself as the No. 3 for the Cowboys. He’s expected to have a much larger role in the offense (from the slot). The Giants’ starting slot CB, Dru Phillips, also allowed the third-most yards from the slot last season. Even if the other two WRs and Ferguson are healthy, “Flo” went over 24.5 receiving yards in 4/5 games. I like his 1st TD longshots at north of 23-1.

But if you want to look for more of a “favorite” among the 1st TD scorers…it’s going to be CeeDee Lamb. Listed at 9-1 on some books, he is coming off a season of very poor TD luck with plenty of drops. However, he seems to always step up in prime time. After a lackluster, injury-plagued season, we should see a very motivated Lamb play on Sunday Night Football.