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NFL Betting Primer: Picks & Predictions (Week 16)

Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Dec 20, 2025
Author image by Andrew Erickson | @AndrewErickson_ | Dec 20, 2025
Week 16 NFL Betting Primer

Through 15 weeks, our official BettingPros plays sit at 43-39-1, STILL above the winning line after a .500 Week 15 (3-3).

Week 16 is where things get uncomfortable - and that's exactly where the value lives. Injuries are stacking up, playoff motivation is splitting teams in half, and the market is starting to overreact to what we just saw rather than what actually matters. This is the stretch of the season where discipline matters most.

Rather than chasing narratives, this week is about trusting the process: divisional dogs, inflated spreads, and totals that haven't fully caught up to how certain teams actually play. As always, I'm using trends, matchup data, and situational edges to narrow the card - not forcing action just because it's December.

And if you're looking to sharpen your edges beyond sides and totals, this is the perfect week to lean into props.

BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Results from 1,230 NFL props through Week 15:

  • 57% Win Rate – With a record of 695-534, we are consistently winning
  • +93.6 Units Won – Total profit using standard 1-unit bet sizing
  • 7.62% ROI – Every $100 wagered returns $107.62 on average

Top-Performing Markets

  • Rushing Attempts (60% Hit Rate)
  • Passing Attempts (62% Hit Rate)

This is where I'm finding my favorite "best bets" each week - especially in late-season spots where usage becomes more predictable.

Top 5 Best Bets:

  • Browns +10.5
  • Panthers +3 
  • CAR-TB over 45.5
  • Titans ML (+3.5)
  • Bengals -4.5
  • ATL-ARI over 48
  • Lions -7 

Top Player Props:

Anytime TD Bets:

Week 16 Betting Primer

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns

Erickson's Pick: Browns +10.5

Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • The Browns have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Bills have scored 30+ points in 18 of their previous 27 games with their starters on the field. In 8 of 14 games this season, they have scored 30-plus.
  • The Bills are 2-5 O/U on the road this season.
  • Fourteen of the Browns' last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Browns boast the 3rd-best home ATS record (14-9, 61%) since 2023 (trailing only Pittsburgh and Chicago).
  • The Browns have covered the spread in 12 of their last 20 home games.
  • The Browns are 6-8 over their last 14 games as home underdogs (SU).
  • They are 3-1 ATS at home as underdogs this season.
  • Fourteen of the Browns’ last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

I'm taking the Browns plus the points. Double-digit home dog, December in Cleveland with gross cold/windy weather in the forecast, and I'm not stepping in front of that. Buffalo is also the type of team that plays with fire - they thrive when they're chasing a game in the second half, and that's exactly why I don't want to lay a big number with them pregame. Cleveland's defense plays better at home, the weather can get gross, and the Browns still have motivation: they're playing for pride, they're playing for Myles Garrett chasing history, and they're playing to put good tape out there. I'll grab the +10.5 with the Brownies.

Josh Allen... say hello to your Kryptonite.

G Wyatt Teller (missed the last two games and listed as questionable) and G Zak Zinter were back practicing this week, along with Joel Bitonio and Teven Jenkins. Hopefully, they can help boost the Browns’ offensive line blocking.

Quinshon Judkins handled the majority of RB touches with 12 carries for just 21 yards (67% snap share) with three catches for -4 yards last week. Trayveon Williams was the other RB (three touches, one carry coming late in the fourth quarter) with Dylan Sampson inactive (opened the week with a DNP).

The Browns' OL is pretty banged up, hence Judkins' poor YPC. Even so, Judkins has hit the over on yards/attempts in 5/6 home games this season. If the Browns can keep this game within striking distance (a la my bet on the Browns catching 10.5 at home), Judkins should get fed with volume versus a bad Bills run defense.

Props:

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys

Erickson's Pick: Chargers ML (Lean over 49.5)

Confidence: ★★★

Trends:

  • Each of the Chargers’ last six road games against NFC opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Chargers have won eight of their last nine games against opponents on a losing streak.
  • The Chargers have covered the spread in four of their last five games.
  • The Chargers have lost 11 of their last 13 games as underdogs following a win.
  • The Chargers are 2-4 ATS on the road this season (second week in a row they have been road underdogs). 3-1 ATS as road underdogs since last season.
  • Nine of the Cowboys’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Dallas has won 15 of their last 17 games after a loss

Overall:

I was on the Chargers earlier this week. Dallas' defense still has major issues in the secondary (we just saw it on SNF), and an under-the-radar factor here is the Quinnen Williams head injury - he's been the anchor of that front since Dallas made that move. It looked like he had a chance to miss, but it seems like he is trending in the right direction to play.

If he's in, I'm out on this game. If he's out, we're right back to "you can run all over the Cowboys." That helps protect Justin Herbert and makes life easier for the Chargers’ offense. And realistically, Dallas is basically on life support in the playoff race.

I'm still a bit perplexed by the Chargers being underdogs here, in what should be a higher-scoring affair. Dallas is getting overrated because they are at home.

The Chargers have covered +3.5 in 79% of their games this season.

I think this makes the Bolts great for teasers. Move the spread to Chargers +3.5 and take the OVER 40.5 points (93% of Cowboys' games have gone over this number).

The Chargers have allowed pressure on 43.9% of Justin Herbert’s dropbacks this season, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL (Next Gen Stats).

In their last two games, he’s been pressured on 57.3% of his dropbacks. During this two-game span, Herbert has completed 10 of 24 passes for 192 yards when under pressure (8.0 yards per attempt), one touchdown, and two interceptions. The Cowboys have generated a 34.4% pressure rate this season, just above the league average of 34.1%. Since acquiring Quinnen Williams after their Week 10 bye, the Cowboys have generated just a 31.1% pressure rate (11th lowest).

In the last two games, the Chargers have a -9% pass rate over expectation. Weeks 1-13: +4%. Not a coincidence these two games have featured the return of rookie RB Omarion Hampton after his early-season injury.

Herbert also passed UNDER 33.5 times in seven straight games.

5-star bet on the prop bet cheat sheet this week.

Props:

New York Jets at New Orleans Saints

Erickson's Pick: Saints -6.5

Confidence: ★★★★

Trends:

  • The Jets have lost each of their last 10 games as underdogs against opponents on a winning streak.
  • Nine of the Saints’ last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Saints’ last five games.
  • The Saints have lost eight of their last 10 home games.
  • Fifteen of the Saints’ last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Saints' last 10 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Saints are 1-6 O/U at home this season (37.3 PPG)
  • The Jets have covered the spread in four of their last seven games.
  • NY is 3-2-1 ATS on the road this season
  • Fifteen of the Jets' last 21 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Jets have lost 15 of their last 18 games as underdogs.

Overall:

I like the Saints at home. Tyler Shough has shown incremental improvement each week, and he's not your typical rookie - the dude has a ton of experience, and you're seeing him settle in. Per Next Gen Stats...

Shough is 3-3 as the Saints’ starting quarterback with a 92.1 passer rating in those games. Shough’s 69.0 completion percentage as the starting quarterback is 3rd in the NFL since Week 9, only behind Josh Allen and Brock Purdy.

This feels like one of those "handle business as a favorite against a bad team" spots. The Jets are dealing with the third-string QB mess again and are missing too many playmakers. In the Superdome, that's a brutal setup for them. Saints -5.5 is where I'm leaning.

Their defense is underrated, holding opponents to 24 points or fewer in five straight games.

Juwan Johnson has recorded 30+ receiving yards in each of the Saints’ last eight games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Erickson's Pick: Panthers +3 AND Over 45.5

Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • Carolina is 4-2 toward the over at home this season (45 PPG)
  • 11 of the Panthers’ last 13 games at Bank of America Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Panthers have covered 11 straight after a loss (6-0 ATS this season).
  • Winners of 5 outright as underdogs following a loss.
  • The Panthers are 13-5 O/U after a loss since 2024.
  • Seven of the Panthers' last eight games as home as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread in each of their last seven road games following a Division game.
  • The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games.
  • The Buccaneers have lost six of their last eight games.
  • The Buccaneers have won nine of their last 10 games against the Panthers.
  • Each of the Buccaneers’ last five games in December has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Buccaneers are 17-8 ATS on the road since 2023 (72%) – Second-best mark in the NFL.

Overall:

I love the over here, assuming the weather cooperates. Carolina games at home are chaos in the best way for totals, and this matchup sets up for points. Both match-ups last season surpassed the closing lines of 46 points.

And I'm also interested in Carolina on the side for one simple reason: the Panthers are perfect ATS after a loss. That's the code. Did they just lose? Bet them next week. Tampa has burned me too many times lately to trust them as a road favorite, so my cleanest angle is the over - and I'm very live to Panthers +3 and moneyline as well.

Bryce Young is T-4th in the NFL with four games with at least three touchdown passes in 2025 (Next Gen Stats). That is the most such games in a season by a Panthers quarterback since Cam Newton in 2017. This is twice as many as he had in his first two career seasons combined.

The Bucs are allowing nearly two passing TDs/game on the road this season. And the last 6 QBs to face TB (five have tossed for 2-plus TDs).

On the injury front –  Dave Canales said WR Tetairoa McMillan and OT Ickey Ekwonu are both day-to-day. But T-Mac practiced in full on Thursday, suggesting he should be good to go.

My SGP for the week: Panthers ML, Game Total OVER 45.5 and Young to throw for 2-plus TDs  – 4-1 odds (implied odds of +684) per the BettingPros SGP Tool Builder.

Props:

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

Erickson's Pick: Pass

Confidence: ★★

Trends:

  • The Giants have lost each of their last eight games.
  • The Giants have lost the first quarter in six of their last seven home games against teams that held a losing record.
  • Eight of the Giants’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • With Jaxson Dart, the Giants have gone 1-4 ATS in his five road starts. 6-3 toward the over overall, 3-2 toward the over on the road.
  • The Giants have won two of their last five home games outright as underdogs (4-3 ATS at home this season)
  • Since 2022, the Giants are 14-12-1 as home underdogs. Big Blue at home: 17-14-1 ATS since 2022.
  • Five of the Vikings' last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Minnesota is 1-5 ATS after a win (1-5 straight up) and 2-3 ATS as a road underdog this season.
  • Teams are 2-2-9 toward the Over in their game following a matchup versus Dallas. The Lasso Lag!

Overall:

Earlier in the week, the only way I felt good about betting this game was the over. There's too much chaos to pick a side confidently - both quarterbacks are volatile, both teams can create weird game scripts, and you're getting play extension and scramble ability on both sides. If you made me pick a side, the value is probably the Giants’ moneyline as the home team catching a dome team outdoors after a big primetime win (classic letdown setup, especially against the Dallas Cowboys). But overall? Felt like keeping it simple by going over 43.5.

However…the Lasso Lag trend scares me.

And according to the Ringer Gambling Show, Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is 7-2-2 ATS versus rookie QBs (10-1 straight up). Even so, the Vikings' defense has a ton of injuries, and so does their offensive line (Christian Darrisaw was placed on IR).

Jaxson Dart has thrown 46.2% of his pass attempts in under 2.5 seconds this season, the 7th-highest rate among qualified quarterbacks (Next Gen Stats).

On such passes, Dart has recorded a 78.7% completion percentage (5th-highest) while adding +0.13 expected points per attempt (13th-most). Dart has thrown 7 of his 13 touchdown passes and zero interceptions on attempts under 2.5 seconds. The Vikings have allowed the 2nd-lowest completion percentage (67.5%) and the 16th-fewest expected points added per attempt (+0.08) to passes thrown in under 2.5 seconds.

The Giants have used 12 personnel at the 4th-highest rate this season (34.5%), earning 5.9 yards per play (7th-most) and an explosive play rate of 16.3% (4th-highest) out of such groupings. Out of 12, the Giants have passed for 9.8 yards per attempt (3rd-most) but have rushed for just 3.8 yards per carry (9th-fewest). The Vikings have allowed just 4.6 yards per play against 12 personnel (4th-fewest), surrendering just 6.2 yards per pass attempt (5th-fewest) and 4.3 yards per rush (14th-most).

Aaron Jones has 2.5-plus catches in 5-of-6 games. The Giants have allowed the 6th-most receptions to RBs this season (4.9/game).

Props:

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans

Erickson's Pick: Titans +3 (Titans ML +130)

Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • Titans are 5-2 toward the over at home this season (45 PPG)
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 road games following a home loss.
  • Eight of the Chiefs’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Titans have scored first in each of their last five home games.
  • Tennessee has lost 11 straight at home.
  • Titans are 6-0 ATS versus the AFC West
  • Against West Coast teams, the Titans are 4-1 ATS when flying to Nashville.
  • The Titans have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 14 home games (covered three of the last four home games)
  • The Chiefs have lost each of their last four games as road favorites.

Overall:

Give me Tennessee outright (+130). I get the "pride" angle for Kansas City, and I get the Gardner Minshew "Beowulf" energy, but I'm betting the team that I think has more to play for in terms of direction and evaluation. The Titans want to put good tape out there going into next year, and they've actually shown life offensively the last couple weeks - Tony Pollard finally cooking changes how you can approach them. And this is still a measuring-stick type spot for Tennessee: "How do we stack up against this standard?" I'll take the Titans’ moneyline at plus odds.

They have played better at home, and the Chiefs are vastly overrated ATS on the road. They are a one-dimensional offense that can't run the ball for explosive chunk plays.

Per Next Gen Stats – The Chiefs offense has generated a 43.9% success rate on designed rushes this season, the 4th-highest mark in the league.

Their ball carriers have been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 42.5% of designed carries (NFL Average: 43.2%) and have been stuffed for a loss or no gain on just 14.1% of carries, the 5th-lowest rate in the league. The Titans’ defense has allowed the 6th-lowest success rate on designed rushes (37.0%) this season. They have hit ball carriers at or behind the line of scrimmage at the 4th-highest rate (49.2%) and stuffed them at the 12th-highest rate (19.6%).

The Chiefs' OL is a mess, and Titans' DT, Jeffery Simmons, has played like a man possessed the last few weeks.

Per Next Gen Stats, Simmons has posted a 14.7% pressure rate this season, the highest among defensive tackles with at least 150 pass rushes. He has produced a pressure rate north of 20% in both of his past two games despite being double-teamed on more than 40% of his rushes in each. He currently leads the league with 17 pressures against double teams this season and is just three away from surpassing his career high of 19 set in 2021.

Patrick Mahomes was under pressure on 48.6% of his dropbacks against the Chargers, his 2nd-highest pressure rate this season.

Per NGS...The issues have shown up in pass protection, as the Chiefs have allowed pressure on more than 42% of dropbacks in each of their past two games, including a 52.5% pressure rate in Week 15 against the Chargers.

On the injury front (lengthy for KC), Leo Chenal (OUT – shoulder), Trent McDuffie (OUT – knee), Jaylon Moore (OUT – knee), Rashee Rice (OUT – concussion protocol), Jawaan Taylor (OUT – triceps) and Tyquan Thornton (OUT – concussion protocol) will all miss the game.

Tony Pollard continued his hot streak with another 104 yards and 1 TD on 14 carries versus the Niners. The backfield is clearly shifting toward Pollard.

And this man has some contract incentives within reach to round out the season with 1,110 yards and seven TDs, which are well within reach.

Against a Patrick Mahomes-less Chiefs team that just got knocked out of the playoffs...I think Pollard might be a sneaky player prop to target. Pollard is averaging 20 touches per game over the last two weeks (fantasy RB1 in back-to-back weeks).

He has also hit the OVER 57.5 rushing yards in 3 straight games. The last four RBs have hit at least 58 yards vs KC's defense.

Props:

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins

Erickson's Pick: Bengals -4.5

Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • The Bengals have lost six of their last seven games.
  • Eight of the Bengals' last 14 games as road underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Miami has failed to cover the spread in nine straight as underdogs following a win (losers of 12 straight).
  • Four of the Bengals’ last five games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Bengals have won 7 straight as road favorites (5-2 ATS)
  • The Dolphins have covered the spread in 20 of their last 27 games against teams with a losing record (74%).
  • Nine of the Dolphins' last 12 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • A Dolphins game has not exceeded 44 points since Week 6 (2-4-2 O/U over that span).

Overall:

Joe Burrow said this week:

“I like playing football. For the same reasons that I wanted to push to come back from injury, the same reasons I wanted to play this week,” he said Wednesday. “It feels like everything, everybody’s trying to do everything in their power to make me not play football, and I feel like I’m fighting it, like fighting everybody else. I just want to play ball. That’s all I want to do.”

This is a prime Bengals bounce-back spot for me. Burrow had an awful day versus the Ravens (and typically how he performs versus the AFC North teams) and owned it - and the way I see it, he responds by making football fun again: touchdowns in warm weather against a bad defense. Cincinnati's defense stinks (although slightly better in recent weeks), whereas Miami's defense has been beatable, and this game initially had all the ingredients for points. I thought this line could move toward Cincinnati once people watched Miami in Pittsburgh on Monday night in the cold. But what I didn't know was that Tua Tagovailoa would be benched in favor of rookie QB Quinn Ewers after his abysmal performance. That has moved the line drastically in Cincy’s favor - and I don't disagree.

The QBs playing in this game are no comparison. All-Pro QB versus a 7th-round rookie QB making his NFL debut.

Dolphins safety Minkah Fitzpatrick also seems very unlikely to play after getting hurt on Monday Night Football. LB Jordyn Brooks is also banged up.

The Bengals by a billion? Maybe? Maybe.

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals

Erickson's Pick: Over 48.5

Confidence: ★★★★

Trends:

  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in 10 of their last 16 games as underdogs.
  • The road team has covered the spread in 12 of the Cardinals’ last 14 games.
  • The Cardinals are 4-5 ATS with Jacoby Brissett as the starting QB (1-5 in the last six starts). 7-3 toward the OVER.
  • All but five games Arizona has played have been within one score (2-7 record in close games).
  • In each of the Cardinals’ last six games, their opponents have been the first to 15 points.
  • Nine of the Cardinals’ last 10 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Falcons are 4-1 ATS with a rest advantage since 2024.
  • The Falcons are also undefeated ATS as a road underdog (4-0). 0-3 as a road favorite.
  • The Falcons on the road since the start of 2023: 10-13-1 ATS. 5-3 ATS this season.
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five road games following a win.

Overall:

I don't trust either side, but I can absolutely get behind the over. It's indoors, Arizona can't stop the run, and that's a problem when Bijan Robinson is walking through the door. And Jacoby Brissett has turned into this ridiculous totals magnet - he wills games toward points without even needing perfect conditions. If this turns into Bijan smashing and Brissett chucking/creating scoring drives, the over makes the most sense to me.

This was Joe's Hard Rock Best Bet of the week on the Week 16 Best Bets Show - and I can't find much to argue against his favorite pick in Week 16.

Getting Drake London back should also provide a big boost to this game, launching into a high-scoring affair.

Michael Carter led the backfield with 14 carries for 56 yards (four catches on four targets). Emari Demercado only had one carry in his first game back (three targets).

I'd expect more of a committee with Demercado leading the charge in Week 16. That's because from Weeks 9-10 (the last two games Demercado played before his injury, Carter was either inactive or clearly behind him in the pecking order. His snaps increased directly in correlation with Demercado's missed time (Weeks 11-14).

Demercado only played seven snaps versus the Texans, but has not been listed on the injury report this week. The Cardinals love him in pass protection, which suggests Carter won't catch as many passes. Carter has zero combined catches in games where Demercado has played at least 27% of the snaps.

Averaged just 2.8 catches per game. Under has cashed in 3 straight vs the Falcons' defense.

5-star bet on the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet this week.

Props:

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Erickson's Pick: Jaguars +3.5 (Over 46.5)

Confidence: ★★★

Trends:

  • Each of the Broncos’ last six games in December has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last five home games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Broncos have won 12 straight at home.
  • The Broncos have won each of their last 12 home games (7-0 at home this season, 4-3 ATS)
  • Eleven of the Broncos’ last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last five home games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Jaguars haven't lost since Week 10 - when they were 1.5-point road underdogs to the divisional rival Houston Texans. It took a 26-point fourth-quarter collapse for them to lose that game.
  • Six of the Jaguars' last seven road games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

I like the Jaguars +3.5. This feels like a tight game - two teams fighting for major AFC seeding, and Jacksonville is playing with a ton of confidence. Trevor Lawrence has been excellent, the defense is creating turnovers, and Josh Hines-Allen is wrecking games up front. Denver is always tough, but the Jags have already proven they can play at a high level on the road. With the hook, you can get bailed out even if they lose by a field goal - and I think Jacksonville is live to win outright.

Note that I also like the over in this game - both defenses rank first and second, respectively, in pass rate faced (62% plus).

Trevor Lawrence leads all qualified quarterbacks with 8.4 passing yards per attempt since Jakobi Meyers made his Jaguars debut in Week 10. Lawrence has the 2nd-most touchdown passes (14) and the 3rd-highest passer rating (102.4) among qualified quarterbacks in that span (Next Gen Stats).

RJ Harvey suffered a rib injury last week, but it looks like he will be okay for Week 16. However, rib injuries can be fickle - especially versus the No. 1 run defense in the NFL. The Jaguars are a pass funnel defense, facing the league's highest pass rate at 64%.

Sean Payton sometimes likes to use other RBs, and Harvey did fumble last week. Only RB has hit 16 carries vs the Jaguars since Week 4.

5-star bet on the prop bet cheat sheet this week.

Jakobi Meyers has recorded 61+ receiving yards in each of his four previous appearances against the Broncos.

Props:

Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans

Erickson's Pick: Raiders +14.5

Confidence: ★★★

Trends:

  • Four of the Texans' last five games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Houston is 2-4-1 O/U at home this season (43 PPG).
  • Houston is 4-11-1 O/U at home since the start of the last season (22%) as a home favorite…2-8-1 O/U.
  • Texans games have averaged just 37.3 points per game this season. 75% of their games have finished under 42.5 points. The Texans are an under factory – only two games have cleared 50, and nine landed below 40.
  • Twenty-two of the Texans' last 32 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Seventeen of the Texans’ last 29 wins have been by seven or fewer points (59%).
  • In each of the Raiders' last 12 games as road underdogs, their opponents have been the first to 10 points.
  • The Raiders have lost each of their last 13 games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Raiders have lost 10 straight as underdogs.
  • Fourteen of the Raiders' last 20 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Raiders have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 14 games as underdogs (3-7 in their last 10 games).
  • They are 2-5 ATS on the road (failing to cover in a consistent blowout fashion)

Overall:

If I can get Raiders +14.5, that's probably the way I'd play it - and I'd likely wait because this number can keep climbing. This is a classic "close your eyes" profile: ugly team coming off a humiliation, massive number, and it's hard for any team to cover this size spread in back-to-back weeks against that type of opponent. Do I think Houston wins? Absolutely. But when we look up, "Texans by 14" is a very realistic outcome, and that means the Raiders sneak in the backdoor cover with the biggest number available at 14.5 points.

Geno Smith is back in the fold after Kenny Pickett drew the start last week. He is definitely an upgrade - and I don't think that is being considered enough in the spread.

Per NGS...C.J. Stroud has completed a career-high 66.5% of his pass attempts against zone this season, averaging 7.2 yards per attempt, but also recording 6 interceptions (tied for 5th-most). The Raiders have deployed zone defense at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL (83.9%), allowing defenses to 7.5 yards per attempt a mark slightly above league average (7.3). Following their Week 8 bye, the Raiders have allowed the highest completion percentage (74.4%) when in zone coverage.

Ashton Jeanty has been increasingly used in the passing game, recording 34 receptions on 44 targets for 180 yards and 2 TDs following the Raiders’ Week 8 bye (Prior: 15 receptions on 20 targets for 86 yards, 2 TDs) according to Next Gen Stats.

His target rate has increased from 17.9% to 25.0% following the bye, accumulating 294 yards after the catch (3rd-most among running backs) and 12 missed tackles on his receptions (most among running backs).

Jeanty has over 3.5 receptions in all his games since Week 8 - when he wasn't facing the Denver Broncos defense (No. 1 defense in catches allowed to RBs this season). Houston is middle of the pack versus RBs in the passing game.

Nico Collins is getting disrespected. Shout out to Joe filling in for me on the Props Show (I lost power). But I have to follow this Collins pick. 65.5 yards? Please. He's gone over this 6/7 games - the only under versus Buffalo (stingy vs No. 1 WRs). Clearing 75 receiving yards PLUS.

Via Next Gen Stats... the Bills have held the opposing No. 1 wide receiver to fewer than 45 receiving yards in each of their last three games.

Nico Collins had 55 yards in that game versus Buffalo. DK Metcalf had 32 yards in Week 13, Ja’Marr Chase had 44 yards in Week 14, and Stefon Diggs was held to just 26 yards in Week 15.

Raiders? Not so much.

Take the over.

Props:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions

Erickson's Pick: Lions -7 (Over 51.5)

Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • The Lions are 0-5 ATS after a win.
  • The Lions have won 15 straight as favorites following a loss
  • The Lions have covered the spread in 11 of their last 12 home games following a loss.
  • The average total in the Lions’ last 35 home games has been 55.6 points; 72% (26-of-36) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
  • In 12 of the Lions' last 15 games as favorites, the total points line has gone OVER.
  • Sixteen of the Lions’ last 23 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Steelers have won each of their last seven road games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
  • The Lions have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games when playing with a rest advantage.
  • Each of the Lions’ last six games in December has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine road games.
  • The Steelers are 7-6-1 toward the Over this season.
  • The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six road games against teams that held a winning record.

Overall:

Where's the game being played? Detroit. Cool - give me the over and let's move on. That's the play for me right now. At least till I remembered how slow and sluggish the Steelers' offense likes to move with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. Woof.

The Lions, after a loss, are essentially an auto-bet at home ATS. Given the discrepancies between how each of these teams performs on the road/home, Detroit is the team to lay the points with. No T.J. Watt for the Steelers. LB Nick Herbig will also be out this week.

Kenneth Gainwell has recorded 25+ receiving yards in each of the Steelers’ last five games.

Per Next Gen Stats... The Steelers’ running backs have been crucial in the passing game this season.

Kenneth Gainwell is targeted at the highest rate among running backs (29.1%) and a team-high rate on late downs (30.2%), catching 21 of his 26 late-down targets for 124 yards (min. 100 season routes). A majority of Jaylen Warren’s targets (73.7%) have been behind the line of scrimmage; however, both backs have produced from these targets with 185 and 180 receiving yards. Warren and Gainwell have combined for 804 yards after the catch and 27 first downs.

However, this matchup versus Detroit is very much a strength-on-strength matchup.

Lions are allowing the second-fewest receiving yards to RBs per game (21.4).

Might want to just bet on the other RB in this game.

Jahmyr Gibbs has averaged a league-high 2.4 rushing yards before contact per carry, the most among 58 running backs with at least 50 carries (Next Gen Stats).

His efficiency is heavily weighted by two long runs in which he was never contacted, including a game-winning 69-yard touchdown in Week 12 against the Giants and a 78-yard touchdown in Week 7 against the Buccaneers. However, even if those two runs were not accounted for in his rushing totals, Gibbs would rank fifth among that same group of backs with an average of 1.6 rushing yards before contact per carry. The Steelers have allowed 0.9 yards before contact per carry to running backs this season, a mark just below league average (1.0). However, they have allowed over a yard before contact per carry in 4 of their last 6 games after doing so just once in their first 8 games.

The Steelers have ALSO missed a tackle on 14.0% of opportunities, the 5th-highest rate in the NFL, allowing 881 yards off missed tackles (4th-most). Gibbs has forced 67 missed tackles this season, the 7th-most in the NFL entering Week 16.

Projections have Gibbs going over 75.5 rushing yards this week. Over this 4/7 home games this season (under in 6/7 road games this season).

Props:

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