Week 15 of the NFL season is here, and to close things out, we’ll see the Miami Dolphins host the Pittsburgh Steelers. Here, you’ll find my top NFL Monday Night Football picks & player props.
The Steelers are coming off a massive Week 14 win, beating the Baltimore Ravens for sole possession of first place in the AFC North.
As for the Dolphins, don’t look now, but they’re 6-7 and are 5-1 over their last six games. They still have a chance at the postseason, but, of course, they need a lot to go their way, in addition to winning the rest of their games, which include the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New England Patriots.
All that said, below are the three best bets for this game.
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Week 15’s Best NFL Monday Night Football Picks & Player Props: Dolphins vs. Steelers
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dolphins +3 (-108)
The Steelers’ defense has had some issues lately, especially against the run. Over their last three games, the Steelers are allowing 188.3 rushing yards per game (31st). In that same span, the Dolphins are averaging 190.7 rushing yards per game, which is second-most in the NFL. Not only that, but they’ve been calling plenty of run plays lately at 59.09% over their last three (leads the NFL). Across the season, it’s still at a respectable 45.31% (13th).
As for the Steelers’ pass defense, they’ve allowed 244 yards per game, which ranks in the bottom six in the league. While that number is down to 185 over their last three games, there’s some needed context:
- Against the Chicago Bears, quarterback Caleb Williams threw for 239 yards and three touchdowns.
- Against the Buffalo Bills, the Bills had a lead throughout and didn’t need to throw the ball. Running back James Cook ran 32 times for 144 yards, while quarterback Josh Allen completed 15-of-23 passes and also had a rushing touchdown.
- Against the Ravens, quarterback Lamar Jackson had 219 passing yards, but he has not looked right for several weeks now.
I don’t think Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is winning the MVP award, but the Steelers’ pass defense has been atrocious this season. Don’t let their recent stats throw you off. The Dolphins could very well win this game outright at home.
De’Von Achane Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-130)
De’Von Achane is used as a do-it-all running back with a 20.2% target share this season, catching 55-of-73 passes for 383 yards and four touchdowns. As a runner, he’s had 193 carries for 1,126 yards and seven touchdowns, handling 65.4% of the running back carries.
Achanes faces a Steelers defense that’s allowed a lot of rushing production lately, including 4.91 yards per carry to the position over the last two games. Achane will get plenty of volume, and I’m willing to take a chance on him scoring a touchdown knowing that.
Greg Dulcich Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Greg Dulcich has been a solid option in the Dolphins’ passing game lately, catching seven of his nine targets for 83 yards. However, the Dolphins will have another week of fellow tight end Darren Waller on the field.
Yes, he’s been on the field the last couple of weeks and has caught three passes for 60 yards, but Waller will be even more involved as he continues to get up to speed from his injury that kept him out for over a month.
Not only that, but over the last two games, Waller has run a route on 66% of Tagovailoa’s dropbacks compared to Dulcich’s 46%. I expect him to be used more against a Steelers defense allowing over six catches for nearly 63 yards to the position. Dulcich will take a backseat.
