NFL Betting Primer: Picks & Predictions (Week 11)

The official plays are up to 28-28-1 so far through ten weeks. We are back down to .500…after a tough Week 10. The undertaker got COOKED. Two fumble-sixes by the Arizona Cardinals buried that under…and Matthew Stafford is still tossing TDs from a clean pocket versus an injury-riddled 49ers unit. Nevertheless…we will do our best to bounce back.

As for overarching Week 10 results (per Joe Williams on BettingPros)

Favorites only went 10-4 SU (7-6-1 ATS)
Road teams smashed for the second straight week

Maybe we see some more home-field advantages show up in Week 11…although road warriors such as the Buccaneers, Seahawks, and 49ers will try to continue the trend.

Since 2023, the Steelers have been 60% ATS as a home favorite (also great as an underdog). The Browns boast the best record ATS at home (13-7, 65%). AFC North teams prevail at home.

Let’s break down those divisional games and the rest of the Week 11 slate that is filled with MUST-WATCH matchups.

Top-6 Best Bets:

Buccaneers +5.5
NYG-GB over 42.5
KC-DEN under 44.5
LAC-JAX under 43.5
Seahawks +3.5
Browns +7.5

Top Player Props:

Anytime TD Bets:

Week 11 Betting Primer

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)

Erickson's Pick: Under 43.5

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

The Jaguars have lost each of their last six games at EverBank Stadium against teams that held a winning record.
The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.
The Chargers have won the first half in each of their last six road games against the Jaguars.
Seven of the last eight games between the Chargers and Jaguars have gone OVER the total points line.
Four of the Chargers' last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
The Chargers have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven games.
The Chargers are 0-3 ATS on the road this season – failing to cover by 5.5, 3.5, and 10 points.
The Chargers are 0-4 ATS on the road versus the AFC South
Chargers' road games on the East Coast tend to go UNDER the projected total.
Since the start of 2024, when they have played on the East Coast, the point totals have been 39, 29, 30, 37, 30, 47, 47, and 56. 3-5 O/U. Under 40 PPG.
The Chargers rank 3rd in red zone defense.

Overall:

Both teams are volatile and not trustworthy, so the matchup sets up better for a total than a side: the Chargers' patchwork offensive line, combined with a 1 p.m. ET body-clock game, typically suppresses scoring, and weird special teams touchdowns were the only thing that beat this angle last time LA played on the East Coast versus the Titans.

The Bolts’ defense is rounding into form, allowing the fourth-lowest 3^rd down conversion rate this season. They dominated the Steelers’ offense and now rank in the top 10 in EPA allowed (8^th). Third overall in passing EPA.

But I still have major concerns with a bad OL traveling against a turnover-creating defense that ranks middle-of-the-pack in QB pressures.

Struggle bus for the Jags offense that has been anything but consistent. Keep in mind that last week the offensive line struggled. They scored on a punt return TD and greatly benefitted from short fields (scored on drives that started at HOU 40, HOU 19, JAX 42) before completely stalling in the fourth quarter.

Jags RT Anton Harrison was also on the injury report this week (two DNPs) along with WRs Parker Washington and Brian Thomas Jr. Expectation is that they play, but it might be at less than 100%.

Under 43.5.

Oronde Gadsden II had an injury scare last week, but he is already back to full practice. The Jaguars are a sieve versus TEs, so hop on his props when the drop (none available at the time of this writing. Anytime TD is also solid at +172.

Props:

Oronde Gadsden II: Anytime TD (+172)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)

Erickson's Pick: Buccaneers +5.5

Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

The Bills have won the first half in each of their last nine home games against teams that held a winning record.
The Bills have won 14 of their last 15 home games.
The Buccaneers have covered the spread in each of their last seven games following a loss.
Also, 13-4 ATS after a loss (76%). 11 of the last 12 games covered after a loss.
Four of the Bills’ last five games have gone UNDER the total points line.
The Buccaneers have won three of their last four games as road underdogs.
The Buccaneers are 17-6 ATS on the road since 2023 (74%) – Second-best mark in the NFL.
The Buccaneers are 13-4 ATS as road underdogs since 2023 (76%) and 9-8 straight up (53%).
Five of the Buccaneers' last seven games have gone OVER the total points line (9 of last 14).
Bills have scored 30+ points in 15 of their previous 22 games with their starters playing. In five of nine games this season, they have scored 30-plus.
The Bills have covered the spread in eight of their last nine home games against teams that held a winning record (5-0 as home underdogs straight up).
Fourteen of the Bills' last 18 home games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Classic Baker Mayfield spot: he's been profitable as a road underdog (even more so off a loss), and Buffalo's defense hasn't looked equipped to separate from decent offenses.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Bills' Week 1 defensive starters played only 42.9% of the snaps in Week 10, the 2nd-lowest rate among the 28 teams that played this past week (49ers: 42.1%).

With eight defensive players on injured reserve from the defensive side, Buffalo has been forced into extensive personnel shuffling, leading them to play 33 different defenders this season, tied for the second-most in the NFL. Heading into Week 11, Buffalo has three more defensive players listed as questionable.

The numbers and narrative align; Buccaneers +5.5. A win outright might be a stretch (Buffalo plays very well at home), but I think this is closer to a field goal outcome.

Mayfield playing as a road underdog after a loss is a betting cheat code.

The Bills will also be without No. 1 TE, Dalton Kincaid, after he injured his hamstring last week. Buffalo has a laundry list of defensive injuries for a unit that has already struggled this season, particularly versus the run (26^th in run defense EPA).

Josh Palmer....take the over. The Bills are in dire straits at the pass catcher position.

I think Palmer gets thrown right back into the mix immediately. He has 16.5 yards in all but one game this season (5/6).

Note that before Palmer’s injury, the veteran WR looked primed for a big game - the Week 6 game broadcast spoke about Joe Brady wanting to get him more involved - but he got hurt after his second catch.

Props:

Josh Palmer: OVER 16.5 receiving yards

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)

Erickson's Pick: Pass (Lean Falcons -3.5)

Confidence: ★★☆☆☆

Trends:

The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight home games after coming off overtime.
The Panthers have won four of their last five games as underdogs.
They have covered nine straight as underdogs following a loss.
The Panthers have covered the spread in 13 of their last 15 games as underdogs.
Bryce Young is 3-15 on the road as a starter. 7-14-1 ATS.
Each of the last four games between NFC South teams has gone UNDER the total points line.
The Falcons have conceded the first touchdown in each of their last four games.
The Falcons have lost four straight to the Panthers
The Falcons are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 home games as underdogs and 11-8 as home favorites on the ML.
As home favorites since 2023: 6-12 ATS (33%).
Six of the Falcons' last nine home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
The Panthers rank 6th in red zone scoring defense.

Overall:

Peak four-outcome vibes: Atlanta's covered two straight away from the dome and typically is stronger at home, while Carolina swings wildly week to week. True to their name as the cardiac cats, because this team will get your heart racing.

Atlanta's offense hasn't been the main issue in the last two games, either, scoring 23-plus points with Michael Penix Jr back after a one-week lay-off.

I know Joe likes the Dirty Birds in this spot as one of his best bets on the NFL Week 11 Bets Show.

“A true ‘must-win’ spot for the Falcons, who already dropped the first matchup to Carolina earlier this season, 30-0. Joe sees Atlanta responding at home behind a heavy Bijan Robinson-centric script, facing a Panthers team that remains offensively limited and one-dimensional behind RB Rico Dowdle.

Panthers DT Derrick Brown has been on the injury report the last few weeks and might not be 100%. That further supports the idea that Atlanta can finally get going this week, especially considering how bad the Panthers usually play on the road in the Bryce Young era.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)

Erickson's Pick: Pass

Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Trends:

Since 2024, the Steelers are 4-2 ATS at home (as a favorite) - 8-4 ATS at home ATS
The Steelers have won seven of their last eight home games against AFC North opponents.
The Steelers are 5-4 toward the Over this season. All but one of their non-divisional home games this season have gone over the total.
The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games when playing with a rest advantage.
The Bengals have lost seven straight as road underdogs
The Bengals have the second-worst record ATS in the division (36%) since 2023.
The Bengals have covered the spread in eight of their last 13 road games.
Seven of the Bengals’ last 10 games as road underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

This is only Joe Flacco's second road start with the Bengals this season (Week 6 at GB).

Even so...it feels like there are too many points for a divisional rematch in which the team catching points won outright in the previous spot.

Pittsburgh's offense is hit-or-miss, and Cincinnati still has the explosive pieces on offense to trade scores even if the defense leaks.

Bengals +5.5 was my early lean on Monday’s show. But now I want no part of the sides.

Starting guard Isaac Seumalo is returning for the Steelers, so I expect the Steelers’ run game to hum against a bottom-dwelling Bengals run defense.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Bengals’ defense has struggled with tackling this season, missing 109 tackles and allowing 778 yards after missed tackles, both the most in the NFL.
Much of that stems from poor execution on initial contact, as they've converted just 71.7% of their first tackle opportunities, the lowest rate in the league.

And I alluded to in the intro…the Steelers shouldn’t be underestimated at home. Bad offensive lines don’t travel well, so I am more concerned about the immobile Joe Flacco than in past weeks.

Even so, I expect a lot from the Bengals’ rushing attack.

Chase Brown has 70-plus rushing+receiving yards in three straight games. He should see all the volume he can handle with Samaje Perine out. Brown played 96% of the snaps in his absence in the Bengals game versus the Bears.

Brown has 15-plus touches in two straight games, with his touches increasing in four straight games.

The Steelers just got cooked by Kimani Vidal, and Brown went for 100 yards in his first matchup versus the Steelers earlier this season. Steelers LB Alex Highsmith also seems unlikely to play.

No RB has fewer TDs this season (3) on as many RZ attempts/targets (19) as Brown does this season. I love Brown to score at +130 odds.

Props:

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (CBS)

Erickson's Pick: Pass

Confidence: ★☆☆☆☆

Trends:

The Titans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight games against teams that held a losing record.
Each of the Titans’ last five home games as underdogs has gone OVER the total points line.
The Titans are 4-0 toward the over at home this season
The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 11of their last 12 home games.
The Texans have covered four straight in Nashville
The Texans are 11-4 ATS against the AFC South since 2023.
Davis Mills is 14-13 ATS in 27 starts (BetMGM).
Eighteen of the Texans’ last 27 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Fourteen of the Texans' last 24 wins have been by seven or fewer points (58%).
The Texans are 4-4-1 ATS as road favorites and 11-11-1 on the road ATS since C.J. Stroud became the team's starting QB.

Overall:

Tennessee's bye won't fix the roster churn and lookahead to 2026, while Houston should handle business-just beware that Texans games rarely turn into blowouts. Side lean Texans, but number-sensitive; totals lean muted with a pass at a low 37. Davis Mills back under center doesn't make me feel great about laying the points with Houston either.

It took a complete Jaguars collapse to get Houston to win(cover) last week.

I'd like to go under - but the total has already been muted.

Pass for me on this game with the line settling at 5.5. Money/action is coming in on the Titans because nobody should be over the moon betting on Mills. The forecast is also calling for some rain.

Gunnar Helm has at least two receptions in any game this season where he has run more than 10 routes (6/9). Interim HC talked about getting Helm the ball more this week (S/O CoachSpeakIndex), so I think this is a low bar to pass. Not to mention, fellow tight end Chig Okonkowo is on the injury report coming out of the bye week.

Why Cam Ward thinks TE Gunnar Helm doesn't get enough credit: pic.twitter.com/19WdQClZy5

— AtoZ Sports Nashville (@AtoZSports) November 12, 2025

Projections have Helm for nearly two catches.

Props:

Gunnar Helm: OVER 1.5 receptions

Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)

Erickson's Pick: Over 42.5 (lean Giants +7)

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

Per BetMGM: As an underdog, Jameis Winston is 28-27-3 ATS, including 21-13-1 at +3.5 or higher. (60% ATS).
Last year in Winston's six full starts: 4-2 toward the over.
The Packers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games against teams that held a losing record.
The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
The Giants have scored the first touchdown in each of their last five home games.
The Giants have won two of their last three home games outright as underdogs (3-2 ATS at home this season)
Since 2022, the Giants are 14-11-1 as home underdogs. Big Blue at home: 17-13-1 ATS since 2022.
Each of the last four games between the Packers and Giants has gone OVER the total points line.
The Packers have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.
The Packers have covered the spread in 7 of their last 14 games as favorites.
Since 2023, the Packers have been 21-6-1 when they allowed fewer than 23 points on defense and 17-11 ATS. Green Bay is 5-14 ATS when they allowed 23+ points on defense.
GB is 6-4 as a road favorite (O/U) since 2023. 15-8 on the road O/U (3^rd-highest).
They are 6-2 toward the OVER when playing with a rest disadvantage.
The Packers are also 3-1 toward the over on the road this season (three straight overs).
Four of the Giants' last five games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

The head coach’s dead-cat bounce is just betting 101 when it comes to NFL football.

Per the Action Network, 38 teams have fired their coach during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 17-21 straight up (SU) and 22-16 against the spread (ATS) since 2023.

Last season’s results: 1-2 SU and ATS.

The Saints fired Dennis Allen – won outright at home as 3.5-point underdogs
The Jets fired Robert Saleh, lost by 3 points to the Bills at home
The Bears fired Matt Eberflus – and got destroyed on the road the next week.

So far this season, it's also 0-1 ATS with the Tennessee Titans.

But I do think that Mike Kafka isn't just a random fill-in as an interim HC. He is a strong offensive-minded. And he already made a good personnel move by putting Winston at QB1.

I cannot guarantee that Winston covers the spread, because pick-sixes and turnovers can lead to a wide range of outcomes.

Hence why I just want to bet the over. The Giants’ defense is terrible...

The Packers rank 11th in yards per play; the Giants have allowed 24+ points in 4 of their last five games (top-5 in total yards and yards per play allowed this season).

Big Blue's defense has also been completely gashed by injuries.

The Giants +7 has value after the "dead cat bounce," but I am pivoting to the total, calling it my best approach "to chaos."

With Winston starting, both offenses get volatility upside. Winston-led teams went 4-2 to the over in his six full starts last season, and his reckless vertical style boosts possessions and explosive plays.

The Packers’ offense is due for positive regression after facing the Eagles' elite defense. I fully expect Winston to create points for BOTH teams.

WR Romeo Doubs is also practicing in full. Matthew Golden is expected to return. But CB Nate Hobbs looks like he will miss, further pushing this game toward points.

In the Packers' last three road games, they have given up passing yardage – 219 passing yards or more AND 36-plus pass attempts AND 2-plus passing TDs.

Every road game the Packers have played has featured the opposing QB attempting at least 36 passes. Before the last two weeks, every QB that played the Packers hit at least 36 pass attempts. Winston hit at least 36 pass attempts in five of his six full starts last season with the Browns.

If you are looking for SGP action….this is the game to do to so.

Props:

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET (FOX)

Erickson's Pick: Vikings -2.5

Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Trends:

The Bears have lost the first half in each of their last eight road games against teams that held a losing record.
The Vikings have won eight of their last nine games against the Bears.
The Bears have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games against NFC North opponents.
The Bears have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as favorites.
The Bears have lost nine of their last 11 road games against teams that held a losing record.
The Bears have covered the spread in six of their last seven games.
The Bears have lost 11 of their last 13 road games following a win.
Six of the Vikings’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
The Vikings have failed to cover the spread or win outright as an underdog following a loss in six of their last seven games (also lost the first half).
All but 13 of the Vikings' last 41 games have been decided by eight points or fewer (78%).
The Vikings have won six of their last nine home games.

Overall:

Two second-year QBs with scramble spikes make totals fragile, but situationally, Minnesota "needs" this more at home.

Brian Flores' defense has contained big offenses well enough to trust a straight-up win even if the spread is thin.

Caleb Williams is a much better bet at home than on the road(4-7-1 ATS as a road underdog)...so ultimately I side with Minnesota at home. The Bears' defense remains atrocious against both the pass/run (third in yards per play allowed).

J.J. McCarthy should be able to do enough to get the Vikings an FG win at home, especially if they get more guys back on the offensive line this week.

According to Next Gen Stats…Williams scrambled to run 6 times across 43 dropbacks in Week 1 against the Vikings, resulting in his highest scramble run rate of the season and the 3rd-highest rate of his career (14.0%).

He turned those six carries into 58 yards and a touchdown, including three explosive runs (10+ yards). Last week against the Giants, Williams scrambled to run 5 times for a career-high 64 yards and a touchdown.

Williams has 24-plus rushing yards in three straight and 33-plus in 2 of his last three matchups versus the Vikings.

We know that Flores will dial up blitzes, but Williams is talented enough as a runner to make one guy miss and pick up chunk yardage. Take the over on his rushing yards prop.

According to Next Gen Stats...Across three combined meetings against the Flores-led Vikings in his career, Williams has been sacked just twice across 2 of 47 blitzed dropbacks, resulting in a 4.3% sack rate, lower than his rate of 12.7% against all other opponents. Rome Odunze has been Williams' go-to guy against the blitz this season, as the two have connected on 16 of 28 passes for 244 yards and six touchdowns, the 2nd-most such touchdowns among QB-receiver duos.

Williams has hit the rushing yards over in every game the Bears have lost outright this season (24-plus).

Props:

Caleb Williams: OVER 20.5 rushing yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals - Sunday, 4:05 PM ET (FOX)

Erickson's Pick: 49ers -3 (Over 48.5)

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

The Cardinals have lost each of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.
Seven of the 49ers’ last eight road games against NFC West opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
The Cardinals have scored the first touchdown in 10 of their last 11 home games.
The 49ers have covered the spread in each of their last four games following a loss.
The Cardinals have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games as underdogs.
The Cardinals are 3-1 ATS with Jacoby Brissett as the starting QB.
All but two games Arizona has played have been within one score (2-5 record in close games).
The road team has covered the spread in eight of the Cardinals' last nine games.
Four of the 49ers' last five home games against NFC West opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Brock Purdy is back under center, making his first start since Week 4. The lines haven't moved too drastically with the 49ers getting their QB1 back...as they remain small road favorites versus the Cardinals.

The Niners typically bounce back after losses - and you also tend to get a better number ATS when they play away from Santa Clara (10-7 ATS as a road favorite since 2023).

With the 49ers potentially healthier than Arizona, who are dealing with a ton of defensive injuries, I think we see the Old Niners Faithful roll here.

These teams played a 1-point game back in Week 3, but both had different starting QBs in a 16-15 finish in favor of SF. Both defenses were also much healthier.

Per Next Gen Stats…since Week 6, when 49ers LB Fred Warner suffered a season-ending ankle injury, the 49ers defense has allowed +0.16 EPA per play, the 3rd-most in the NFL in that span. From Week 1 to Week 5, their EPA per play allowed was -0.07, the 10th-fewest in the league.

I think we see points here, but with the 49ers coming out victorious by more than a field goal with Purdy back at QB.

Give me the 49ers -2.5 (lean toward game total going over).

Because I expect scoring...my favorite bet is a player prop.

No.2 RB Brian Robinson Jr. has at least five carries in three of the last four games and in 7/10 games this season (6/7 games with the Niners as favorites). The coaching staff has recognized that he has earned more carries after some strong performances with 40-plus rushing yards in back-to-back weeks (with a decent chunk of red zone work).

Arizona has faced an average of 30 rushing attempts per game over the last three weeks.

5-star bet on the BP Cheat Sheet. LFG.

Props:

Brian Robinson OVER 4.5 carries

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET (CBS)

Erickson's Pick: Seahawks +3

Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Trends:

The Seahawks have won each of their last 10 road games. 5-0 ATS as road underdogs.
The Seahawks are 11-1 SU on the road since the start of 2024
The Seahawks have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games.
The Rams have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four games.
Four of the Seahawks’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
The Rams have beaten the Seahawks as favorites in nine straight.
Since 2023, the Rams are 3-10 O/U as home favorites.
Six of the Rams’ last seven games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
Nine of the Rams' last 13 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
The Rams rank second in red-zone defense. The Seahawks rank seventh.

Overall:

The Seahawks are road warriors. 11-1 SU on the road since the start of 2024. The team is built to win games like this...and I think we are getting value with the Hawks because they are playing in LA. But the Rams don't have actual home-field advantage. In fact, they are typically overrated as home favorites (3-4 ATS since 2024).

I can't guarantee a Seahawks victory because the Rams are arguably the best team in the NFL.

But with how well Mike Macdonald's team plays on the road, Cooper Kupp facing his old team, and Rashid Shaheed joining Seattle's offense as a true X factor....give me the Hawks.

Davante Adams looks like he is less than 100% and DT Kobie Turner is out.

Rashid Shaheed ran a route on 62% of the dropbacks in his season debut with the Seahawks. 3 touches for 26 total yards (two carries, one catch). Decent usage considering the blow-out game script. In a back-and-forth game versus the Rams (who Shaheed just played and commanded a 36% target share, catching 5 of 9 targets for 68 yards, just two weeks ago), I love targeting Shaheed's suppressed props after a lackluster debut. Not his fault. The Seattle coaches are already talking up getting him more pass opportunities.

I like the over on the yards/receptions. Last year in Klint Kubiak's offense, Shaheed went for 70-plus receiving yards in four of his five healthy games.

The Rams' defensive weakness lies in their secondary, ranking 25^th against play action and 20^th against intermediate passing.

According to Next Gen Stats...The pairing with Sam Darnold is also intriguing - Darnold's touchdown passes have averaged 27.4 yards of air distance this season, the fourth-most in the NFL.

Darnold has completed 16 of 23 deep passes (20+ air yards) for 607 yards and five touchdowns this season, translating to a league-high 69.6% completion percentage that is more than 10 percentage points higher than the next closest quarterback (Drake Maye, 57.1%).

Shaheed has averaged an eye-popping 45.8 yards of air distance on his TD receptions across his career, the most by any player in the Next Gen Stats era.

Welsh cashed his Dalton Schultz ladder bet last week. I am going there with Shaheed this week, moving his yardage line up to 70 yards (a number he nearly hit with a rookie QB in Week 9 versus this same defense). Nearly 5-1 odds.

We have seen far from elite WRs hit 70 yards versus the Rams this season: Jauan Jennings, Travis Hunter, Kendrick Bourne, Adonai Mitchell etc.

Props:

Rashid Shaheed: OVER 31.5 receiving yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET (CBS)

Erickson's Pick: Under 44.5

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

Andy Reid has an exceptional record of 22-4 after a regular-season bye week
- 9-3 with the Chiefs
- 6-1 with Patrick Mahomes
- Closer to 50% ATS
The Broncos have won each of their last 10 home games.
The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last four home games against the Chiefs.
The Broncos have lost five straight as underdogs in the AFC West
Denver has finished just 2-5 ATS as a favorite overall this season.
Denver is 0-2 ATS as a home underdog since 2024.
Nine of the Broncos’ last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
Denver is 7-3 toward the under this season (KC is 6-3 toward the under).
After a bye week since 2018, the Chiefs are just 3-9 toward the over.
The Broncos rank 1^st in red-zone defense.
The last four matchups between the Broncos/Chiefs have gone UNDER the projected total.

Overall:

Bo Nix ranks 5^th-worst in dropback success rate this season among QBs. Simply put, this Broncos team is not what their 8-2 record suggests they are (especially on the offensive side of the ball).

Per Next Gen Stats, Nix has an 83.0 career passer rating in games that he has won. That is the 2nd lowest passer rating by any quarterback in wins in the last 10 seasons, only ahead of Brock Osweiler's 76.6 (minimum eight career wins).

The Broncos offense isn't great....and they will be without leading rushing J.K. Dobbins. They also won't have their best CB...Patrick Surtain.

I never want to bet against KC coming off a bye week, but I can fully recognize this looks like an FG game. Given the current point spread, it's a shy away spot for me. Instead...I love the game total UNDER.

The last four Chiefs-Broncos meetings have gone under.

Both teams are Top 10 in under percentage this season (DEN 7-3, KC 6-3). Both are top-10 in EPA/play allowed. Both are top-3 in EPA/play allowed versus the pass.

Andy Reid is 9-3 to the under after a bye since 2018.

I am expecting closer to a defensive chess match. The Broncos rank 1st in red-zone defense. And Kansas City's defense typically sharpens after the bye under Steve Spagnuolo.

Given Nix's offensive struggles and Denver's strong overall defense playing at home, this game will fly under 45 points.

As for the props...Another 5-star bet courtesy of the prop bet cheat sheet:

Bo Nix UNDER 34.5 pass attempts. No QB has hit this number vs KC this season. Nix also went under this number in both games versus KC last season.

The Broncos QB tends to run more when he's an underdog - which takes pass attempts out of his final stat line.

Props:

Bo Nix: UNDER 34.5 pass attempts

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET (CBS)

Erickson's Pick: Browns +7.5

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

The favorites have covered the spread in each of the Ravens’ last five games.
Each of the last four games between the Ravens and Browns has gone OVER the total points line.
Baltimore road games? Eleven of the last 14 have gone OVER the total.
The Ravens are 19-9 ATS on the road over the last two seasons.
Ravens are 15-9 ATS as a road favorite in their last 23 appearances.
As road favorites...they are also 8-4-1 toward the over since 2024.
Ten of the Browns' last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
The Browns have covered the spread in 11 of their last 17 home games.
The Browns are 6-5 over their last 11 games as home underdogs (SU).
Cleveland has the best ATS record at home since 2023 (65%).
Since the start of 2023, the Browns are 15-5 for the under at home.

Overall:

AFC North matchups are among the most challenging to handicap. They are played like no other divisional game - and the home underdogs thrive in closer contests.

It's a big number in a nasty AFC North spot- as the Browns' defense plays up at home and can drag the Ravens into a grinder if turnovers don't tilt it. Baltimore likely wins, but the spread is rich. My lean: Browns with the points at home.

And I do find it interesting that Joe, on this week's NFL Week 11 best bets show, opted for the Browns' team total under rather than bet the Ravens ATS.

Nobody "wants" to bet on the ugly underdogs...but rookie QBs at home are typically also better bets at home versus when they play on the road.

As I alluded to at the top, some home-field advantages will show up this week. Baltimore will be without No. 1 CB Marlon Humphrey this week. He missed Week 5 and the Ravens got blown out by the Texans, 44-10.

With the Browns slightly healthier than the Ravens entering Week 11 – and a forecast for high winds muting both teams’ passing attacks - this should be lower scoring and kept within one score.

The Browns' No. 2-ranked run defense can stifle the Ravens' run game, further keeping scoring to a minimum.

Lamar Jackson – before he got injured versus the Chiefs – had thrown for more than 1.5 passing TDs in 14 of his last 16 games played.

He also has at least two passing TDs in his last three games versus the Browns.

Per Next Gen Stats, Jackson has thrown a touchdown pass on 15 of his 147 pass attempts in 2025, which is good for the NFL's best pass touchdown percentage of 10.2 percent.

Instead of running the ball right to the strength of the Browns' defense, I'd predict Jackson to opt to throw when they get inside the red zone.

If you don't want to sweat the sides, just take Lamar's passing TD prop. The Browns have allowed the 7^th-highest passing TD rate this season.

DeVontez Walker will play more with Rashod Bateman out. All Walker does is catch TDs. Three of his four career catches have been TDs. He also scored twice earlier this year vs the Browns. 22-1. Let’s ride.

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